Bitcoin (BTC) threatens a new round of collapse, with the price rapidly dropping 5% at the beginning of December.
Bitcoin price volatility peaked at the monthly close in November, with BTC/USD falling to nearly $85,000.
Analysts attribute this to insufficient market liquidity, while historical warnings suggest that bearish sentiment may persist in December.
Despite concerns about Japan, the market continues to bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut, with key U.S. inflation data set to be released soon.
Due to the drop in Bitcoin prices, the Coinbase premium may end its brief "green" zone journey.
On Binance, stablecoin dry powder has reached a historic high relative to Bitcoin reserves.
Bitcoin's price action has returned directly to the range before Thanksgiving, surrounding weekly and monthly closes.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms that at the beginning of December, the market exhibited a typical "Bart Simpson" pattern.
Before a slight rebound, Bitcoin/USD hit a low of $85,616 on Bitstamp; monitoring platform CoinGlass shows that the liquidation scale exceeded $600 million within 24 hours prior to this report.
In response, some well-known market participants are not surprised by the bearish sentiment for the future. Trader Roman described a return to $50,000 as "inevitable."
$BTC 1W50k is inevitable. Be ready to buy. pic.twitter.com/OkNCceCCbE
"Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $88,000-$89,000 level here, or it will drop towards the November lows," warned crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows in a post on X.
When examining the long-term Bitcoin price trend, veteran trader Peter Brandt even revisited the idea of prices falling below $40,000.
Last week, Brandt warned that a rise in Bitcoin above $90,000 could constitute a "dead cat bounce," and he now doubts that this may have already ended.
Not to bust anyone's banana, but the upper boundary of the lower green zone starts at sub $70s with lower boundary support in the mid $40s. How soon before Saylor's Shipmates ask about the life-boats? $BTC pic.twitter.com/YLfjSDdw9H
Meanwhile, more optimistic forecasts focus on BTC/USD slowly reclaiming lost support within the range.
"Overall: this could form a range of $80,000-$99,000," trader CrypNuevo summarized in his latest post on X.
CrypNuevo identified several key levels that need to flip, including the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the annual opening price for 2025.
"What I’m mainly concerned about is that we are currently below the 1W50EMA, which is a strong bull/bear market indicator. Could it be a deviation? Yes. There have been such deviation histories in the past," he wrote.
The sudden drop in Bitcoin at the weekly and monthly candle close ended a dismal month filled with downward volatility for bulls.
Latest data from CoinGlass shows that BTC/USD fell 17.7% in November, marking the worst performance since the 2018 bear market.
Fourth-quarter losses currently total 24.4%, bringing Bitcoin's decline in line with the drop from $20,000 seven years ago.
As Cointelegraph reported, history suggests that "red" Novembers lead to similar performances at year-end.
In commenting on the dramatic monthly close, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that systemic market weakness is due to locked-in losses.
"As seen countless times this year, Friday nights and Sunday nights often come with massive cryptocurrency volatility. Just now, we saw Bitcoin drop $4,000 in minutes without any news," it wrote in a dedicated post on X.
Nevertheless, Kobeissi reiterated its view that the technical bear market in cryptocurrency—due to a drop of over 20% from historical highs—remains "structural."
"We do not believe this is a fundamental decline," it emphasized.
CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap shows new sell orders added above the spot market, with $85,000 serving as a nearby support area at the time of writing.
The Federal Reserve's "preferred" inflation indicator is set to make a long-awaited return after months of delays caused by the U.S. government shutdown.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will provide officials with key insights into inflation trends at a critical moment—less than two weeks before the Fed's next interest rate decision.
The market remains optimistic about the outcome, with CME Group's FedWatch tool assigning a probability of over 87% for a 0.25% rate cut at the time of writing.
Amid the tension before the weekly open, U.S. stock index futures fell due to concerns about financial stability in Japan, but this did not affect the outlook.
"Japan's 10-year government bond yield soared to 1.84%, the highest level since April 2008," The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a post on X.
In response to the latest market movements, former cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes explicitly blamed the downward volatility on the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
"$BTC is down because the BoJ is considering a rate hike in December. USDJPY 155-160 makes the BoJ hawkish," he explained.
A rate hike in Japan will stand out in an environment where a central bank continues to ease financial conditions.
"Financial conditions have loosened from one of the tightest levels since 2001 over the past two years. This move is similar to the situation after the 2008 financial crisis," Kobeissi summarized over the weekend.
After the Thanksgiving holiday, attention will turn to the first trading day in the U.S., as traders assess the demand for Bitcoin below $90,000.
The drop could have a significant impact on the Coinbase premium, a gauge of U.S. demand in the crypto industry that has just turned positive.
As Cointelegraph reported, the premium reflects the price difference between Coinbase's BTC/USD and Binance's BTC/USDT pairs. A positive premium indicates increased buying during U.S. trading hours, while the opposite is often seen as a signal of overall weakness in the crypto market.
Data from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant shows that the premium was in negative territory for almost all of November, only exiting during the Thanksgiving period.
In the comments, CryptoQuant contributor Cas Abbe provided potential glimmers of hope for Bitcoin bulls.
"There are some good signs of a bottom emerging now," he told followers on X over the weekend.
Abbe referenced Bitcoin's drop below $75,000 in the second quarter of this year, an event that has so far marked the long-term price bottom for Bitcoin.
Continuing, the well-known X account Against Wall Street suggested that premium signals need time to play out in both directions.
"Note: Just because the index turns red, we do not crash in a day. And when it turns green, we do not spike in a day either," part of a recent post on X read.
Amid concerns about the future of the crypto bull market, stablecoin trends point to a new round of massive capital deployment on the horizon.
CryptoQuant's tracking of stablecoin reserves on the world's largest exchange, Binance, shows a record high last week.
The ratio of stablecoins to Bitcoin reserves on Binance has never been so skewed towards the former.
"This free fall indicates an unprecedented accumulation of 'purchasing power'," contributor CryptoOnChain commented in a "Quicktake" blog post on Monday.
The post mentioned stablecoin liquidity as a method for rapid capital deployment when the market reverses, implying lasting confidence in the eventual occurrence of this move.
"When the ratio is so skewed towards stablecoins, it means the market is 'ready'," CryptoOnChain summarized next to a chart of the stablecoin ratio.
Related: Tether CEO slams S&P rating agencies and influencers spreading panic about Tether (USDT)
Original article: “BTC Drops to $50,000 ‘Inevitable’: 5 Things to Know About Bitcoin This Week”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
