Introduction——

The essence of investment is never the frenzy of chasing highs and cutting losses, but the steadfastness that comes from slowing down. Time is the best partner, and compound interest is the most stable backing. There is no need to be anxious about short-term fluctuations; as long as the direction is correct and the steps are steady, the patience and foresight that quietly accumulate will eventually ferment over time, rewarding you with surprises beyond expectations.

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $90,700, having retreated from the $93,000 high reached last night. The past 24 hours have still been a period of fluctuation. The market in the past two days has been quite interesting; the macro environment has provided ample confidence, but the technical aspect has been consistently "stuck," showing a typical pattern of "positive news supporting the bottom but lacking breakthrough strength."

Let’s first look at the most stable macro aspect, which is the core support of the current market. CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has stabilized around 87%. New York Fed President Williams and other officials have repeatedly released dovish signals recently, clearly indicating that the cooling labor market leaves room for rate cuts. As a result, the dollar index fell on the 28th, and risk asset sentiment fully warmed up, with U.S. stocks and gold rising in tandem, naturally giving Bitcoin a tailwind. The funding aspect has also shown signs of "bottoming out and rebounding." Last week, there was a recorded outflow of $1.94 billion in crypto products, but this week, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted nearly $129 million in net inflows, and the selling pressure on core products like BlackRock's IBIT has significantly eased, with Fidelity's FBTC seeing a weekly inflow of $108 million.

Now looking at the technical aspect, we are in a typical "accumulation before a trend change." On the daily chart, the situation is still quite positive; the RSI indicator has climbed back from the previous oversold range, and the MACD has shown a bullish crossover. The technical formation is repairing, resonating with the bullish arrangement of short-term moving averages, and the step-like support is gradually solidifying. However, there are also prominent issues: with the rebound, the mid-line of the daily chart around $93,000 is encountering strong resistance (which is also the high point of $93,038 reached last night), and this is a dense trading area where it lingered for a long time during the previous decline. On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands' upper and lower bands are gradually narrowing, and the MACD is slowly increasing in bearish volume. The five-day and ten-day lines on the hourly chart are repeatedly crossing, indicating that both bulls and bears are still in a stalemate. Although trading volume has increased, it is insufficient to support a breakthrough; external funds must break the balance.

Personally, I feel that the current market rebound may still lack a push, needing a large institutional fund to ignite the fire. The rising probability of a rate cut in December has already made the market less responsive, and while the continuous inflow of spot ETF funds is supporting prices, it is not strong. This indicates that cautious sentiment in the market has not dissipated.

Support should be viewed in two layers: $90,000 serves as the recent fluctuation center. After a rise last night, it quickly rebounded to $90,155, verifying the effectiveness of the support; below, $88,000 is the lower edge of the fluctuation, and maintaining it can sustain a strong pattern. The resistance at $93,000 is significant, not only as yesterday's high but also as the "key" to opening up the upward space of $95,000-$97,000. A breakthrough will trigger a large amount of follow-up buying.

The low liquidity over the weekend is likely to continue the narrow fluctuations, and there may even be amplified volatility due to small fund movements. However, the real showdown will be next Monday—this week's ETF net inflow of nearly $129 million has provided confidence, but to break through $93,000, large buy orders from institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity will be needed next Monday. If the market can stabilize above $93,000 with increased volume after opening, the rebound trend will be firmly established; if it remains stagnant without breaking through, it may retest $89,000-$88,000 to confirm support. Overall, the macro support from rate cut expectations is still in place, so there is no need to panic; focus on the volume and institutional movements after the market opens next Monday.

Investment Strategy Recommendations: Grasp the rhythm of fluctuations and control positions reasonably

Short-term trading range reference

• Long position strategy: Buy near $89,000-$89,500 on price pullbacks, target $90,500-$91,000

• Short position strategy: Short near $92,000-$93,000 on price rebounds, target $91,000-$90,500

[Friendly Reminder: Market conditions change rapidly; suggestions are for reference only. For more real-time consultations, feel free to communicate with me online.]

I really like a saying by Buddha: "No matter who you meet, they are the person who is meant to appear in your life, not by chance; they will definitely teach you something." So I also believe: "Wherever I go, that is where I am meant to be, experiencing what I am meant to experience, meeting the people I am meant to meet." Thank you to everyone reading this article for our encounter!

This article is exclusively published by (WeChat Official Account: Jian Crypto) for reference only. Trading itself is not difficult; the challenge lies in human nature and self-discipline. I hope we can all continuously improve ourselves through learning, refine ourselves, and become stronger for a longer time.

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