Bitcoin maintained above $86,000 on Monday, following a steady recovery over the weekend after dropping to $80,600 on Friday—its lowest price since April. The rebound occurred as traditional markets opened a new week with a cautious tone, with the Dollar Index (DXY) firmly above 100, hovering near a six-month high.
Key Points:
The Dollar Index held above 100 after strong non-farm payroll (NFP) data of 119,000 compared to an expectation of 53,000.
Bitcoin rebounded from $80,600 to above $86,000, but some analysts believe this may be a deceptive strength.
Despite the rebound in Bitcoin/USD for 2025, the Bitcoin/gold ratio suggests structural underperformance.
Bitcoin's movement comes as global markets digest new macroeconomic surprises, starting with a strong U.S. non-farm payroll report on November 20, which showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, while only 53,000 were expected.
The better-than-expected non-farm payroll data injected new tension into market outlooks. Typically, strong employment data suppresses rate cut expectations by demonstrating economic resilience, but this time the impact was mixed: the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained strong above 100, reaching its highest level in six months, while traders recalibrated the Fed's next steps.
On Friday, New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams stated that rate cuts remain possible in the short term, believing that a weak labor market, rather than inflation, poses a greater risk in the future.
The market appeared optimistic on Monday, with CME Group data currently predicting a 78.9% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in December, significantly higher than the 44% a week ago. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated she has not yet made a decision, highlighting the deepening divergence in Fed policy.
As fiscal pressures in Europe intensified, the dollar rose slightly against the euro and the pound, while the yen relinquished some of its gains from Friday despite new verbal interventions from Tokyo.
Although Bitcoin's steady rise over the weekend improved short-term sentiment, some analysts cautioned against misreading this rebound. Market technical analyst Tony Severino pointed out that Bitcoin's higher highs against the dollar in October may belong to a "B wave" rebound, suggesting that this movement is more likely an amplification effect of a weakening dollar rather than a true strength of crypto assets.
Severino's BTC/gold ratio chart shows that the cycle peak in March 2025 is close to 46, followed by a correction phase in December 2025 and January 2026, aligning with Bitcoin's halving cycle. Severino noted that the declining ratio indicates Bitcoin is underperforming compared to gold, suggesting that the rise in BTC/USD may mask structural weaknesses.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin's ability to regain the mid-$80,000 range amid a strengthening dollar provides traders with a technical window until volatility and Fed uncertainty subside, paving the way for the next major move.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Sharpe Ratio Nears Zero, a Rare Risk-Return Signal
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) Rallies as DXY Strengthens: Is it a Trap for Bulls?”
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