A cryptocurrency analyst pointed out based on technical indicators that the biggest pain point for Bitcoin in this cycle will be dropping to $55,000—rather than the $35,000 some predict.
As some predictions suggest, if it drops to $35,000, it would mean a 72% retracement.
This situation has happened before. Bitcoin fell 77% from its peak of $69,000 in November 2021, reaching a low of $15,500 a year later in November 2022.
However, analyst “Sykodelic” told his 62,000 followers on X on Tuesday that the prediction of Bitcoin crashing to $35,000 in 2026 is “pure nonsense.”
He stated, “For Bitcoin to retrace 75%, it actually needs to expand sufficiently first, which this cycle has not done.” He explained that such a retracement is possible because the level of expansion indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) “makes such a contraction possible.”
Bitcoin is currently down 31% from its peak of $126,000 in early October, which is not uncommon even in a bull market.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin's price has never fallen below the Bollinger Bands on a monthly level.
He compared this cycle to 2017, which saw significant gains, but the retracement still did not drop below the lower band of the monthly Bollinger Bands. He questioned why the deepest contraction would occur after the weakest expansion in history.
Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx exchange, told Cointelegraph that even a pullback to $55,000 is unlikely; he believes “the bear market scenario would bring Bitcoin back to the $65,000 to $68,000 range.”
He stated that the traditional four-year cycle structure is breaking down, and Bitcoin is now more institutionalized, “I don’t think we will see another 70%-80% retracement from historical highs.”
Meanwhile, Augustine Fan, head of insights at crypto trading software provider SignalPlus, indicated that if the “important support area of around $72,000 to $75,000” is lost, he will turn bearish.
“If it breaks down, it could trigger catastrophic stop-losses below, the consequences of which are currently unknown, given the DAT stop-loss sell volume, the impact on Strategy positions, and the feasibility under significant implied losses,” he told Cointelegraph.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin stabilized around $87,000, slightly recovering after dropping to $84,000 on Monday.
Related: Fed rate cut bets surge: Can Bitcoin (BTC) ultimately break through $91,000 to set a new high?
Original article: “Bollinger Bands Suggest Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Will Not Fall Below $55,000”
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