Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes published on Nov. 27 that traditional exchanges face an “adapt or die” inflection point as perpetual futures reshape how global markets price equities, indices, and eventually interest rates. He argued that crypto-native structures are overtaking legacy derivatives faster than regulators expected.
“Why will derivatives trading volume across the world and across all financial assets migrate from dated futures and options contracts to never-expiring perps?” he wrote. Hayes used that question to frame the structural tension between conventional clearinghouses and margin systems engineered for high-leverage, 24/7 participation.
The Bitmex co-founder noted that equity perpetuals are set to accelerate dramatically in 2026 as nonstop access and concentrated liquidity attract both speculative and hedging flow. He said the shift reflects growing demand across centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) crypto exchanges, which are positioned to expand their offerings as interest in perps rises. He opined:
Equity perps will become the hottest product of 2026, all DEXs and CEXs, like my beloved Bitmex, will offer them by the end of next year.
His analysis described how these contracts could become the preferred mechanism for managing overnight and weekend index risk, especially when geopolitical or macro announcements occur outside the limited operating hours of traditional exchanges.
Read more: Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Next Surge Is Locked in With Fed Liquidity Flood Rising
Hayes projected a rapid shift in benchmark price discovery toward crypto platforms if legacy exchanges do not overhaul their collateral and clearing models. “I predict that by the end of 2026, price discovery for the largest US tech stocks and the key US indices (i.e. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) will happen on perps markets serving retail,” Hayes explained. He suggested that political momentum in the United States may support expansive crypto-market development through 2029, giving regulators abroad room to align with the U.S. stance.
“If the US is embracing perps for whatever reason, it gives regulators permission to embrace them too,” he said. Hayes framed the outcome for traditional venues in stark terms:
Therefore, in 2025, it’s time for the TradFi to adapt or die to perps and other crypto innovations.
His outlook argues that exchanges unwilling to transition toward continuous, crypto-style derivatives could lose relevance as liquidity migrates toward platforms offering deeper leverage, tighter funding markets, and uninterrupted access.
- What market shift does Arthur Hayes predict for 2026?
He forecasts that equity perpetuals will surge as the hottest trading product, gaining dominance across exchanges. - Why does Hayes expect price discovery to move to crypto platforms?
He argues that perps’ nonstop access and liquidity will outpace legacy exchanges’ slower collateral and clearing systems. - How could U.S. political momentum influence global perp adoption?
Hayes says U.S. acceptance through 2029 could give international regulators cover to support similar crypto-market growth. - What risk do traditional exchanges face if they resist structural change?
Hayes warns they could lose relevance as traders shift toward continuous, high-leverage perp markets.
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