The market experienced a significant drop this morning, with the price of Bitcoin falling from above 91,000 to around 87,000, a single drop of over 4,000 points, which is a standard rapid downward structure.

On Sunday, we had already made our viewpoint very clear:
This rebound should not be chased, and it is highly likely that a new downward trend will follow, testing the previous low point around 80,000, with the possibility of further declines not being ruled out.

This logic was also discussed in the video from the day before yesterday: after the rebound ends, look towards testing the previous low point.

The rhythm of the past few days: consistent viewpoints

For the past three days, the core viewpoint I have repeatedly emphasized is:
This rebound has ended, and the downward trend will restart.

My analysis habit is quite simple:
Direction is direction; I do not say ambiguous statements like "there may be an upward trend, and there may also be a downward trend."
If the market enters a phase that is difficult to judge, I will make it clear, but such situations are not common.

For example, when the market rebounded to a high point earlier, there was indeed a divergence point in direction:
— Whether to continue rebounding and move into a third wave upward,
— Or whether the rebound has ended and we directly enter a new downward phase?

At that time, it was indeed quite confusing, but the next day we updated our expectations and clearly leaned towards the second option:
Rebound ends → Downward trend starts → Test the previous low point.

Then on Saturday and Sunday, I further emphasized "weak upward momentum, imminent crash." Today's movement has basically validated this logic.

Why judge the end of the rebound? Core logic review

Many friends may still not fully understand why I have been emphasizing not to chase long positions since the high point, but rather to prioritize short opportunities. Here’s the logic once again:

① In a bearish trend, a "single-phase rebound" is unlikely to reverse the larger cycle.

In a bearish structure, a rapid rebound after a single phase low point essentially belongs to a "V-shaped rebound." This type of rebound usually does not drive a multi-cycle reversal, and subsequent movements often require retests, fluctuations, and then the construction of a new structure.

② Trading only focuses on high probability

While low probability scenarios can certainly occur, trading is about high probability, so we choose a more stable direction rather than blindly betting on a bottom reversal.

③ Do not chase long positions at high points, but look for opportunities to short

At the high point of the rebound, the first thing to clarify is:
Do not chase long positions.
Secondly, if you want to short, the stop-loss can be set above the previous high point, with clear risk and a reasonable structure.

Today's drop from 91,000 to 87,000 is exactly the realization of this logic.

④ Increased volume in a downward trend indicates main force participation

This drop has shown a significant increase in volume, indicating enhanced selling pressure, with spot or large orders being released.
After a volume-increasing drop, the market is more likely to continue to probe downward, making it relatively reasonable to expect a test of the previous low point, or even a drop below 80,000.

Ethereum: Continuing to weaken after breaking the channel

Channel break confirmed

After the previous turning point was broken, the rebound can be used to find positions for shorting.

Set the stop-loss above 3,100.

This drop has moved from just above 3,000 to just above 2,800, creating about 200 points of space in a short time, with overall strength being relatively concentrated.

Many people like to immediately close their shorts after such a sharp drop, but in reality, it is unnecessary. After a sharp drop, there are usually only two types of patterns:

A gradual drop continues downward

A gradual rise for recovery, followed by another sharp drop

It is almost impossible to see a "strong rebound immediately after a sharp drop," unless it is a clear spike. However, from the current 1-hour structure, there is no rapid recovery spike pattern.

Therefore, yesterday's judgment still stands, with the target continuing to look towards the previous low point around 2,650.

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