• Two options for miners
• Main issue

The harsh reality that miners face is unaffected by Bitcoin’s most recent surge toward $87,000. Profitability has plummeted to levels that are simply not economically viable. Miner Weekly’s breakdown is straightforward; the sector is operating underwater. 

Compared to the $44 per PH/s median all-in cost for large public miners, hash revenue has drastically decreased from about $55 per PH/s in Q3 to about $35 per PH/s today. For the majority of the industry, that is negative profitability rather than a margin squeeze. With network hashrate pushing near 1.1 ZH/s, competition keeps rising even as revenue evaporates. 

Two options for miners

1. Option 1: To burn reserves and hope for a price recovery.
2. Option 2: To capitulate, shutting down or liquidating hardware, which eventually forces difficulty downward. 

That is the key question: will difficulty fall again? Historically, yes. Bitcoin’s difficulty algorithm is not sentimental; if enough machines switch off, difficulty adjusts lower, restoring miner margins. The problem, however, is that public miners frequently have access to very cheap electricity contracts and hedging techniques that allow them to fight for longer than they should. That slows the capitulation cycle and prolongs the pain.

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Meanwhile, price action is not offering much relief. The chart still shows a structurally damaged trend with lower highs, significant sell-side volume and a clear rejection from the declining EMA cluster, despite Bitcoin’s attempt to recover from last week’s washout. Miners looking for a lifeline from price probably will not get one in the short term.

Main issue

ROI is the main structural issue. Even the newest rigs are showing payback periods above 1,000 days, while the next halving is roughly 850 days away. In simple terms, miners buying hardware today will not break even before block rewards are cut in half. That is one of the most hostile economic setups miners have ever faced.

Bitcoin mining is going through a purification phase, but it is not dead. Unless BTC reclaims momentum or difficulty finally cracks lower, the sector will see more forced shutdowns, consolidation and distressed asset sales. The miners with the deepest reserves and the lowest power costs will be the ones that survive this cycle. The rest are on borrowed time.

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