Event Review 📜

In just a few minutes, the price of Bitcoin experienced significant fluctuations. Starting from the oversold area at $80,925, the market saw a series of forced liquidations of short positions due to policy optimism and technical stop-loss triggers, leading to a massive clearing of short positions. Subsequently, institutional reallocation and whale accumulation pushed the price to rebound rapidly to around $84,385. Multiple messages indicated that some Federal Reserve officials hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the future, and news of U.S. government stimulus policies and measures related to Trump emerged one after another. This series of macro policy signals reduced funding costs and increased market risk appetite, creating a technical buyback effect.

Timeline ⏱️

• 20:30
  The BTC price reached about $80,925, entering the oversold zone, with bullish signals beginning to appear; at the same time, some technical stop-loss orders were triggered, and with the initial signs of policy optimism, the market began to buy back.

• 20:30–21:50
  Within 46 minutes, the BTC price surged from $80,925 to the $84,315–$84,385 range, an increase of about 4.2%. During this period, the forced liquidation of short positions due to stop-losses triggered a large number of technical clearances, and institutional and whale funds quickly entered the market.

• 21:50
  After reaching a short-term peak of about $84,385, the price began to pull back, stabilizing around $84,190. The market's long and short forces tended to balance, and sentiment gradually stabilized.

Reason Analysis 💡

There are two main reasons behind this market fluctuation:

1. Change in Macro Policy Expectations

• Some officials from the Federal Reserve hinted in public statements that current policies are too tight and that there is potential for interest rate cuts in the future; at the same time, news about domestic stimulus plans, government reopening, and check distributions in the U.S. emerged one after another, significantly reducing funding costs and enhancing risk appetite.

1. Institutional Reallocation and Technical Liquidation

• Previous large ETF redemptions, institutional reallocations, and concentrated liquidations of short positions caused Bitcoin to fall into the oversold area. When some short positions triggered stop-losses or were forcibly liquidated, a large number of buyback orders quickly appeared in the market. Institutions and whales took the opportunity to accumulate again, coupled with rebound signals from technical indicators, leading to a sharp price recovery in a short time.

Technical Analysis 📊

This technical analysis is based on Binance USDT perpetual contract 45-minute candlestick data. Multiple signals indicate significant uncertainty regarding market turning points at this stage:

• Short-term Reversal Signals

• The MACD showed a golden cross, indicating a buy signal; at the same time, the KDJ indicator divergence and the "Three White Soldiers" pattern confirmed short-term upward momentum, with the TD Sequential entering a bullish Setup phase (6/9).

• The RSI broke above the upward trend line, indicating an increase in bullish sentiment in the short term.

• Long-term and Mid-term Bearish Structure

• In terms of moving averages, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are in a bearish arrangement, with the price encountering resistance near MA20; at the same time, the price is overall below the EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120 moving averages, indicating a continuation of the long-term downtrend.

• The EMA24 and EMA52 also show downward slopes (respectively -0.85% and -0.74%), indicating that the mid-term trend remains bearish.

• Although the MACD histogram has been increasing continuously, temporarily enhancing upward momentum, the overall moving average arrangement still shows a strong bearish structure, and the market still needs to pay attention to mid- to long-term resistance areas after the technical buyback.

• Market Trading Situation

• In the past hour, the total amount of liquidations across the network reached $6 million, with short positions accounting for 68%. At the same time, net inflows of main funds were about $100 million, indicating that institutions were reallocating significantly and buying on dips amid market volatility.

Market Outlook 🔮

Currently, BTC has experienced a short-term rebound after significant fluctuations, with its increase mainly benefiting from triggered technical stop-losses and macro easing expectations. However, long-term and mid-term technical indicators remain bearish, and the moving average system shows a clear bearish arrangement, indicating that the overall market trend has not completely reversed. Future trends need to focus on the following points:

• If the price can effectively break through and stabilize above key resistance levels such as MA20 and EMA20, it may initiate a new wave of rebound; otherwise, the risk of consolidation and further declines still exists.
• Macro policy signals will continue to ferment in the coming days, and improvements in market liquidity and policy easing subsidies will support short-term trends, but potential risks in funding and technical short pressures also exist simultaneously.
• If institutional reallocations and whale accumulation actions continue, it may lead to short-term price fluctuations upward; conversely, if market sentiment returns to rationality, technical adjustments may lower the overall price level.

In summary, the current BTC market is in a phase of short-term rebound intertwined with long-term adjustments. Investors should pay attention to macro policy dynamics and key technical support levels, remain cautious, and wait for clear trend reversal signals before making further arrangements.

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