01｜The Rebound Does Not Change the Trend

It was already made quite clear yesterday:
This kind of V-shaped micro-rebound at the bottom generally does not have the ability to directly reverse the trend.

Why?

Because currently, from the weekly, daily, 4-hour, and hourly perspectives,
all timeframes are in a bearish structure.

Many people now feel that this position should rebound, but even if it goes up further, it is only a rebound at the hourly level and cannot change the overall bearish trend.

So it is important to clarify one point here:
All timeframes are bearish; the hourly is just in a short-term rebound phase.
And this kind of micro-rebound at the bottom lacks structural support; it will not lead to a trend reversal and can only be seen as a short-term pullback.

02｜Three Expected Paths for Bitcoin

Currently, there are mainly three expectations, and the logic is very clear:

Expectation One: Complete "Double Bottom" and form an hourly reversal structure

The price first experiences a pullback

The previous low is not broken

Then it breaks the current high

Forms a bullish structure at the hourly level

Creates a clear reversal

This belongs to a small cycle reversal, which can push the price further up, but it is still only an hourly increase and cannot directly reverse the daily trend.

Expectation Two: V-reversal ends → Directly pull back

The current rebound ends

After reaching a high, it pulls back

Breaks the low

The bearish trend continues

This is a relatively common type of movement.

Expectation Three: Hourly reversal is established, but cannot push to a daily reversal

Even if a reversal structure is formed at the hourly level, to push for a daily reversal, it must again show:

Uptrend → Pullback → Continue to rise
Overall forming a complete bullish structure
Currently, such conditions are not met at all.

So the overall direction remains primarily bearish, and rebounds are all short-term pullbacks.

03｜Ethereum: Structure Similar to BTC

From the 4-hour structure perspective:

Above is a multiple top

It is a wide fluctuation range

The structure is similar to Bitcoin, also showing a diffusive external range

After the lower point breaks, this top reversal structure is basically established.

The subsequent adjustment formed a wide fluctuation, and after the low point breaks again, the continuation structure is established, extending the bearish trend.
The subsequent rebound amplitude is about nearly 400 points, which essentially still belongs to a micro-rebound at the bottom.

The logic is consistent with Bitcoin:

Do not look for a direct reversal

Do not predict the rebound high point

After the rebound ends and peaks, continue to look for short opportunities, targeting near the previous low

The three expectations for Ethereum are also consistent with Bitcoin, just with slightly different rhythms.

04｜Why Micro-Rebounds Usually Do Not Directly Reverse?

The logic is simple; a real reversal must meet:

Multiple bottoms

Double bottom

Neckline break

Structure of uptrend - pullback - continue to rise

Forming a clear bullish arrangement

However, most V-reversals:

Are merely emotional repairs

Lack structure

Do not have a bullish arrangement

Easily revisit previous lows

So it usually leads to:
A double bottom revisit

Only then is it possible to form a structure and truly reverse.

And right now, whether it is BTC or ETH, it has not yet reached such conditions.

05｜Short-Term Risk Points to Note

Although it cannot be determined that it will definitely break the previous low in the short term, there is one risk point that must be noted:

Beware of pullback risks.
The current rebound lacks structural support and is a weak V-reversal.

Therefore, the operation should still focus on a bearish mindset in line with the trend, looking for short points after the rebound ends for more stability.

Follow me, join the community, and let's progress together. The article is published with a delay and is for reference only.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。