Author: Blockchain Knight
On November 24, Grayscale's Dogecoin ETF (GDOG) was listed on the New York Stock Exchange Arca, but it faced a "cold opening."
On its first day, the secondary market trading volume was only $1.41 million, far below Bloomberg analysts' forecast of $12 million, and the net inflow of funds was $0, indicating no new capital was injected into the ecosystem. This performance starkly reveals that the market's demand for regulated products has been severely overestimated.
The cold reception of GDOG stands in sharp contrast to successful cases during the same period. The Solana ETF (BSOL), launched in late October, attracted $200 million in inflows in its first week, primarily due to its practical attributes of staking rewards, providing traditional investors with an investment mechanism that is difficult to participate in directly.
In contrast, GDOG only offers exposure to social sentiment. As a regular spot product, its underlying asset is already widespread on retail platforms like Robinhood, lacking "entry premiums" and yield support, which limits its appeal to institutions.
Additionally, the characteristics of MEME assets bring extra risks. Although Dogecoin has a daily trading volume of $1.5 billion, it is prone to significant volatility driven by events.
Moreover, creating large positions requires purchasing massive amounts of DOGE, which could drive up spot prices; if the crypto market crashes during the ETF's trading halt, the price may significantly deviate from the net asset value upon resumption. These risks lead traders to view GDOG as a short-term trading tool rather than a long-term allocation asset.
The cold reception of GDOG is not an isolated incident but a warning of industry oversupply. In the next six days, five spot crypto ETFs will be launched (including Chainlink and XRP-related products), and over the next six months, more than 100 single-token ETFs are expected to be introduced.
However, the current market environment is extremely adverse; as of the week of November 24, digital asset investment products saw a net outflow of $1.94 billion.
This mismatch in supply and demand conceals structural risks. If even high-profile MEME assets like Dogecoin cannot attract subscriptions, the prospects for low-liquidity "long-tail ETFs" appear even bleaker.
A large number of low-scale "zombie ETFs" will dilute market liquidity, increase the difficulty of inventory management for market makers, and may lead to wider spreads and increased tracking errors during volatile periods.
GDOG's performance over the next two weeks will serve as a litmus test for the industry. If "zero new inflows" continues, it indicates that the product is merely cannibalizing existing demand rather than creating new inflows, which may force issuers to slow down the rollout of the 100 ETFs and even trigger channel consolidation.
Although the infrastructure and regulatory approvals for crypto ETFs are in place, investors are choosing to exit in the current sluggish environment, and the previously fervent issuance boom urgently needs to return to rationality.
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