Recently, Federal Reserve officials have been making consecutive statements, and there is a clear internal conflict between hawks and doves regarding the core issue of interest rate cuts. This indicates a significant divergence in the Fed's path towards rate cuts! Due to the lack of unified opinions, the uncertainty surrounding a potential rate cut in December continues to cast a shadow over the outlook for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Institutional capital continues to withdraw from risk assets, and ETFs are experiencing net redemptions, creating an overall environment unfavorable for bulls. Panic sentiment is intensifying, and global markets are facing severe setbacks.

After Bitcoin fell below the $90,000 mark yesterday, there was almost no significant rebound during the day. It continued to fluctuate downward and expanded its losses during the European session, even dropping to around $80,600 in the evening. Various selling pressures are accumulating, and Bitcoin's price has retraced nearly 35% from its historical high of $126,000 in October, while Ethereum has also retraced nearly 46%.

From a technical perspective, BTC has consecutively broken through recent key support zones, with short-term moving averages showing a bearish arrangement. The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a typical death cross; during the decline, trading volume has significantly increased, indicating concentrated and active selling pressure. The RSI has entered the oversold zone, but there has not yet been a bottom divergence, and the MACD is also expanding below the zero line, with the trend remaining bearish. In the short term, it may experience low-level fluctuations and consolidation, with limited rebound strength. Unless there is a clear increase in volume stabilization and enhanced on-chain buying, along with the recovery of key support, it is not suitable to easily adopt a bullish outlook.

On a larger cycle level, visible support is around $78,000–$76,000. If it continues to break down, it may test around $70,000, with resistance above at approximately $90,000–$95,000. As for the potential rebound after the weekend's overselling, first focus on the rebound correction situation. In the short cycle, the short-term support is in the $82,000 and $80,000 areas, while the short-term resistance above is around $88,000 and $90,000.

Short-term trading suggestions for Bitcoin:

1. Buy near the $82,000–$82,500 area, target $83,500–$84,500

2. Sell near the $88,000–$89,000 area, target $87,000–$86,500

Ethereum is also facing increased selling pressure as institutions reduce their positions amid heightened panic sentiment. Following Bitcoin's significant drop yesterday, it fell below $2,800 during the day and briefly dipped to around $2,630 in the evening. From a technical perspective, Ethereum has broken below the main daily moving averages, with the 50-day and 100-day moving averages showing a bearish arrangement, forming a downward trend. The MACD is expanding below the zero line, and although the RSI is close to oversold, there has not yet been a bottom divergence, indicating limited short-term rebound momentum.

The visible larger area of support is between $2,600 and $2,300. If it breaks below, it may test $2,000 or even lower; there is a demand for short-term recovery, and the weekend will be watched for rebound correction. The resistance above is at the $3,000 mark and $3,150, and only a breakthrough could lead to further increases.

Short-term trading suggestions for Ethereum:

1. Buy near the $2,650–$2,600 area, target $2,730–$2,800

2. Sell near the $2,950–$3,000 area, target $2,880–$2,850

[Friendly Reminder: Market conditions change rapidly, suggestions are for reference only, for more real-time consultation, feel free to communicate with me online]

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