As the global economy once again focuses on the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market sentiment swings between tension and anticipation. Recently, the "dovish" signals from within the Federal Reserve have acted like a ray of warm sunshine in winter, quickly igniting investors' hopes for future liquidity easing. Against this backdrop of a dramatic macro narrative shift, the cryptocurrency market's barometer—Bitcoin—has shown signs of stabilization. Is it signaling the imminent end of an era dominated by "painful trading" and heralding a return of broader market confidence? This article will delve into the deeper implications of the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the unique role Bitcoin plays at this critical moment.
- The Federal Reserve's "Dovish" Signals: December Rate Cut Expectations Ignite the Market
The direction of U.S. monetary policy is undergoing a remarkable transformation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly have recently voiced their support for implementing a rate cut at the upcoming December meeting. Waller, while mentioning that inflation has risen, still predicts it will enter a downward trajectory and hinted that further adjustments to interest rates may occur in January based on more data. Daly emphasized that the risk of a sudden deterioration in the job market far outweighs the risk of soaring inflation, thus supporting preemptive action.
The statements from these key decision-makers have rapidly increased market expectations for a rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has soared to an astonishing 82.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has dropped to 17.3%. The release of favorable macro signals has directly stimulated positive performance in risk assets, with U.S. stocks closing higher across the board on Monday. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq recorded increases of 0.44%, 1.5%, and 2.69%, respectively, injecting optimism into global markets.
- Bitcoin and Wall Street's "Iron Chain": Stabilization as a Macro Risk Barometer
In an increasingly complex financial system, cryptocurrencies are no longer isolated entities. Academy Securities' renowned strategist Peter Tchir warns that a highly correlated "iron chain" effect has formed between crypto assets, AI infrastructure development, and passive investment funds in U.S. stocks. As the scale of passive investment surpasses that of active investment, billions in retirement and hedge funds are deeply tied to the capital expenditure cycles of crypto companies and AI giants through ETF tools like QQQ.
This deep interconnection has led to significant transmission effects. Previously, Bitcoin experienced a sharp sell-off from $122,000 to $105,000 during U.S. stock market closing hours. This turbulence not only impacted the crypto market but also exerted direct liquidity pressure on a broad range of stock portfolios through the transmission chain of ETFs and related listed companies. Peter Tchir points out that the current economic risks are unprecedented; if cryptocurrencies cannot stabilize, the resulting liquidity tightening and wealth shrinkage will not only end the tech stock frenzy but could also drag down the growth pace of the entire macro economy. Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett also stated that many clients view Bitcoin's performance as a key barometer for future risk appetite. This means that Bitcoin's stability is seen as the first signal for the market to confirm the end of "painful trading."
- Derivative Signals and Technical Game: Rebound Opportunities Amid Long and Short Stalemates
Despite the positive macro sentiment, Bitcoin's market structure remains in a fierce battle between long and short forces. QCP's latest analysis indicates that after experiencing a roughly 30% pullback, Bitcoin has shown initial signs of rebound, which is related to the Federal Reserve's dovish comments boosting December rate cut expectations, suggesting that market liquidity may be shifting.
From the perspective of derivative data, investors have not completely abandoned upward bets. The open interest for year-end call options remains higher than that for put options, concentrated in the critical range of $85,000 to $200,000, indicating confidence in long-term gains. At the same time, the emergence of negative funding rates suggests that previous long leverage has been cleared, reducing short-term downside risks. However, the market is not without concerns. Crypto analyst @ali_charts has detected five strong sell signals for Bitcoin recently, including a bearish monthly MACD, a daily "death cross," a break below the 50-week moving average support, and sell signals from the SuperTrend and TD Sequential indicators. Historically, these signals have indicated significant adjustments, suggesting that if further pullbacks occur, key support levels may be at $75,740, $56,160, and $52,820. This means that despite the rebound opportunities, the market still needs to be wary of potential technical downside risks.
- Perspectives from Senior Analysts: Long-term Layout Considerations in a Complex Market
Faced with a complex situation where macro positives coexist with technical warnings, senior market analysts also provide a cautious perspective. Renowned Chinese crypto analyst Banmuxia recently posted on social media that Bitcoin's rebound appears relatively weak, which may increase the likelihood of further new lows. However, he also emphasized that $85,000 remains a very good long-term entry point.
Banmuxia advises investors that the market conditions over the next three to four months will be exceptionally complex, with volatility likely to increase. In such a high-uncertainty environment, he strongly recommends that investors focus on holding spot assets to avoid unnecessary trading losses and missed opportunities due to emotional fluctuations. He believes that only when the current bear market is completely over will be the true trading opportunity for bulls to fully unleash their potential. This provides valuable reference for investors seeking long-term value amid market volatility.
Conclusion
The surge in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut undoubtedly injects a strong dose of confidence into the market, and its ripple effects are gradually spreading to crypto assets. Bitcoin's stabilization, in the eyes of strategists like Peter Tchir, not only reflects its own market confidence but also serves as a key litmus test for whether macroeconomic risk appetite can be reignited. Despite the technical challenges that remain and the potential for complex battles in the short term, the resilience of the derivatives market and insights from long-term analysts together paint a future landscape filled with expectations but also requiring cautious navigation. Whether Bitcoin can ride the dovish wave to truly bid farewell to "painful trading" and usher in a new cycle driven by healthier liquidity may soon be revealed.
Related Reading: The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has listed AmazingTech on its warning list, urging caution against gold tokens GPT and GR.
Original Article: “Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Rebound! Bitcoin (BTC) Stages a Comeback: Is the Market Saying Goodbye to the Dawn of 'Painful Trading'?”
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