- Market Overview: A Calm Weekend, Sudden Changes in the Morning
Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin remained in a sideways range around $90,800, with very low volatility. Although there was a spike to $92,000 last night, the momentum was clearly insufficient to sustain it.
Starting early this morning, Bitcoin faced renewed pressure, with a sudden drop in volume that caused the price to break below the $90,000 mark, reaching a low of around $87,000.
Ethereum's decline was even sharper, plummeting to $2,830, with significant selling pressure observed across many mainstream and altcoins, leading to a renewed weakening of market sentiment.
- Macroeconomics and Fundamentals: Diminished Positive Sentiment, Regulatory Pressure Resurfaces
On the macro front, the probability of a 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen back above 80%, and the spot Bitcoin ETF continues to see net inflows, which should stabilize market expectations. However, the rate cut expectations have already been priced in by the market, and the strength of last week's rebound has noticeably weakened.
More critically, the tightening regulatory news that emerged over the weekend has further limited market risk appetite, making funds more cautious in short-term trading.
In summary:
Positive sentiment ineffective → Regulatory tightening → Sentiment shifts back to a defensive mode.
- Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis: Rebound Stalled, On-chain Selling Triggers Downward Movement
From a trend structure perspective, Bitcoin's rebounds have repeatedly been constrained by the daily midline and the $93,000 resistance level, failing to achieve an effective breakout. After entering an overbought state on the four-hour chart, it retraced, and the continued sideways movement without new capital inflow has left the market in a wait-and-see mode.
The core trigger for today's decline is:
Sudden large-scale on-chain selling by institutions → Triggering follow-up selling + Leverage liquidations → Leading to accelerated declines
Currently, Bitcoin has almost completely erased last week's gains, highlighting the fragility of market sentiment.
Key Levels:
Resistance above: $90,000
Support below: $86,000 / $84,000
In the short term, bearish momentum is still being released on the four-hour and hourly charts, with a volume contraction correction appearing on the 15-minute chart. The rebound strength during the Asian and European sessions needs to be observed.
- Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis: Weaker than Bitcoin, Passive Amplification of Declines
Ethereum's sideways range over the weekend was narrower, but overall it remained relatively weak. This morning, as Bitcoin plunged, ETH's decline was significantly amplified, hitting a low of $2,830, completely retracing its previous rebound.
On-chain capital inflow remains weaker than BTC, and the ETF expectations have yet to bring actual incremental inflows, making ETH more susceptible to passive selling during sharp declines. Additionally, due to a high number of leveraged long positions, the liquidation chain has further amplified the decline.
Key Levels:
Resistance above: $2,900 / $2,960
Support below: $2,800 / $2,700
In the short term, ETH still needs to rely on Bitcoin stabilizing; otherwise, it is unlikely to show strong independent performance.
- This Week's Outlook: Major Macroeconomic Data May Once Again Dominate Market Trends
Key focuses for this week:
Public speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
ADP employment data (small non-farm)
Multiple economic and inflation indicators
If this week can further clarify the direction of rate cuts, cryptocurrency prices may receive short-term support. However, until there is a clear return of capital, rebounds are likely to remain weak corrections, and signals for trend reversals will still need confirmation from new capital flows and on-chain activity.
This article is exclusively published by (WeChat public account: Jian Crypto) and is for reference only. Trading itself is not difficult; the challenge lies in human psychology and self-discipline. I hope we can all continuously improve ourselves through learning, refine ourselves, and strive for long-term resilience.
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