Written by: Wenser (@wenser 2010), Planet Daily
Polymarket's prediction games have always been a feast for the few and a gamble for the many. Similar to contract markets, it is filled with "black swan reversals," especially in sports upsets.
Today, we will discuss the fall of a trader once hailed as the "God of Sports Prediction"—Mayuravarma. This trader, with an ID reflecting the Indian caste style of "prediction veteran," managed to violently increase a principal of $5,000 to $3.8 million in just one month, achieving a profit of 760 times, and at one point ranked sixth on the sports profit leaderboard. However, as is often the case, what rises must fall; within just a week, his assets were nearly wiped out.
Mayuravarma's experience once again confirms that the so-called "tail-end strategy" on Polymarket is unreliable. Betting events like sports matches often have dramatic reversals at the last moment—you are not just betting on that "certain profit," but on your entire principal.
Next, let us review the collapse of this prediction myth.
Rebirth as an Indian Noble: The Journey to Becoming the "God of Sports Prediction" Starting from LOL Matches
Mayuravarma began his prediction market journey with the LOL World Championship. According to his profile information, he placed bets 9 times during the LOL S15 World Championship, with a final record of 6 wins and 3 losses, achieving a win rate of about 67%. Ultimately, his total losses from LOL betting amounted to about $20,000, while his profits reached approximately $790,000, including:
- A bet of $150,000 on the AL vs. T1 match, winning $162,500;
- A bet of $1.1 million on the KT vs. T1 finals, ultimately winning nearly $600,000.
From E-sports to American Professional Sports Leagues: Mayuravarma's Path to Divinity
With the annual world-class e-sports events, Mayuravarma successfully earned about $770,000 in net profit. After briefly betting on 3 LOL matches, he began his "path to becoming a god of sports event prediction," expanding his betting field from LOL e-sports to famous American professional leagues and various sports events—CFB (College Football), NHL (National Hockey League), NBA (National Basketball Association), and NFL (National Football League), among others.
Initially, Mayuravarma's betting could be described as "winning every bet": in 5 CFB events and 2 NHL matches, he achieved a return rate of about 30% to 82% through multiple bets, with one instance yielding a profit of as much as $360,000.
Here, we can also see Mayuravarma's betting style: he tends to place pre-match bets, with amounts ranging from thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars, and rarely sells during the match. This not only allowed him to gradually roll over small funds into large results in the early stages but also set the stage for his later ALL IN attempt to turn the tide in an NHL match, which ultimately backfired.
After starting to bet on NFL matches, his win rate suddenly dropped: in 5 NFL matches, his win rate fell from the previous 100% in CFB betting to about 40%.
There are also two dramatic details worth elaborating on:
First, in an early NHL match between the Wild and Rangers, Mayuravarma bet on the Rangers to win at odds of 57:43, ultimately losing $275,000 in betting funds; in a subsequent NHL match, he again bet on the Devils, who had a higher win rate against the Wild, profiting $86,000 from a bet of less than $120,000, illustrating the randomness of the prediction market.
Second, in the NHL match on November 22 between the Wild and Penguins, he invested $1 million betting on the Penguins to win, only for the Wild to unexpectedly defeat the Penguins 5-0, resulting in a loss of his $1 million betting funds.
Subsequently, Mayuravarma began betting on NBA events, successfully predicting the Warriors to defeat the Lakers in 2 matches, with a single match profit of nearly $100,000, maintaining a win rate of 50%.
The results of subsequent betting events seemed somewhat mundane, but the process was smooth for Mayuravarma. He maintained a high win rate across LOL, NHL, and NBA matches, and from these betting interfaces, we can also see another aspect of his betting style: he prefers to bet on teams with higher pre-match winning chances and stronger capabilities, rather than hoping for upsets. This reflects Mayuravarma's deep attention and understanding of various sports events, providing a certain guarantee for his continued profitability, but it also left some room for unexpected outcomes.
After all, as the saying goes in football and various sports events: "Football is round; anything can happen." It could be an own goal, a heroic solo effort, or even an unintentional mistake by the referee. In summary, sports events contain infinite possibilities, and every unexpected result is a gamble where the bettor stakes their real money.
The Potential Impact of the Prediction Market: When Money Becomes a Paper Number
With each betting event, Mayuravarma's betting amounts continued to increase, starting from $2,000, gradually rising to $30,000 to $50,000, and later, he would casually place bets of $100,000. In less than a month, he transformed from a "newbie in the prediction market" to a "betting whale" in the eyes of Polymarket players.
From the following settlement records, it can be seen that during this phase, Mayuravarma was in the "normal distribution range":
- In 24 events, he maintained a win rate of 50%, successfully betting on 12 matches, while failing in the remaining events;
- In the 12 failed betting matches, he accumulated a total investment of about $840,000, losing it all;
- In the 12 winning betting matches, he accumulated profits of about $1.64 million, with a profit-loss ratio close to 2, meaning his profit was about 1.95 times his losses;
- The two largest losses came from NBA matches, with one loss of $102,600 and another loss of $102,000;
- The largest profit came from an NHL match between the Bruins and Senators, with an investment of $992,000, yielding over $607,000 in profit.
Overall, during this phase, Mayuravarma's betting results were characterized by "losing less and winning more." Notably, in the NBA match between the Jazz and Trail Blazers, he finally learned to cut losses in time, investing $20,000 and ultimately losing less than $300 before exiting, avoiding a total wipeout.
Mayuravarma's Betting Event Result Records (from bottom to top, time from early to late)
In subsequent bets, Mayuravarma seemed to have found the trick to the prediction market again, returning to a "winning general" state: in 12 matches, he only failed in 3, winning the rest. It was during this phase that he experienced his highlight moment:
In the CFB match between Houston and UCF, with a betting amount of $745,000, he ultimately achieved a profit of $687,200, with a profit rate of 92.25%, marking the largest profit in his account to date, ranking first among 108 betting actions.
However, perhaps like the "correction after a new high" in the crypto market, after experiencing personal glory, Mayuravarma faced his darkest moment: in the next 10 matches (including the previous one, totaling 11 matches), it was as if his luck had run out, leading to a painful "10 consecutive losses," with accumulated losses reaching $2.05 million.
During this phase, most of Mayuravarma's unfortunate losses (8 out of 11) were in NHL hockey events, which have an upset rate of about 30%, the highest among the four major professional leagues in the U.S., far exceeding that of NBA, MLB, and NFL events. This perhaps laid the groundwork for his ultimate downfall, where a single misstep led to total defeat.
“The Consequence of 11 Consecutive Losses”
How a Gambler is Made: When Bettors are No Longer Satisfied with Small Stakes
Just as fengdubiying made millions by betting solely on LOL e-sports events through skill and luck, after experiencing painful consecutive losses, LOL e-sports events became Mayuravarma's "turning point."
After betting on "T1 to win the LOL S15 World Championship" and raking in a profit of $600,000, Mayuravarma found his "lucky streak" again, and his overall performance finally broke free from the downturn, beginning to see both wins and losses.
However, by this time, he had likely become accustomed to treating "money as mere numbers," and his betting amounts were no longer limited to the previous $100,000 range but instead increased to hundreds of thousands, even daring to bet $1 million with a profit rate of around 30%.
When a trader known for a "steady and conservative, only betting on strong teams" style changes his previously cautious trading attitude, it is undeniable that he has been influenced, to some extent, by the complex market environment and the obsession with "just wanting to win," and the outcome, of course, is evident.
Trading Records (from bottom to top, in chronological order)
A Month of Ascendancy, a Week of Downfall: Mayuravarma's "Dynasty Road" Comes to an End
On November 14, through about a month of rapid maneuvering, Mayuravarma's personal profit surged from an initial $7,000 to nearly $3.9 million.
Mayuravarma's Account Peak Profit Data
However, just a week later, Mayuravarma faced consecutive heavy losses in NHL and CFB matches, bringing his profits close to zero:
- In the CFB match between Texas State and Southern Miss, he bet $1.2 million on Southern Miss to win, ultimately losing all his principal;
- In the NHL match between the Capitals and Canadiens, he went ALL IN again, investing $1.2 million on the Canadiens, who had a higher pre-match win rate, but failed to cut losses in time, losing nearly $1.2 million, resulting in his personal profit-loss data shifting from profit to a loss of -$3.8 million within a week.
It was also on Saturday, November 22, after experiencing the rollercoaster of "making over $3.8 million only to give it back," that Mayuravarma deleted his account on the X platform in frustration.
Subsequently, perhaps unwilling to become a laughingstock on Polymarket, Mayuravarma transferred another $1 million into his personal account and bet on various sports events again, but the final result was still more losses than wins.
As of the time of writing (November 26), Mayuravarma's personal account on Polymarket showed a cumulative loss of $885,000, with current holdings of about $278,500. This means he not only gave back all his previous betting profits but also lost hundreds of thousands of his principal.
In a certain sense, in sports events where the outcome of team victories and defeats is predicted, the prediction market of "one side wins, the other loses" is not much different from the contract market of "either up or down": in limited choices, the seemingly fewer options in the prediction market can be more brutal than the leveraged contract market. Many people find it difficult to cut losses in time when opening contracts, instead choosing to wait for the results to settle or hoping for an unexpected upset as the event nears its end. At that point, players lose not only their high hopes but also their hard-earned precious principal.
Under the automatic settlement mechanism at the end of events, the "winner takes all" nature of the prediction market appears even more ruthless.
Does ID Determine Fate? From fengdubiying to "The Creator of the Peacock Dynasty"
Perhaps the prediction market always carries a mystical quality—just like a trader's ID can subtly influence their profit and loss trajectory. Just as we previously interviewed fengdubiying, the ID Mayuravarma itself tells a story. (Recommended reading: “Odaily Interview with ‘The First Person in the Chinese Region of Polymarket’: A 225-Fold Profit Journey in 25 Days”)
In Sanskrit, the prototype of Mayura is "मयूर" (Mayūra), meaning "peacock," which symbolizes divinity and beauty in Indian culture; Varma is a common surname in South Asia, derived from the Sanskrit "वर्मन्" (Varman), meaning "protector" or "armor," often associated with the noble or warrior class; additionally, the Varma suffix is commonly found in noble surnames in Kerala, India, suggesting a protective role within the caste system.
Moreover, as mentioned in the personal profile of Mayuravarma on Polymarket, this ID has a certain connection to Mayurasharma, the founder of the Kadamba dynasty, which used the peacock as its symbol and ruled over what is now Karnataka, India. The latter's name signifies "the protection of the peacock." Inscriptions from South India record that his name reflects a combination of Kshatriya (warrior class) and nature worship.
And just like the "Peacock Dynasty," which has vanished into the annals of history, Mayuravarma is merely a fleeting "trading footnote" in the thriving development of the prediction market.
It is foreseeable that legendary stars who suddenly become wealthy like him are still gearing up in the betting market of Polymarket, while there are also many traders who, like him, have fallen from grace and lost all their assets. Like the "Brother Ma Ji" Huang Licheng, who repeatedly battles in the contract market, Mayuravarma is neither the first nor the last.
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