According to Travis McGhee, Global Head of Predictions at Crypto.com, prediction markets are generally more accurate than traditional polling when predicting future outcomes of events. McGhee cites the 2024 U.S. presidential election as the “highest profile example” where prediction markets proved their superiority over conventional polling methods.

One of the reasons prediction markets appear to have the edge over traditional polling is the built‑in incentivization of participation—traders have real money at stake, which motivates them to seek out accurate information rather than simply offering an opinion. Unlike polls that rely on limited samples, prediction markets draw from a far more diverse set of inputs, aggregating signals from retail traders, institutional players, and even global news cycles. By combining financial incentives with broad participation, prediction markets can synthesize collective intelligence and deliver sharper, more reliable forecasts than traditional polling methods.

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Yet, despite this, prediction markets continued to be mired in legal disputes with state gaming commissions, even though they were registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). For example, in KalshiEX LLC v. CFTC, a federal court ruled that election prediction contracts did not fall within the definition of “gaming” under the Commodity Exchange Act, opening the door to broader market participation.

However, by Nov. 25, 2025, a Nevada federal judge overturned Kalshi’s earlier win, siding with state regulators who argued its sports event contracts amounted to unlicensed gambling. These conflicting rulings highlight the ongoing tension between federal oversight and state gaming authorities, underscoring how prediction markets remain caught between financial innovation and gambling regulation.

McGhee, meanwhile, acknowledged that while the legal uncertainty does impact Crypto.com’s prediction markets platform, he remains confident courts will eventually rule in favor of players in this industry.

“We firmly believe that the swaps, event contracts, and other derivatives we offer in the U.S. through our CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse, are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC, are fully compliant, and licensed pursuant to all applicable law. We believe that courts will ultimately rule in our favor. We are bullish on our growth plans for our prediction markets offering,” McGhee told Bitcoin.com News in written responses.

To demonstrate this bullishness, the platform continues to offer services to users in the U.S. within the confines of the existing regulatory framework. Additionally, Crypto.com has teamed up with Hollywood.com to launch an entertainment-focused prediction market, giving fans a legal, federally compliant way to trade on outcomes tied to movies, music, and awards. The ultimate goal is to provide customers with a one-app experience, enabling them to educate themselves on products that have proper disclosures on potential profits and losses and to act on any opportunity.

Concerning prediction markets’ perceived risks to the integrity of public discourse or political processes, McGhee insisted these platforms pose the “same risks that any CFTC-regulated derivative possesses.” Furthermore, companies like Crypto.com use the CFTC-granted self-regulating mandate to “weed out” elements attempting to subvert the platform.

“We conduct market surveillance in real-time and are able to investigate inappropriate behavior and even fine or expel customers who violate our rules,” McGhee explained.

Looking ahead, McGhee said his organization sees significant opportunity for the growth of prediction markets and event contracts in the U.S. and beyond. As prediction markets continue to gain a foothold in mainstream digital engagement, McGhee said Crypto.com expects “to see these engagements create greater connection to even more real-world events and experiences through a trillion-dollar industry.”

• Why are prediction markets seen as more accurate? They incentivize traders with real money, driving more informed participation than polls.
• What legal challenges exist in the U.S.? Conflicting rulings between federal courts and state gaming regulators keep the industry in limbo.
• How is Crypto.com expanding its platform? It partnered with Hollywood.com to launch entertainment‑focused, CFTC‑compliant prediction markets.
• What’s the growth outlook globally? Crypto.com expects prediction markets to evolve into a trillion‑dollar industry connecting real‑world events.

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