Current Two Main Expectations

Yesterday, I mentioned that there are two possible trend structures in the current market, and today I will elaborate further.

Expectation One: 5-wave decline ends → A 3-wave rebound follows (lower probability)

If we view the recent trend as a standard 5-wave decline, then there is a chance for a 3-wave rebound to occur next.

A 3-wave rebound generally consists of two segments:

First segment: Upward movement

Retracement

Second segment: Upward movement

Target range:

100,000 – 102,000
Where:

100,000 = Key low point ahead, multiple resistance from tops

102,000 = 50-week moving average (the dividing line for bullish and bearish at the weekly level, also an important resistance)

Therefore, if it is a 3-wave rebound, the upper limit of the rebound is likely to be in the 100,000 - 102,000 range.

However, I personally believe this possibility exists, but it is not the current main direction.

Expectation Two (more likely): Rebound ends → Continues to decline → Tests 80,000 again (higher probability)

The current upward movement is just a part of the bottoming structure.

After the rebound ends, a new decline will occur.

Decline target: Break below the previous low → Test the 80,000 round number.

Then attempt to build a bottom near 80,000, forming a wide oscillation range.

We will then see if a true reversal structure can emerge.

This structure, from a trend perspective, aligns more with the inertia logic of multiple levels.

Why do I lean towards this one?

Because this rebound has already moved about 13%-14%, which is significantly stronger than the previous two segments (8%, 12%).
But it is still not enough to directly reverse the trend.

Therefore, a pullback, breaking the previous low, testing 80,000, and then building a bottom would better match the current market rhythm.

From a structural perspective, what should we focus on regarding Bitcoin?

1-hour level: The upward channel structure is evident.

The current position of the rebound is a standard upward channel, similar to previous segments.

Key point:

If the lower edge of the channel is effectively broken,

And a confirmation signal appears again (similar to the previous double top → neckline break → retest confirmation),

Then it will be easy for a new decline to emerge, targeting:

Testing the previous low → Testing 80,000.

Only after breaking below will it enter a larger level of bottoming range.

This is also why I believe:

The current rebound resembles a part of the bottoming process, rather than a direct reversal to the upside.

Ethereum (ETH) structure is similarly aligned.

ETH is currently also in an upward channel structure.

Key point similar to BTC:

If the channel breaks downward,

And a confirmation signal appears,
It will easily lead to a retest of the previous low and enter the construction of the bottom range.

Follow me, join the community, and progress together. The article is published with a delay and is for reference only.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。