I originally wanted to wait for Trump to speak, but I couldn't hold on any longer. Today, the Iranian president published an article addressed to the American people, stating that Iran seeks peace and has almost never initiated war. The current situation is all forced upon them. Although it seems to be a lament, it actually feels more like a declaration of "better to die than to submit," which also implies that Trump believes the probability of a short-term ceasefire is low, unless there is a devastating strike.

Currently, some American politicians also believe that Trump wants to withdraw from combat by unilaterally declaring victory, but troop withdrawal may not mean the end of the war. Trump might think that after the withdrawal, the Straits of Hormuz will be clear, but based on Iran's current attitude, that doesn't seem easy. Moreover, the Red Sea is also under the influence of the Houthis.

At present, the market is still more influenced by information. The rise in US stocks and the fall in oil prices are not due to the end of the war, but rather a result of market expectations that it might end. If expectations change, the market is very likely to continue fluctuating, so it’s still better to be cautious during this period.

Looking back at the data for Bitcoin, a lot of on-chain data for $BTC was released today. Overall, the data indicates that Bitcoin holders are not in a state of panic, especially high-net-worth investors who mainly adopt a long-term holding strategy. The sentiment among overall investors remains quite stable, and the volatility is mainly caused by short-term investors.

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