In the interview, Duan Yongping talked about Moutai again.
He said that in 2021, when Moutai's stock price was around 2600 or 2700, he really wanted to sell Moutai because he felt that the price was high.
However, when he truly wanted to sell, he struggled internally for a long time because:
If he sold Moutai, he really didn't know what to buy?
When I heard this, I thought it was a common topic, as I had seen similar statements in his Q&A records long ago.
But then he said something that answered a lingering doubt in my mind.
He said (in essence):
If he sold and held cash, he would feel very uncomfortable because he had always been fully invested in stocks. So if he held cash, he would likely buy other stocks, but if he ended up buying other stocks, there was a high probability that those stocks would not perform as well as Moutai in the future. He believed that Moutai would rise again, but it was hard to say the same for other stocks.
So he decided to keep Moutai and did not sell.
After listening to this interview, I recalled two past experiences of my own.
One was during an earlier bull market when I happened to sell some coins at a relatively high point and got cash. But later, due to various reasons, I couldn't control myself and bought recklessly, losing quite a bit.
Later, when the bear market arrived, I realized the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the funds I could use to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum had significantly decreased.
Then, when the bull market came again, none of the coins I had bought recklessly managed to rise back to their former glory; it would have been better to have directly bought Bitcoin and Ethereum after selling. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum also fell sharply during the bear market, they eventually reached new highs in the next bull market and brought me surprises.
The second time was during that bull market when I sold Bitcoin and Ethereum but retained most of my funds, allowing me to buy back Bitcoin and Ethereum during the subsequent bear market.
Looking back on the second experience, the reason I was able to retain those funds was certainly not because I now understood the reasoning that Duan Yongping spoke about: that buying other stocks/coins might be worse than holding Moutai/Bitcoin and Ethereum; it was probably more about luck and intuition.
However, after hearing Duan Yongping explain this reasoning, I have a deeper understanding of why he did not sell Moutai.
For many people, selling Moutai/Bitcoin and Ethereum at a high point might be relatively easy.
What is truly difficult is: when you are holding a lot of cash, being able to maintain your composure and control your unconscious urge to buy things you don't understand or think you understand but actually don't.
I guess there are quite a few investors among our readers who fit this description, right?
They take profits at a good point but then waste their cash by buying recklessly, resulting in purchases that either go to zero or can never regain their former glory.
Now that I think about it, rather than buying various assets randomly, why not just buy Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Furthermore, reflecting on the time when I started dollar-cost averaging in 2022, instead of investing in so many assets, it would have been better to focus my dollar-cost averaging on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Additionally, I wonder:
Even if you can sell Bitcoin and Ethereum at the highest price in this bull market, when you are holding a lot of cash, can you control your spending and ensure that you don't waste that cash on various assets during the upcoming years of bear market?
The best scenario, of course, is to strictly control your spending, keep cash, and honestly buy back Bitcoin and Ethereum in the future.
However, if you can't do that, then why not just keep those Bitcoin and Ethereum and not sell them?
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