On Friday, multiple cryptocurrency-related stocks surged as the probability of a rate cut in December on Polymarket skyrocketed to 87%, the highest level this month.
Three Bitcoin mining companies listed in the U.S. led the charge, with Cleanspark, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining all rising on the trading day, showing double-digit gains over the past five days.
According to Yahoo Finance, Circle, the issuer of USDC, jumped nearly 10% in early trading, while Michael Saylor's Strategy and Coinbase recorded more moderate gains at the time of writing.
Data from CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin (BTC) also rose about 7% this week after dropping to around $82,000 on November 21.
Most of the fluctuations priced in by the prediction markets this month were driven by comments from Federal Reserve officials.
On October 29, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut in December was "not a done deal," which investors interpreted as hawkish—indicating that the Fed might delay a rate cut and maintain a tight stance. The Polymarket odds fell from 89% the previous day to as low as 22% on November 20.
Market sentiment shifted on November 17 after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested that the central bank should consider a rate cut next month, noting that "the labor market remains weak and close to stagnation," and inflation is now "relatively close" to the Fed's 2% target.
Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, allow bettors to wager on the outcomes of real-world events, expanding their reach and influence this year.
On November 13, Polymarket signed a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to become the official prediction market partner for the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and Zuffa Boxing. This partnership was established shortly after collaborating with North American fantasy sports operator PrizePicks.
In the same month, according to a report by TechCrunch citing a knowledgeable source, Kalshi raised $1 billion from Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, bringing its valuation to $11 billion. This new funding round followed a $300 million raise in October.
On November 19, rumors emerged that Coinbase was developing its own prediction market platform after tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong published a screenshot of an unreleased website. Wong's image indicated that the product would be offered through Coinbase Financial Markets and supported by Kalshi.
On Wednesday, Robinhood announced that prediction markets have quickly become one of its fastest-growing revenue drivers, with over 1 million users trading 9 billion contracts since the product was launched in March through a partnership with Kalshi.
Related: Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) has not seen such "asymmetric risk-reward" since the COVID-19 pandemic
Original article: “As Cryptocurrency Stocks Climb, Polymarket Predicts December Rate Cut Odds Rise to 87%”
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