Gate Research Institute: The cryptocurrency market is experiencing fluctuations and building a bottom, with structural differentiation observed in the AI and small to mid-cap sectors.

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2 hours ago

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

According to CoinGecko data, from November 11 to November 24, 2025, global risk assets weakened under the impact of macro factors such as concerns over a "bubble" in the AI sector, stronger-than-expected employment data, and a sharp downgrade in interest rate cut expectations, leading to pressure on the cryptocurrency market. In terms of market performance, BTC and ETH saw a low-level recovery rebound from November 19 to 20 after a continuous decline, rising to the ranges of $86,600 and $2,780 to $2,820, respectively, but overall remained in a volatile bottoming pattern; some tokens performed strongly against the trend, showing bright results.【1】

On the ecological and news front, Arbitrum continued to attract incremental funds, while ecosystems like Solana and Base, which were in a recovery phase, also warmed up. However, there was a significant outflow from the Ethereum mainnet and Hyperliquid, with on-chain structures entering a "capital redistribution" phase. Meanwhile, the on-chain tokenization scale of stocks and ETFs has approached $10 million, with Robinhood positioning it as core infrastructure, pushing Arbitrum from a DeFi active chain to an institutional-level settlement hub. Regarding Ethereum, Vitalik released the Kohaku privacy framework, elevating privacy as a primary attribute on-chain; Nvidia emphasized that the AI revolution has not yet peaked, providing long-term support for the AI + on-chain narrative. On the other hand, the DAT sector faced significant valuation compression during the market correction, with total market capitalization falling below $1 trillion, and leading companies experiencing a decline in premiums or even discounts, as the industry entered a period of intertwined active and passive deleveraging adjustments.

On the macro level, a key turning point for the market came from Federal Reserve Chairman Williams' speech on Friday—his clear advocacy for interest rate cuts as a key ally of Powell led to a sharp increase in market expectations for a rate cut in December, rising overnight from 30% to 70%, improving risk appetite. Overall, the combination of global macro pressures and the rotation of on-chain capital structures has pushed the market into a phase of "risk repricing + technical recovery," with a significant increase in sensitivity to policy signals and liquidity changes. Despite short-term pressures, the acceleration of institutional entry, the on-chain transformation of stock assets, the recovery of mainstream ecosystems, and the expansion of cross-chain settlement scenarios indicate that medium- to long-term trends remain unchanged, with the market still in a reshaping cycle of coexistence between risks and opportunities.

Overview of Price Fluctuations

This article groups and analyzes the top 500 tokens by market capitalization, observing their average price changes from November 11 to November 24.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market exhibited a comprehensive correction, with the top 500 tokens recording an average decline of approximately -12% to -16% across five ranges, resulting in an overall average of -14.99%. Among them, the market capitalization range of 100–200 saw the deepest decline (-16.43%), indicating that mid- to large-cap assets were under the most pressure amid liquidity tightening; conversely, the 300–400 market capitalization range experienced a relatively smaller decline (-12.02%), reflecting that small-cap tokens did not see further accelerated selling in a low liquidity environment.

In general, this round of adjustments is characterized by "synchronous corrections across all sectors, lacking clear relative strength," with the market still in a phase of deleveraging dominated by macro pressures.

Note: The market capitalization distribution is based on CoinGecko data, grouping the top 500 tokens by market capitalization into sets of 100 (e.g., rankings 1–100, 101–200, etc.), calculating the price changes of tokens within each group from November 11 to November 24, 2025, and computing the average for each group as an indicator of average price change for that market capitalization range. The overall average decline (14.99%) is the unweighted average of individual price changes for the top 500 tokens.

Figure 1: The overall average decline is 14.99%, with this round of adjustments characterized by "synchronous corrections across all sectors, lacking clear relative strength."

  • Top Gainers and Losers

In the past two weeks (from November 11 to November 24), the cryptocurrency market showed significant differentiation under the intertwining of macro pressures and narrative rotations, with some tokens experiencing drastic fluctuations, highlighting that market sentiment remains in a high volatility range.

  • Top Gainers: Application and Niche Narrative Tokens Lead, BEAT Takes the Crown

In this round of top gainers, BEAT topped the market with an astonishing increase of 436.92%, becoming the strongest focus of attention. BEAT is an application token positioned in the "AI Music + Virtual Idol" scenario, allowing users to generate AI tracks, interact with AI Idols, and participate in creator tasks. This period saw BEAT surge by 436.92%, possibly driven by infrastructure benefits from Audiera's announcement of a partnership with Endless Protocol, coupled with the continued heating of the AI narrative, making BEAT an attractive high-elasticity asset for short-term funds. Its small market capitalization, strong community, and high dissemination further amplified its gains, making it the strongest structural target this period.

Following closely are AVICI (+67.93%) and TEL (+66.47%), both benefiting from active communities, narrative extensions, and strengthened trading dynamics, which provided sustained upward momentum. Other tokens like FOLKS, B, QRL, and WFI also recorded gains ranging from 13% to 37%, indicating that this period's funds were more concentrated on "mid- to small-cap + clear selling points" strong hedging assets.

  • Top Losers: Speculative and Early Narrative Tokens Face Concentrated Corrections, SOON Leads the Decline

In contrast, SOON saw a decline of 69.33%, leading the market down, reflecting a rapid cooling of previously overheated short-term sentiment. Following it were USELESS (-54.55%) and PLUME (-54.34%), both exhibiting typical rapid warming followed by a pullback for thematic assets.

Additionally, tokens like COAI, TIBBIR, CCD, and BRETT saw declines ranging from -43% to -52%, concentrated in Meme, AI concepts, and low liquidity emerging tokens, reflecting a significant decrease in market tolerance for high Beta assets during the capital contraction phase.

Overall, funds have flowed back from high-volatility speculative assets to more certain tracks, and the overall performance of gains and losses indicates that the market style is gradually shifting from previously hyped short-term narratives to structurally logical medium- to long-term sectors. High-volatility, small-cap, community-driven thematic coins faced significant pullbacks this period, while tokens with actual products, user bases, or narrative implementation space were better able to attract funds. As the market enters a risk repricing phase, assets with "strong consensus + clear applications + trading support" are still expected to maintain relative strength in a volatile market.

Figure 2: BEAT, with an astonishing increase of 436.92%, topped the market, possibly driven by infrastructure benefits from Audiera's announcement of a partnership with Endless Protocol, attracting concentrated short-term funds into high-elasticity assets.

  • Market Capitalization Ranking and Price Fluctuation Relationship

To observe the structural characteristics of token performance in this round of market conditions, this article presents a scatter distribution chart of the top 500 tokens by market capitalization. The horizontal axis represents market capitalization ranking (the further left, the larger the market capitalization), while the vertical axis represents price fluctuations from November 11 to November 24. Each dot in the chart represents a token, with green indicating an increase and red indicating a decrease.

Overall, the number of declining tokens significantly exceeds that of increasing tokens, with most projects concentrated in the -10% to -25% range, indicating that the market remains in a weak recovery phase under macro pressures and sentiment decline. Tokens with significant increases are relatively scarce and highly concentrated in the mid- to small-cap range of rankings 200–500, reflecting a preference for high-elasticity and theme-driven assets rather than stable large-cap coins.

Among the rising projects, BEAT (+436%), AVICI (+67.93%), and TEL (+66.47%) stand out as the three highlights, overall presenting a structure of "extreme strength + high theme-driven" characteristics; all three are located in the mid to lower market capitalization segment, further reinforcing the characteristic of "small-cap thematic coins occupying the main axis of increases" this period.

Conversely, significantly declining tokens like SOON, COAI, USELESS, and PLUME are mostly concentrated in the long-tail assets beyond the 250th market capitalization rank, generally recording pullbacks of -50% to -70%, exhibiting a typical structure of "previous speculation retreat + capital withdrawal." This range has the most severe fluctuations and is the main source of pressure in this round of market adjustments.

Overall, the price characteristics of the market this period can be summarized as "large caps relatively stable, mid- to small caps experiencing drastic differentiation; strong projects highly concentrated, weak projects broadly correcting." Funds are increasingly favoring short-term sentiment targets in a volatile market, amplifying the volatility of mid- to lower market capitalization tokens, and reflecting that current market risk appetite remains primarily focused on short-term trading.

Figure 3: The scatter distribution of price fluctuations among the top 500 tokens shows that rising projects are mostly concentrated in the mid to lower market capitalization segment, while declining projects cover a broader range, with clear structural differentiation.

  • Top 100 Market Capitalization Rankings

In this round of volatile market conditions, the performance of the top 100 tokens by market capitalization showed clear differentiation, with mainstream assets exhibiting limited overall volatility, while some projects with narrative advantages or safe-haven attributes still performed strongly against the trend.

On the gainers' list, ZEC (+7.38%) led the rise, with the privacy sector gaining renewed attention amid rising market risk aversion, resulting in active capital inflow. BCH (+5.97%) continued its recent strong structure, benefiting from increased on-chain activity and strengthened payment-related narratives. PI (+4.04%) and WBT (+3.52%) also recorded slight increases, reflecting a relatively stable capital preference within this range, leaning towards projects with existing ecosystems or stable growth paths. Overall, the rising projects among the top 100 by market capitalization exhibited relatively moderate gains, mostly belonging to a "stable upward + fundamental support" structure.

On the losers' list, PUMP (-41.12%) saw the deepest decline, reflecting the severe pullback of thematic tokens after the retreat of short-term capital. ICP (-39.09%) and FIL (-35.43%) also ranked among the top decliners, primarily affected by a decrease in macro risk appetite and profit-taking after previous gains; SUI (-34.72%) and NEAR (-32.97%) also showed significant pullbacks, indicating that high Beta public chains faced greater price pressure during periods of increased volatility. Overall, the projects with the largest declines were mostly high-elasticity tokens that had previously seen significant gains and were strongly narrative-driven, experiencing more pronounced pullbacks in this round of market adjustments.

In summary, the top 100 assets exhibit a structural characteristic of "stable projects slightly rising, thematic and high Beta projects significantly declining." Funds are increasingly favoring tokens with strong certainty and mature ecosystems in a volatile market, while exposure to short-term thematic assets has clearly contracted, indicating a phase of cooling risk appetite.

Figure 4: Among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization, ZEC continues to lead the rise, with the privacy sector gaining renewed attention amid rising market risk aversion, resulting in active capital inflow.

Analysis of Current Volume Performance

  • Trading Volume Growth Analysis

In addition to price performance, this article further analyzes the trading volume changes of certain tokens to observe market activity and capital participation levels. Using the trading volume before the market launch as a baseline, the growth multiples are calculated and compared with the price rebound during the same period to assess market attention and short-term capital trends.

Data shows that the five projects with the most significant trading volume growth this period are AGENTFUN, XSO, EETH, SWOP, and NMR. Among them, AGENTFUN's trading volume increased by 15.31 times, but its price fell by 24.72%, presenting a typical "volume increase, price decrease" structure, reflecting the retreat of previously popular themes, the withdrawal of speculative capital, and increased selling pressure, indicating clear short-term speculation but insufficient sustained capital. XSO's trading volume increased by 14.81 times, with a slight price rebound of 2.76%, representing a "volume recovery but trend not effectively formed" pattern, showing that capital is mainly concentrated on liquidity testing and active order books rather than trend-driven increases; such assets need to be observed for whether they can form a robust structure after the volume increase.

EETH's trading volume increased by 10.62 times, while its price still fell by -19.57%, indicating a phase of adjustment after pressure release and previous price gains, suggesting that on-chain capital is becoming more cautious during periods of increased volatility. SWOP and NMR exhibited a "volume increase, price stable" structure, indicating a rise in capital attention, but buying remains cautious, reflecting a market more in observation and waiting mode.

Overall, the projects with increased volume this period generally exhibit a structural characteristic of "capital warming but price under pressure," with volume increases primarily driven by short-term liquidity, arbitrage demand, or portfolio adjustments after thematic retreats, rather than the initiation of a trending market. Capital remains concentrated on exploring local themes and structural opportunities, but sustainability has not been established, reflecting that current market risk appetite remains weak, with a stronger short-term trading atmosphere.

Figure 5: Tokens like AGENTFUN, XSO, and EETH saw significant increases in trading volume this period, but most did not form a trending rebound, presenting a volume-price divergence structure, highlighting that market capital is more inclined towards short-term and liquidity-driven strategies.

  • Trading Volume Changes and Price Analysis

Building on the observation of trading volume anomalies, this article further combines price performance to create a scatter distribution chart of trading volume growth multiples (Volume Increase Multiple) and price changes (Price Change %). The horizontal axis represents the growth multiple of a token's trading volume compared to the baseline period over the past two weeks, while the vertical axis represents the percentage change in price during the same period, using a symmetric logarithmic coordinate axis to clearly present the structural relationship between "volume increase" and "price changes."

From the overall distribution, most tokens are concentrated in the area of low trading volume increase with limited price gains, indicating that the market overall remains in a weak recovery and oscillation structure, with limited incremental capital and cautious short-term capital operations. The number of declining tokens significantly exceeds that of rising tokens, reflecting that under macro pressures and weak sentiment, the market is still primarily focused on deleveraging and structural adjustments. Notably, projects with outstanding price performance often recorded significant gains under conditions of "volume not significantly increased," such as QRL, which entered a high range with over 20% gains, but its trading volume only increased moderately, indicating that its rise is mainly driven by narrative rather than volume, exhibiting a typical "low volume, strong rebound" characteristic.

Conversely, some tokens with trading volume increases exceeding 8 to 12 times (such as CUSD0, IUSDS, USDT, XSO) still saw price performances falling between -5% to +5%. Among them, CUSD0, IUSDS, and USDT are mostly stablecoins or stablecoin-derived assets (such as interest-bearing dollars, synthetic dollars, or liquidity pool split assets), with their prices anchored to the dollar, thus even with significant volume increases, they do not produce trend-driven price breakthroughs. The high multiple trading of these assets reflects more arbitrage, staking redemptions, pool rebalancing, or on-chain risk-averse liquidity rather than genuine buying pressure. This structure indicates that capital is more inclined towards short-term trading, liquidity testing, and stable asset reallocation rather than trend-based positioning in risk assets.

Overall, the market this period exhibits a typical state of "structural rotation + volume-price mismatch," with mainstream asset trading volumes showing no significant improvement and trends remaining weak; the drastic fluctuations of mid- to small-cap tokens are more driven by sentiment and narrative rather than broad capital consensus; high multiple volume increases have not led to price rises, indicating that market risk appetite remains low; individual rising projects are mostly "low volume, strong," with risk-return structures leaning more towards short-term speculation.

Figure 6: Most tokens are concentrated in the area of low trading volume increase with limited price gains, indicating that the market overall remains in a weak recovery and oscillation structure, with limited incremental capital and cautious short-term capital operations.

  • Correlation Analysis

After exploring the linkage between trading volume and price performance, this article further analyzes the systematic correlation between the two from a statistical perspective. To measure the impact of capital activity on price volatility, the "trading volume growth rate / market capitalization" is used as a relative activity indicator, and its correlation coefficient with price changes is calculated to identify the types of tokens most susceptible to capital-driven movements in the current market.

From the chart, it can be seen that most tokens' correlations fall within the range of 0.65–0.90, indicating that under the backdrop of intensified macro volatility, the market still exhibits a highly interconnected structure. However, subtle differences between sectors reveal current capital preferences and structural rotation characteristics.

Among them, the tokens with the highest correlations (>0.90) such as XSO, FLUID, ELF, MOVE, and BEAT are mostly related to trading narratives, AI applications, or high Beta themes—these assets are most sensitive to market sentiment and exhibit "amplified market movements" during price fluctuations. These tokens often have strong community engagement and high-frequency trading attributes, making them susceptible to short-term liquidity drives, forming the most concentrated group in this period's correlation structure.

The lower correlation range (0.65–0.75) is represented by BCH, XVG, WFI, DCR, and WLFI, with BCH and WLFI showing significantly larger market capitalization sizes in the bubble chart. These projects are mostly infrastructure-type or assets with long-term storage value, whose price fluctuations are less affected by macro factors and more dependent on their own ecological progress or on-chain demand, such as BCH's payment narrative and long-term stock demand, allowing it to maintain a relatively independent trend even during significant market fluctuations.

Overall, the correlation distribution this period presents the following three structural characteristics: High Correlation = High Beta Themes: AI, trading narratives, community-driven assets are highly synchronized with the market, acting as "amplifiers" for market bullish and bearish transitions. Medium Correlation = Functional and Tool Protocols: They fluctuate with the market but retain their narrative independence. Low Correlation = Value and Infrastructure Assets: Such as BCH and WLFI, exhibiting relatively stable performance and greater defensive attributes.

Figure 7: High correlation tokens are concentrated in high Beta and trading narrative projects, while relatively independent value assets like BCH and WLFI exhibit lower correlations, reflecting the current market's structural layering.

This round of the cryptocurrency market continues structural rotation under macro pressures, with the average decline of the top 500 tokens at 14.99%, reflecting that the overall market is still in a deleveraging phase. Although most large caps fall between -10% to -25%, mid- to small-cap themes still show highlights, with BEAT, AVICI, and TEL rising strongly driven by AI × entertainment and community momentum; conversely, high Beta projects like SOON and USELESS have seen significant pullbacks, indicating a clear retreat in sentiment sectors. Trading volumes generally exhibit "volume increase, price decrease" and "volume increase, price stable" patterns, as AGENTFUN and EETH, despite increasing volume by 10–15 times, continue to decline, reflecting that capital is leaning towards short-term liquidity testing rather than trend positioning, with the overall volume-price structure still showing weak recovery.

In addition to trading conditions, several potential airdrop projects are also being actively promoted, covering popular directions such as AI, Layer 2, social points, and identity verification. If users can grasp the rhythm and continue to participate in interactions, they are expected to gain early positioning in a volatile market, obtaining token incentives and airdrop qualifications. The following will outline four noteworthy projects and participation methods to assist in systematically laying out Web3 dividend opportunities.

Airdrop Hot Projects

This article organizes potential airdrop projects worth focusing on from November 11 to November 24, 2025, covering several early-stage projects such as 42 (formerly Alkimiya, a community-driven prediction market), Self Protocol (decentralized identity protocol DID + points mechanism), Block Street (an on-chain stock simulation platform built on Monad), and NUVA Finance (a pre-launch yield platform in the Animoca ecosystem). Users can accumulate contribution records by connecting wallets, completing testnet interactions, participating in social tasks, and completing identity verification to secure potential airdrops or token incentive qualifications.

  • 42

42 (formerly Alkimiya) is a reimagined prediction market project that recently completed a brand upgrade, fully transitioning to building a new generation of prediction protocols and community incentive systems. The official main platform has not yet launched, but a waiting list and community task system have been opened, allowing users to gain Beta access qualifications and potential future rewards by submitting their wallet addresses, X usernames, and participating in Discord activities. 42 emphasizes community participation, content creation, and interaction, selecting active contributors through multi-week themed competitions (such as memes, animations, artistic creations, etc.) and providing internal testing codes, OG identities, or potential future incentives.【2】

Participation Methods:

  1. Join the Waitlist and submit your X account.

  2. Participate in Discord community tasks to accelerate obtaining Beta access.

  • Self Protocol

Self Protocol is a decentralized identity protocol centered around Decentralized Identity (DID), recently launching a new "Points Farming" program. Users only need to install the official app and complete identity verification to start accumulating Self Points. Currently, there is no clear token price for the points, but they are likely to serve as a basis for future mainnet incentives or airdrop qualifications. The official requirement is to use a passport for identity verification to ensure the uniqueness of identity and the authenticity of points, highlighting the real application direction of its DID scenario.【3】【4】

Participation Methods:

  1. Download the Self App (iOS / Android) and create an account.

  2. Complete identity verification (KYC) to start accumulating Self Points.

  • Block Street

Block Street is a decentralized "on-chain stock market" simulation platform built on the Monad testnet, allowing users to trade, lend, mortgage, and purchase simulated stock assets using test tokens. The project recently completed a $11.5 million funding round and launched a public testing activity on its official website, where users can earn BSD points through daily tasks, inviting friends, and asset trading. BSD currently belongs to testnet points but is likely to become the basis for future mainnet tokens, early testing user airdrops, or rewards before the official launch.【5】

Participation Methods:

  1. Visit the official website to connect your wallet and enter the test dashboard.

  2. Complete daily login tasks and other community sharing tasks to earn points.

  • NUVA Finance

NUVA Finance is a decentralized asset management and yield platform supported by Animoca Brands, currently conducting pre-launch activities. Users can obtain early qualifications by completing social tasks and minting a Genesis Pass. The Genesis Pass will provide point multipliers in the main activities and may influence NUVA Token airdrops or additional rewards before the mainnet launch, representing a typical "pre-launch qualification + point bonus" type of activity.【6】

Participation Methods:

  1. Visit the official website to log in to your account.

  2. Complete social tasks such as following NUVA Finance on X and LinkedIn; after completing the tasks, you will gain the qualification to mint the Genesis Pass.

Note

Airdrop plans and participation methods may be updated at any time, so users are advised to follow the official channels of the above projects for the latest information. Additionally, users should participate cautiously, be aware of risks, and conduct thorough research before participating. Gate does not guarantee the issuance of subsequent airdrop rewards.

Summary

Looking back at the period from November 11 to November 24, 2025, the cryptocurrency market underwent a comprehensive correction under the pressures of AI bubble concerns, strong employment data, and expectations of interest rate cuts. However, BTC and ETH experienced a technical recovery at low levels from November 19 to 20, with the overall market showing a consolidation structure. On-chain capital simultaneously entered a redistribution phase, with Arbitrum continuing to receive incremental inflows, while ecosystems like Solana and Base warmed up, and Ethereum mainnet and Hyperliquid saw significant capital outflows; the on-chain scale of stocks and ETFs approached $10 million, pushing Arbitrum closer to becoming an institutional-level settlement hub. The average decline of the top 500 tokens was about 15%, with mid-cap (market cap 100–200) experiencing the deepest declines, while mid- to small-cap tokens exhibited the most volatility, with BEAT recording a 436% increase, becoming the strongest rebound asset, alongside thematic coins like AVICI and TEL; conversely, previously overheated assets like SOON, USELESS, and PLUME fell back by 50–70%, reflecting characteristics of "high Beta retreat and structural differentiation."

In terms of volume and price, there was also a clear mismatch, as projects like AGENTFUN, XSO, and EETH saw volume increases of 10–15 times but did not form a trending rebound, indicating that the market was primarily focused on arbitrage and liquidity testing; increases were more concentrated in the market cap range of 200–500, with high correlation tokens like XSO, BEAT, and MOVE being sensitive to sentiment, while value assets like BCH and WLFI exhibited relatively independent trends. Overall, the market has entered a phase of "structural rotation + volume-price divergence," with short-term capital leaning towards cautious positioning, while mid-term opportunities remain structurally available.

Additionally, the tracked projects 42, Self Protocol, Block Street, and NUVA Finance are all in active incentive phases, focusing respectively on building prediction markets, identity verification and DID ecosystems, on-chain stock simulation and trading, and the pre-launch points system of a yield platform, with complementary ecological positioning and clear incentive paths. Users can complete interactions, tests, invitations, or social actions according to each project's task requirements to enhance their points and potential airdrop weight. It is recommended to continuously monitor the announcement rhythm and task updates of each project to accelerate the accumulation of early participation dividends.

References

  1. CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/

  2. 42, https://www.42.space/

  3. Apple, https://apps.apple.com/app/self-zk-passport-identity/id6478563710

  4. Google, https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.proofofpassportapp&pli=1

  5. Block Street, https://blockstreet.money/dashboard

  6. NUVA Finance, https://app.megaphone.xyz/pages/nuvafinance

Gate Research Institute is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides readers with in-depth content, including technical analysis, hot insights, market reviews, industry research, trend forecasts, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer

Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risks, and users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products they are purchasing before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.

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