According to macroeconomist Lyn Alden, it is unlikely that Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will experience a significant crash at this stage.
"We have not yet reached a euphoric level in this cycle; therefore, there is not much reason to expect some major capitulation," Alden said in a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast.
"This cycle may last longer than people expect because it is driven not by halving but by broader macro factors and interest in the asset itself," Alden stated, dismissing the notion that the four-year cycle remains intact.
This view echoes comments from other crypto industry executives, such as Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who recently refuted the four-year cycle theory and suggested that the market could "see some good years ahead."
However, not everyone agrees with Alden's view that a major capitulation will not occur. Vineet Budki, CEO of venture capital firm Sigma Capital, recently told Cointelegraph that he expects Bitcoin to pull back 65% to 70% over the next two years.
Alden noted that market outcomes rarely align with the extreme scenarios investors imagine. "It usually doesn't turn out as well as people expect, nor as badly as people expect; things tend to develop that way," she said.
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin has been on a downward trend since reaching an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, dipping to a low of $80,700 on Thursday, and slightly recovering to $85,710 at the time of writing.
Market sentiment has also declined, as many traders originally expected a strong finish to the year or even new highs, with some, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predicting prices would approach $250,000.
The recent price drop of Bitcoin has traders obsessed with when the next upward trend will begin, but Alden stated that investors need to stop taking bull market cycles for granted.
"People have kind of fallen into a mindset that they are entitled to a bull market," Alden said. "No one is entitled to a bull market," she added.
Alden expects Bitcoin to regain the $100,000 level in 2026 and set a new all-time high that year, if not in 2026, then in 2027.
Related: Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) selling pressure eases, potential for continued recovery
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