Crypto Circle News

December 1st Highlights:

1. Alliance DAO co-founder: The most objective measure of a "moat" is the expenditure/income ratio.

2. The Ethereum PSE team releases the OpenAC lightweight anonymous credential solution.

3. Telegram founder: The decentralized AI computing network Cocoon is officially launched.

4. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rises to 88% on Polymarket.

5. Paolo Ardoino responds to reserve doubts, stating that S&P ignores Tether Group's equity and U.S. Treasury yields.

Trading Insights

Large Stop Loss vs. Small Stop Loss: There is no "magical solution," only what fits your trading choices. The stop loss settings in trading never have a perfect answer of "both." A large stop loss has a high tolerance for error but incurs larger losses per trade, while a small stop loss incurs smaller losses but is easily triggered. As for "small stop loss making big money," it is essentially akin to a low-probability miracle, much like a binary lottery hitting 5 million, rather than a replicable trading logic.

Using a total stop loss amount of 1 million (with consistent margin), the core differences are clear:

1. Large Stop Loss: The "withstand volatility" logic behind a high win rate.

• Core Setting: A single stop loss directly set to 1 million.
• Core Advantage: Full tolerance, able to withstand short-term market fluctuations, resulting in a very high win rate (e.g., 9 wins, 1 loss), without frequently facing the frustration of stop loss triggers.
• Core Shortcoming: Once the stop loss is triggered, it results in a total loss, requiring extremely high psychological endurance and financial strength, with a significant impact per trade.

1. Small Stop Loss: The "high-frequency trial and error" logic for risk control.

• Core Setting: A single stop loss controlled at 100,000.
• Core Advantage: Smaller loss amounts per trade, lower psychological barriers, easier to accept, allowing for quick adjustments from losses, with more dispersed risk.
• Core Shortcoming: High trigger frequency, relatively lower win rate (e.g., 6 wins, 4 losses), requiring acceptance of a "frequent small loss" trading rhythm, testing execution ability.

Key Conclusion Both trading methods result in a total stop loss of 1 million after 10 trades, with no absolute "better":

1. Choosing a large stop loss is suitable for traders who can withstand large single losses and excel at capturing high-certainty trends.
2. Choosing a small stop loss is suitable for traders seeking stable risk and unable to accept large single losses.
3. Do not cling to the illusion of "small stop loss making big money"; the core of trading is to adapt to one's own risk tolerance, rather than pursuing unrealistic perfect balance.

LIFE IS LIKE

A JOURNEY ▲

Below are the real trading group orders from the Big White Community this week. Congratulations to the coin friends who followed along. If your operations are not going smoothly, you can come and test the waters.

The data is real, and each order has a screenshot from the time it was sent.

**Search for the public account: *Big White Talks Coins*

Bilibili and YouTube account: Daquan 777

BTC

Analysis

The Federal Reserve's rate cut can hedge some of the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's rate hike.

When Japan's medium to long-term yields rise rapidly and the global carry trade structure is forced to shrink, the pressure on the entire system concentrates on "compressed interest rate differentials" and "withdrawn financing." The Federal Reserve's rate cut can provide a buffer at these two points.

A. By lowering the cost of dollar financing to maintain the USD/JPY interest rate differential, the global carry trade can at least remain within an operable range, avoiding a collective breach that triggers systemic deleveraging. However, whether the interest rate differential can be maintained depends on whether the rate cut is greater than the speed of Japan's yield increase; otherwise, it can only partially offset and not truly maintain the differential.

B. The Federal Reserve's rate cut will bring new liquidity, allowing the market to have at least some new liquidity to counter the passive reduction pressure caused by the Bank of Japan's rate hike, thus avoiding liquidity withdrawal.

Since the beginning of this month, there has been a waterfall drop, and the focus remains on short positions. A rebound to around 87530-88400 can be an opportunity to short, with targets looking towards 86650-85650. If it drops to 85520-85288, one can try to catch a rebound with targets looking towards 86250-87400.

ETH

Analysis

The Federal Reserve's rate cut can only affect short-term financing costs and risk appetite, and cannot change the changes in Japan's domestic interest rate system. In the short term, the Federal Reserve's rate cut can stabilize sentiment, raise risk appetite, and mitigate the chain reaction of forced liquidations, but in the long term, the overall rise in Japan's interest rate structure will continue to exert pressure on global liquidity.

This situation can only be adapted to, but the return of Japanese funds does not equate to the return of global funds. The U.S. AI sector belongs to a structural track where global funds are concentrated, so U.S. tech stocks may still attract investments from Europe, the Middle East, and domestic U.S. funds, even if Japan contracts; other regions will still enter investments, including Japanese institutions and funds.

The Ethereum outlook also primarily focuses on short positions. A rebound to around 2860-2885 can be an opportunity to short, with targets looking towards 2800-2767.

Disclaimer: The above content is personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article has a certain lag. If you have any questions, feel free to consult.

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