In the past few days, I have shared the book "Taking the Day as a Mirror" with everyone, mainly for two reasons:

First, it satisfies a topic I have been concerned about for a long time;

The second is that it triggered a belief I have always held: anticipate defeat before expecting victory—especially when I face ambiguous and foggy situations, I always tend to think of the worst-case scenario first, trying to find a baseline solution under extreme conditions.

What I dislike the most is self-deception, self-comfort, or even burying my head in the sand like an ostrich when faced with problems, pretending not to see them, especially when it concerns the future direction and development of life.

A reader mentioned:

"As an ordinary person, how can one safely get through this period?"

This is also one of the important questions I kept in mind while reading this book.

The book provides some answers to this question, which I shared in yesterday's article. In addition, I also tried to organize my thoughts and outline a more complete logic.

However, so far, I still feel that my thoughts are quite immature, so I can only share some partial and crude opinions.

I think the method for addressing this question still prefers to start with a review of history, so the following thoughts will first return to the past 30 years, combined with the development path our country has experienced.

For anyone entering society, there are only three ways to ultimately change their life circumstances:

• Entrepreneurship

• Working for others

• Investment

The uncertainty of "entrepreneurship" is too great, and the risks are extremely high. Generally speaking, it is difficult for ordinary people to choose this option. Even if ordinary people can change their circumstances through entrepreneurship, it is often a coincidence that happens under duress—where they themselves later cannot believe they succeeded.

Street-side eateries, family-run shops, etc., in my view, do not count as entrepreneurship; they are merely small businesses for making a living. In this era, it is basically impossible for individual operators to change their circumstances through this means.

So I will not discuss the option of "entrepreneurship" here.

"Working for others" is a way for two types of people to potentially change their circumstances.

One type is students who perform well academically.

By getting into prestigious universities like 985 or 211, they can graduate and enter good industries, ultimately becoming the backbone of various positions in companies, thus settling down in big cities and living relatively glamorous lives.

However, to achieve this, there is a very important condition: they must enter the fastest-growing and most trending industries in China over the past 30 years, such as real estate, finance, telecommunications, and the internet.

If they do not enter these industries but instead go into traditional sectors like steel or machinery, unless they achieve extremely high accomplishments, it is generally difficult for their compensation to compare with those in trending industries.

This type of student is a minority and not typical.

The second type is students who perform average academically.

This type of student constitutes the vast majority.

From my limited life experience, I see that the only way for this type of student to stand out and change their circumstances is through sales.

In the early years, working as a pharmaceutical representative, then as a real estate agent, and later in various e-commerce roles… they do not need strict diplomas; they just need to seize an opportunity to turn their lives around.

Without a diploma or background, how can they seize these opportunities?

It relies on social knowledge, attention to new things, and, more importantly, a spirit of continuous learning and unwavering belief.

This type of student actually has more exposure; since China joined the WTO, all industries that have integrated into the world and achieved qualitative leaps with the development of the national economy have provided these students with endless opportunities.

After discussing working for others, we finally come to "investment."

In my view, this path is the one that has truly allowed the broadest masses to achieve a turnaround and change their circumstances over the past 30 years.

If we consider the housing reform that began in China in the 1990s until before 2015, any ordinary person who bought a house for any purpose during those 20-plus years would generally have good returns.

Even in the current situation of plummeting housing prices, investors who bought houses in first-tier cities before 2015 can basically still break even.

For the vast majority of people who earn a living by working, if they did not buy a house during those 20 years, even if they earned a high salary, it is difficult to say they changed their life circumstances.

After reviewing history, looking to the future, we can compare one by one:

I still do not discuss "entrepreneurship," as it is not a path accessible to most people.

Regarding "working for others," the original first type of people has a basic condition of attending a good university.

On this point, I now have doubts: Japan's experience has already made clear the trend of degree devaluation, and this trend is likely to occur in our country's future.

I believe everyone has seen the recent number of doctoral admissions at Fudan University. This is replicating Japan's past expansion of master's and doctoral programs. If this trend continues, even graduates from prestigious universities will see their degrees significantly discounted, and I am not optimistic about the future advantages of degrees.

Of course, I do not deny all students who graduate from prestigious schools; I am referring to the fact that for the majority of future graduates from prestigious schools, the possibility of changing their circumstances based on their diplomas will greatly decrease.

Since degrees are devaluing, where will the opportunities for most workers in the future lie?

Still, as in the past 30 years: choose the right trending industries.

The trending industries of the past 30 years were real estate, finance, telecommunications, and the internet; the trending industries of the next 30 years will be overseas industries, artificial intelligence, and all sectors experiencing new technological revolutions.

In these industries, those with technical skills can work in technology, those without can work in sales, and even those who are not skilled should be able to find opportunities by starting with basic tasks.

In addition, in the future, becoming a global citizen on the internet, regardless of where one is physically located, will likely be a skill that everyone must cultivate throughout their lives.

What I am most concerned about is "investment."

I believe the opportunities contained within this path are greater and more extensive than in the past, as we are about to face breakthroughs and disruptions in multiple technological fields, so I will focus more of my energy on this route.

I divide this path into two segments:

One is global assets, focusing on crypto assets and stocks/indexes of genuine high-tech companies and their related industries.

The other is domestic assets. Real estate is definitely not an option; the only remaining choice, in my opinion, is stocks. However, stock selection must be approached with caution. Based on Japan's experience, one can choose overseas companies and genuine tech companies. However, I currently have no experience in selecting individual stocks in the A-share market.

Here, I have a concern:

For domestic investment, with the collapse of the real estate asset reservoir for residents and strict controls on capital outflow, if the domestic stock market also struggles to grow in the future, where will ordinary residents find pathways for wealth growth?

If ordinary residents lack pathways for wealth growth, it will inevitably lead to a lack of life security. What situation will we encounter then?

Japan was already a developed country at that time; on one hand, it had a relatively complete social security and healthcare system; on the other hand, Japan relied on the free flow of capital and large-scale overseas investments to recreate a second Japan. With that relatively complete social security and healthcare system, along with overseas investments feeding back into the domestic economy, Japan managed to sustain itself for 30 years, barely stabilizing the life security of the entire society and its residents, maintaining the bottom line for the entire country.

However, how many countries in the world have such conditions to support the entire society?

This is perhaps the most difficult issue for ordinary people to face, and it is also the question I find most perplexing.

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