Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜jk

Have we passed the most difficult moment? This is a question that Wall Street has been asking the crypto industry this week.

Since last week's low of $81,000, Bitcoin has recovered to above $91,000, with a weekly increase of over 12%, re-establishing itself at the $90,000 mark. Does this rebound signify that the market has bottomed out, or is it merely a technical rebound before a deeper adjustment? Has the cycle of significant Bitcoin corrections come to an end, or are we still facing a real bear market?

At this critical turning point, top institutions on Wall Street have shown a rare polarization in their judgments about Bitcoin's future direction.

Optimists: Institutionalization Changes the Game, Major Corrections Become History

JPMorgan: From Cyclical Theory to Macro Assets

JPMorgan's analysts expressed an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin's long-term prospects in a recent report. The analysts pointed out that cryptocurrency prices are now more influenced by macroeconomic trends rather than Bitcoin's predictable four-year halving cycle. JPMorgan strategists believe Bitcoin appears undervalued after clearing excessive leverage, seeing "significant upside potential" in the next 6-12 months. Specifically, JPMorgan predicts that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months, which represents nearly a doubling from the current price.

The report emphasized: "Cryptocurrency is transitioning from a venture capital-like ecosystem to a typical tradable macro asset class, supported by institutional liquidity rather than retail speculation."

Standard Chartered: $200,000 is Just the Starting Point

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, displayed a more aggressive optimistic attitude. Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 and could reach $500,000 by 2028. Kendrick stated that Bitcoin's decentralized ledger serves as a shield against the vulnerabilities of centralized financial systems; in a client report on October 2, Kendrick reiterated the year-end target of $200,000 and noted that a potential U.S. government shutdown could serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin's rise.

Standard Chartered believes that the continued inflow into Bitcoin ETFs and the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and "U.S. government risk" will benefit it as political deadlock deepens. The bank expects: "At least $20 billion more will flow in by the end of the year, making the year-end prediction of $200,000 possible."

Citibank: Three Scenarios, Base Case at $135,000

Citibank's analysis is more systematic, providing three possible scenarios. Citi predicts a base case for Bitcoin to reach $135,000 by 2025, with an optimistic scenario reaching $199,000.

The bank's analysts broke down the price drivers into several components. Citibank emphasized that ETF demand now accounts for over 40% of Bitcoin's price changes. According to its internal model, ETF demand currently explains more than 40% of Bitcoin's price fluctuations, and the bank expects an additional $15 billion in ETF inflows by 2025, which could add about $63,000 to Bitcoin's price.

In addition to institutional inflows, Citibank also assesses user growth as a structural factor, predicting a 20% global user growth that will support a base price level close to $75,000.

Bitwise: We Are Closer to the Bottom Than the Top

At a time when market panic peaked, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan offered a different perspective. Hougan stated that long-term buyers—such as Harvard endowment funds and Abu Dhabi funds—are already purchasing at current levels.

Hougan believes retail investors are in a state of "extreme despair," but this precisely indicates that a bottom may be near. In an interview with CNBC, he stated: "When I talk to institutional investors or financial advisors, they are still excited about allocating to this asset class, which continues to provide very strong returns over a one-year timeframe."

He explicitly stated: "I believe the four-year cycle has ended," and anticipates a 30%-50% correction may occur, but "I bet that a 70% drawdown is a thing of the past." This view is supported by data.

Hougan provided a specific prediction for Bitcoin's year-end price: "Bitcoin could easily set a new high by the end of the year, meaning breaking through around $125,000 to $130,000. Whether we can reach $150,000, we will see."

The Four-Year Cycle is Failing

Several analysts have suggested that the traditional four-year cycle may be failing, and there may no longer be a black swan event leading to a winter-level bear market.

Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol, stated: "As market maturity increases, long-term holders accumulate at historical highs, and volatility decreases, the traditional four-year rhythm is being replaced by more sensitive liquidity and macro-related behaviors."

An influential analyst on Chinese social media, Banmuxia, also provided a detailed technical analysis supporting a target price of $240,000. His logic is interesting: "Regarding Bitcoin, there is only one viewpoint, very simple and direct: it will gradually drop to $84,000, then experience several months of complex oscillation, and by the end of next year or early the following year, it will follow the U.S. stock market's bubble to surge to $240,000."

Changes in market structure also support this argument. The launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has altered market dynamics, and since its launch, the magnitude of corrections has significantly decreased, rarely exceeding 20%. This new layer of institutional participation has transformed Bitcoin into a more mature macro asset, making the typical explosive tops and deep bear markets of past cycles less likely to reoccur in the same manner.

Pessimists: The Bear Market Has Arrived, Cyclical Laws Cannot Be Violated

However, not all Wall Street giants are optimistic. In fact, some institutions have issued starkly opposing warnings.

Morgan Stanley: Autumn Has Arrived, Prepare for Winter

Morgan Stanley has issued the clearest warning signal. The bank's strategists warned that the market has entered "autumn," which is the harvest period in the four-year cycle, and it is time to take profits and prepare for a potential "crypto winter."

Investment strategist Denny Galindo stated in a podcast: "We are now in autumn. Autumn is the time for harvesting, so it is time to take profits. But the debate is how long this autumn will last and when the next winter will begin." He noted that historical patterns show that a significant correction typically occurs before "autumn," with past winter price declines reaching as high as 80%. Specifically, the 2017 bull market led to Bitcoin dropping from $19,000 to $3,200 in the 2018 winter, while the peak of $69,000 in 2021 saw a winter low of $16,000 in 2022.

JPMorgan: Yes, It's Me Again

JPMorgan has shown a very contradictory stance on this issue. While the bank publicly predicts a long-term price of up to $240,000, its latest structured products tell a completely different story.

The structured notes product launched by JPMorgan is entirely based on the four-year halving cycle, predicting that Bitcoin will enter a downtrend in 2026 and then rise again in 2028 (the next halving year).

The product mechanism is that if the preset price is reached by the end of 2026, JPMorgan will redeem the notes and pay a minimum return of 16%; but if it falls below that price, the notes will extend to 2028, and investors may receive 1.5 times the principal with no upper limit on returns.

However, the risks are equally significant: the product offers 30% downside protection, but if the ETF falls more than 30%, investors could lose over 40% or even all of their principal. JPMorgan warns in its risk disclosure: "The notes do not guarantee any principal return. If the notes are not redeemed early and the final value is below the barrier amount, you will lose 1% of your principal for every 1% that the final value is below the initial value."

This product design is essentially betting that Bitcoin will decline in 2026, which sharply contrasts with the bank's publicly bullish long-term outlook.

CryptoQuant: The Bear Market Has Already Begun

CryptoQuant's judgment is very straightforward: the bear market has already begun.

CryptoQuant's Bull Score index has dropped to an extremely bearish level of 20/100, while the BTC price is far below the 365-day moving average of $102,000. Analysts on the platform stated: "Both fundamental and technical indicators point in the same direction: we are in a bear market phase."

Regarding whether the cycle has ended, CryptoQuant provided a clear answer. According to the four-year cycle standard, including 2014-2017 and 2018-2021, the current cycle (2022-2025) is nearing its end. While there is a consensus that BTC may have one more rebound (possibly in 2026), technical and fundamental indicators suggest that the bear market may have already begun.

CryptoQuant also stated: "Strategy cannot support this market alone; treasury companies have effectively disappeared as a source of demand."

Will Traditional Declines Reoccur?

There is intense debate in the market about whether a 70-80% major correction will reoccur.

The bearish argument is that historically, Bitcoin has plummeted about 70-80% from its peak after halving, which is a significant feature of traditional cycles. Some analysts point out that past cycles have seen declines of over 70%—if history repeats itself, it would imply potential lows around $35,000-$40,000.

But optimists insist that times have changed. Hougan acknowledges that a 30-50% decline is possible, but emphasizes: "I bet that a 70% drawdown is a thing of the past." The reasoning is that long-term holders and stable institutional inflows are promoting greater downside absorption.

The Discrepancy Itself is a Signal

The significant divergence among top institutions on Wall Street is itself an important signal.

On one hand, it reflects that the Bitcoin market is at a critical turning point. Both fundamental and technical indicators point in the same direction: we are in a bear market phase, but long-term holders continue to accumulate, and institutions are not exiting the market but are in a rotation phase rather than divesting.

On the other hand, this divergence also reveals a deeper truth: Bitcoin is transitioning from a retail-dominated, sentiment-driven speculative asset to a complex macro asset shaped by diverse institutional participants. In this transformation process, the old rules may no longer apply, but the new paradigm has yet to be fully established.

Ironically, JPMorgan is simultaneously predicting in its research report that Bitcoin could reach $240,000 in the long term while launching a structured product betting on a decline in 2026. This contradiction may best illustrate the current market's complexity: even the most astute institutions on Wall Street are making multi-faceted bets across various time frames and scenarios. For investors, the only certainty is that in this institutional-level divergence, regardless of which side you stand on, you should be prepared to respond to the other scenario.

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