"Why Did I Go All In on CRCL?"
[Dayu 20251128, CRCL 75]
- There are only three businesses in the future crypto world
BTC, stablecoin expansion, trading
BTC and trading don't need further explanation; everyone understands.
Stablecoins are the strongest weapon in the crypto world, backed by the U.S. debt reduction, a new digital dollar order, a grand strategy.
- First, let's define
Stablecoins are a good business, the best business in the world.
Bitcoin is humanity's first mastery of private property.
Compliant stablecoins are the first time the public shares the right to mint currency.
Printing money, collecting interest worldwide, simple and straightforward.
But why CRCL? What about USDT?
- USDT does not comply, cannot comply, and does not need to comply.
USDC was born for compliance, with COINBASE as a shareholder responsible for promotion and distribution. BlackRock signed a memorandum with USDC: you deposit with me, I help you promote and guarantee no other stablecoins.
JPMorgan (the giant that offloaded MicroStrategy) plans to use USDC as collateral next.
Once the stablecoin legislation is implemented, USDT will face further pressure.
I guess we should see USDC continue to expand rapidly and approach the scale of USDT in the first half of next year.
The scale of stablecoins needs to reach 3 trillion, not relying on the small volume of the crypto world, but on institutions, payments, and cross-border transfers. Under the new dollar system, compliant stablecoins are essential.
Besides CRCL, there are compliant stablecoins like PYUSD, with PayPal's tens of millions of users, which is also compliant and has seen rapid growth in recent months. I once considered allocating some PayPal stock, but ultimately gave up; I don't like "not bad," I only want the best.
Stablecoins are a scalable, networked business model; the larger the volume, the more invincible it becomes, and the lower the marketing costs. An excellent business model.
Currently, under CIRCLE's U.S. Treasury debt reduction strategy, its position is somewhat like Lockheed Martin in the military industry, with all resources directed there.
- Quantitative analysis:
Currently valued at 16 billion, with a stablecoin scale of 78 billion, annual profits nearing 1 billion, which means a PE ratio of over 10 times, similar to the valuation of a second or third-tier junk bank.
Next year, it will be included in the Russell Index, instantly attracting 1 billion in buying.
- CRCL is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, not Nasdaq. This move is to position CRCL not as a tech stock but as a financial infrastructure of the new era.
Moreover, all of CRCL's allies are there; its allies BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are all present. Based on a market cap of around 20 billion and several consecutive profitable quarters, it is expected to be included in the S&P 500 by the end of next year, thus gaining nearly 10 billion in passive buying. Currently valued at 16 billion, a 100% inclusion in the S&P index means a 100% influx of over 10 billion in passive funds in the future.
- The IPO price is around 30, and it opened at 60, so 60 is the secondary bottom; it would be difficult to drop below that. At 30, it would be cheaper than a failing bank, but these two cannot be compared. If it drops to 30, I might liquidate my BTC to buy it all—if it drops to 30, I would buy the dip again, and then I would be out of money and go all in.
Risks:
Interest rate cuts and growth: if USDC's scale does not grow quickly enough while interest rates are cut aggressively, its market cap may feel the income reduction and plummet.
Competition from leaders, such as PYUSD. Although its current scale is negligible, it has been growing rapidly recently. Will users leverage the PayPal platform for explosive growth? Unknown.
If the president steps down, and the new one says no more, this is a joke, but I cannot predict any risks.
You can also buy directly on Binance; you need to be in the Binance wallet.
https://web3.binance.com/referral?ref=DY789
Visit this link, then search for CRCLON, and you’re good to go.
If you open it directly in the Binance app, you can also switch to the wallet. If the wallet hasn’t filled in the invitation code, enter the above code in the invite friends section to permanently save on the highest level of fees.
Note: When purchasing, make sure to look for the circle icon at the front; ON refers to ONDO issuance. I bought directly from the exchange and am not very familiar with buying on Binance; it should also have deeper liquidity after the U.S. stock market opens, so everyone should pay attention.
Looking back in ten years, perhaps this thing will be like Duan Yongping buying NetEase.
I missed Google at 160, and from then on, I knew to believe in myself, not in prices, not in the crowd—specifically, to believe in my research. The more research I have, the more position I take.
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