Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Continuing from yesterday's thoughts on Japan's interest rate hike, I want to reiterate that this recent rate hike by the yen is no joke. For the past decade or so, the whole world has been taking advantage of Japan's low rates, which have been practically free. Who wouldn't want a piece of that?

Institutions, retail funds, hedge funds—all have been using Japan's ultra-low interest rates, treating the yen like a free ATM. They borrowed a ton of yen, converted it to dollars, and went all in on high-risk assets.

U.S. tech stocks, Bitcoin, Ethereum, emerging market stocks—wherever there was a buying frenzy, they were there, benefiting from both interest rate differentials and asset appreciation. But now, the Bank of Japan has suddenly hinted at raising rates, even if it's just by 0.25%. The interest rate differential is gone, inverted, and the yen has surged.

If you borrowed 100 yen before, now you have to pay back 110 or 120. This has led to a financial stampede, first crashing Bitcoin, then U.S. stocks, and finally scrambling to exchange yen to pay off debts. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being thrown out, and of course, Bitcoin, which relies heavily on capital, will drop.

But do you think the Federal Reserve will step in to save us? It's hard to say now. The U.S. has a mountain of data, but at most, they might just hold rates steady and not withdraw liquidity, which isn't the same as injecting it. The expectations for a rate cut on the 12th are now like opening a blind box—whether it happens and how it happens is all shrouded in mystery.

Even if they do cut rates, it would only be a short-term sugar rush, and I still remain bearish. You have to acknowledge the current market conditions, whether you like it or not; I don't mind being criticized. This market operates on money flow, not logic.

Back to the market, Bitcoin's daily chart is locked in a range between 82K and 92K. I estimate this structure will take at least another month to play out, starting from November 21, just in time for Christmas.

83.4K is the lifeline for today's intraday bounce; if it holds, we can catch our breath. 82K is a double bottom on both the daily and weekly charts, while 80.6K is my identified first wave bottom, which is unlikely to break on the first attempt.

But if it does break, it will likely be pulled back immediately, resembling a second test. Don't be fooled by the current volatility; the real big moves haven't happened yet. What frustrates me the most is actually Bitcoin's monthly chart, where the left shoulder and head have already formed.

If we truly see a head and shoulders top, then next year, if it rebounds, it won't be able to surpass 100K, and the bear market will continue. Once a head and shoulders pattern is established, it's basically doomed. However, it's still a bit early to say that for next year; there are too many uncertainties in the Bitcoin space.

On the Ethereum side, the monthly death cross has just formed. If this trend continues, it wouldn't be surprising to see a similar five-month consecutive decline as we did from February to April this year. It currently can't stabilize at the Bollinger Band middle line of 3050, and the upper band at 4400 is out of the question; sliding down to the lower band is highly probable.

Last night’s drop to 2720 was completely within expectations, followed by a rebound in the early morning. But don’t think this means stability; there will be another round of testing at 2700 from afternoon to evening. Whether it breaks here will directly determine if it continues to languish or gives you another false rebound.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 90400

First Resistance Level: 88200

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 85100

Second Support Level: 84000

Currently, the most critical short-term support zone for Bitcoin is between 84K and 85K. As long as this range holds, it can be considered a higher bottom, providing a basis for further rebounds.

However, all the moving averages above are in reverse order, indicating a typical bearish structure. Therefore, the pressure zone from 88K to 90K is not something that can be easily broken. The RSI is at 44, indicating room for correction.

Today, the focus should be on the support band of 84K to 85K; as long as it holds, the rebound logic remains intact, and the defense is very short. If it pushes up to 88.2K and gets rejected, then 86K must hold; otherwise, the rebound will turn into a trap.

If the first resistance at 88.2K cannot hold, it will be a typical rebound top, leading to further downward adjustments. Once it breaks and stabilizes, we can expect it to retest and confirm support before challenging 90K.

12.2 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in the 87500-88200 range, Target: 86500-85100

If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they show screenshots of long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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