I just saw the data from CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) regarding the CPC (Total Put/Call Ratio).

From the trend of the CPC, as of November 28, 2025, the CPC has dropped to 0.70, right at the red dashed line in the chart. This line, when touched almost every time in the past three years, has indicated that the market has entered an "extremely optimistic or greedy" sentiment zone.

A high CPC ratio (>1.0) indicates panic and crowded hedging, often closer to the bottom, while a low ratio (<0.7–0.8) indicates that bullish trades significantly outnumber bearish trades, with investors consistently bullish, making it easier for the market to overextend its upward potential.

Now at 0.70, it indicates a clear bullish sentiment in the market. However, the CPC has reached a historically low area, suggesting that the sentiment recovery is not gradual but rather quickly pulled towards a short-term extreme, switching directly from caution to chasing gains. From a macro perspective, this can be understood as the market betting in advance on a dovish outcome from the December Federal Reserve meeting, including interest rate cuts and increases, leading to a significant rise in demand for call options.

The CPC being in this range does not mean the market will immediately peak, but rather indicates an increase in short-term volatility risk. The core risk of the CPC dropping to 0.70 is that buyers have already preemptively drawn on optimistic expectations.

The market has already priced in favorable expectations from the Federal Reserve into assets. Since the optimistic sentiment has been consumed by a large amount of call option trading, if the results of the December Federal Reserve meeting do not meet or are slightly below the extremely high expectations implied by the 0.70 ratio, the market will be very susceptible to a sharp pullback or volatility.

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