What is long-termism? The old cat and his philosophy of never selling.

In the ever-changing world of cryptocurrency, some chase trends, some shout slogans, while others choose to become believers in time. Lao Mao is such a legendary figure.

As one of the earliest evangelists in the industry, he has traversed four cycles of bull and bear markets, from being an early core member of exchanges to a keen venture capitalist, and now once again immersing himself in the field as a product founder. His experiences are a condensed history of industry development.

In this episode of "Friends of OKX," we had the privilege of engaging in a deep conversation with this "hardcore OG" for an hour and a half. With his usual transparency and candor, he shared his profound insights on market cycles, asset value, life philosophy, and even personal health without reservation.

Why does he assert that "the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is dead"? Why does he compare Bitcoin to "the English language of the digital world"? What ten-year journey lies behind the creation of his new product "Anchpor"? Most importantly, what does his statement "buying Bitcoin is the real profit-taking" imply about his thoughts on the ultimate outcome of trading?

This is not just an interview; it is a "masterclass" on investment, risk, and life. The purpose of this article is not to restore all details but to attempt to answer a more challenging question:

Why does a person, after experiencing four cycles of bull and bear markets, turn "never selling" into a worldview? What does "long-termism" mean for him?

Here is the interview series of Friends of OKX, featuring guest Lao Mao @Imlaomao, interviewed by Mercy @Mercy_okx.

1. The Core of Investment — Starting with a "Life-and-Death" Surgery

Quotable Insight: "I believe in 'Without long-term planning, there will be immediate worries.' Surgery is to avoid long-term risks, which aligns with my long-term investment philosophy. My long-term holding essentially aims to filter out potential operational mistakes from short-term fluctuations, simplifying my entire investment structure."

Mercy: Hello, Lao Mao. I understand you underwent a significant cervical spine surgery, and since then, you have started sharing more insights about life. Is there a connection between this discipline regarding your body and life and your consistently emphasized "long-term holding" strategy?

Lao Mao: The surgery is just a small episode in my life, although it felt monumental at the time.

My surgery involved opening up all five cervical vertebrae from the back and reattaching them with titanium alloy, with a risk level comparable to heart bypass surgery.

At that time, I considered many contingency plans, even arranging for posthumous matters, because life is unpredictable. But I still decided to go through with it because if I didn't, my future life would be in a very fragile state, with low quality of life and immense mental pressure, which is unacceptable for someone inherently optimistic like me.

I chose to endure the immediate risks of surgery to avoid greater long-term risks in the future. This aligns perfectly with my belief:

"Without long-term planning, there will be immediate worries." Rather than facing risks in the future, it is better to eliminate them in advance. This is completely in line with my investment philosophy.

My approach to "long-term holding" is essentially to filter out the risks of making mistakes due to frequent operations amid short-term fluctuations. You see, long-term holding only requires making one correct choice — choosing the right asset. Short-term trading, on the other hand, requires constant decision-making. Which is simpler? I naturally choose the simplest option.

So, whether it's the decision to undergo surgery or my investment perspective, it all stems from my internally unified core logic: simplify and focus on the long term.

Mercy: You have transitioned from exchanges to venture capital and now to founding your own product. How did you develop this cross-disciplinary, essence-grasping thinking framework?

Lao Mao: You are raising me too high. In fact, everyone's choices are a natural progression.

There is a saying that everyone lives the life they most want to live because every choice is made by themselves. I have always believed that success requires foundational core thinking, plus a bit of luck. I never shy away from discussing luck; I have always felt that I am blessed by it.

How do you verify whether a person relies on luck? It's simple: conduct a thought experiment. Put yourself on the next level; with your current state and understanding, can you reach today's position again?

If it feels precarious, then it's mostly luck.

Of course, luck alone is not enough; effort is essential. During the busiest years at Yunbi (2014-2017), it was common for me to work overtime until three or four in the morning, and sometimes even after finishing work at two, I felt unsatisfied and would write another article for my public account. So, you must do what you need to do, face challenges, and accept the arrangements of fate.

2. The Cycle is Dead, Fiat Currency is Becoming Worthless? — Redefining the Macro Narrative

Quotable Insight: "What drives Bitcoin's rise is not just the dollar, but the gradual entry of various global funds, or more directly, the process of global fiat currency becoming worthless. As long as its value is not disproven, the long-term upward trend is very certain."

Mercy: Arthur Hayes believes that the four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin is dead, and future cycles will be determined by dollar liquidity. What do you think of this view?

Lao Mao: I agree that "the cycle theory is over." I have also written articles stating that this cycle will not continue.

The fundamental reason lies in the essential change in supply and demand dynamics. Why was there a four-year cycle before? Because Bitcoin's supply (output) is halved every four years, and with demand remaining constant or increasing, the price naturally rises.

However, now, after multiple halvings, the daily new output of Bitcoin has become negligible in the face of massive global liquidity.

So, I believe that what drives Bitcoin's price increase is not just the dollar, but the gradual entry of various global funds.

To put it more directly, it is the process of global fiat currency becoming worthless.

This process will lead people seeking asset preservation to gradually participate. Of course, there will be fluctuations in the process; smart money comes in, makes profits, and sells to less smart money, and then Wall Street comes in…

But as long as the user base and consensus of Bitcoin grow exponentially and steadily, as long as its core value is not disproven, then I am very certain of the long-term upward trend.

Mercy: You mentioned "the collapse of the fiat currency system." Do you think this will happen within ten years? What does it mean for the crypto industry?

Lao Mao: Predicting the next ten years is very difficult. I do not believe that fiat currency will completely disappear within ten years. But "the collapse of fiat currency" is not a future event; it is an ongoing process.

This process began when the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971 and has been ongoing.

If you look at the curve of currency issuance in various countries, you will see that the value of fiat currency has been depreciating. This is essentially a structural transfer of assets, transferring wealth from ordinary people who have no concept of assets to a few individuals through inflation.

This process is happening in every country, just at different speeds of "relative decay."

In Australia over the past few years, the price of a cup of coffee has risen from 3 AUD to 5 or 6 AUD, doubling. Therefore, I firmly hold cryptocurrencies because I see this opportunity to hedge against fiat currency depreciation.

As for when fiat currency will "completely" collapse, we cannot control that; we just need to know that it is happening.

Mercy: A beginner's question: why can cryptocurrencies (like Bitcoin) resist inflation and not depreciate like fiat currency?

Lao Mao: This question is quite complex, and I will just provide a brief answer.

First, it is incorrect to say that "cryptocurrencies" do not depreciate; the issuance of thousands of other coins, apart from Bitcoin, is itself a form of inflation.

However, Bitcoin, due to its fixed total supply and deflationary model designed by Satoshi Nakamoto, along with the strong consensus formed over more than a decade of development, has the ability to resist fiat currency inflation.

This may have started as a utopian idea, but it has now become a reality.

If I were to put 10 million USD in the bank now, I would be very anxious because I know that next year its actual purchasing power might only be worth 9.5 million, and the year after that 9 million, even though the number remains unchanged.

But if I convert it to Bitcoin, its inherent appreciation becomes an effective way to hedge against fiat currency depreciation. So, it is not that cryptocurrencies do not depreciate, but that Bitcoin, which has formed the strongest consensus, possesses a powerful function to resist inflation.

3. Bitcoin: The "English" of the Digital World

Quotable Insight: "Bitcoin is the English of digital currencies. The likelihood of it being replaced will only decrease over time. Therefore, I will not hold large positions in other assets."

Mercy: How do the essence, performance, and risks of Bitcoin differ from traditional assets like real estate and stocks?

Lao Mao: If you look at the data from the past decade, the answer is clear. Bitcoin's growth has outpaced almost all asset classes that you and I can access. Of course, saying this is unfair to other assets because I have been a HODLER for over ten years.

The biggest risk of Bitcoin is precisely its greatest characteristic — volatility.

It is this enormous volatility that has wiped out countless people trying to "get rich" through leverage, even those using two or three times low leverage.

Many early holders of four-digit Bitcoin that I know have lost everything because they played with leverage.

Another hidden risk I call "the risk of restlessness."

Many people put Bitcoin in cold wallets, but they cannot stand the "loneliness" and always want to use it as collateral to earn some interest or participate in some investment projects.

As a result, they lose everything and end up in various rights protection groups. You have already held the asset with the highest growth over the past decade; why take these unnecessary risks?

So, for ordinary traders, there are two real risks: first, you chose a bunch of crypto assets but did not choose Bitcoin; second, you simply never held Bitcoin. Everything else, in the long run, is just noise.

Mercy: You are referred to as a "Bitcoin maximalist." How do you define the value of Bitcoin?

Lao Mao: I do not dare to wear that label lightly because I have also gone in circles and was once very optimistic about blockchain technology, but I was "educated" by reality multiple times, paying a lot of tuition before finally giving up on those "what-ifs."

Now, it is difficult for me to articulate new insights about Bitcoin's value because there are many who can speak and write better than I can.

But I have an analogy that may not be very appropriate, which I can share: English is currently the main language of communication in the world, right? This is an extremely powerful consensus. It is hard to imagine that another language could replace it in the coming decades. Bitcoin is the "English" of digital currencies.

The likelihood of it being replaced by other assets will only decrease over time, not increase. This is the fundamental logic behind why I will not hold large positions in other assets.

4. Altcoins and the "Experiment" of DeFi

Quotable Insight: "What is the value of altcoins? They are already altcoins. A knockoff shoe can still be worn, but what can an altcoin do? Apart from Bitcoin and stablecoins, if all others disappeared overnight, the world would operate normally without any issues."

Mercy: How do you view the recent significant market fluctuations and the statement that "the value of altcoins has gone to zero"?

Lao Mao: I think that statement is very accurate. Market makers do not come to this market for charity; they come to make money. Once a one-sided market appears, they will shut down their bots and run away to avoid their own risks, which is not a moral issue. A market that relies on market makers to maintain liquidity is inherently unhealthy. This recent crash is essentially the market squeezing out the bubbles.

The only meaning of altcoins' existence is to allow some capable individuals to make money through their extreme volatility and then exchange the profits for stablecoins, fiat currency, or Bitcoin, achieving wealth growth. But if you ask where its core value lies? It's already called "altcoin." I have a wallet from years ago where I participated in various projects, and when I opened it, I found a bunch of coins I didn't recognize, and the assets were basically worth nothing.

Therefore, the principle of Occam's Razor applies here as well: Entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity. Apart from Bitcoin and stablecoins, if other crypto assets disappeared overnight, the real world would not have any issues.

Mercy: Do you think DeFi counts as financial innovation?

Lao Mao: I think these are still considered "experiments" so far. They essentially replicate existing practices in the traditional financial world, such as asset collateralization and lending, through code and relationships on the blockchain.

But the problem is that many underlying assets in the DeFi world are artificially created tokens that lack solid value support, which makes its foundation far less stable than traditional finance.

Thus, we see that the DeFi space is always plagued with issues; one moment a project runs away, the next a protocol is attacked, and then there's liquidation. People are having a great time, and smart individuals can make money in it, just like a grand opening sale at a mall where early birds can grab eggs, and latecomers can get laundry detergent, but most people end up just consuming. Personally, I choose not to participate and continue to observe.

5. Anchpor: A Product I Thought About for Ten Years, A Trustworthy Solution

Quotable Insight: "I already have some assets, but ultimately I cannot take care of my family at certain times; I cannot bear the consequences of that. I hope for a reasonably priced tool that can genuinely help me solve this problem in case of an emergency."

Mercy: I'm curious, why did you create 'Anchpor'?

Lao Mao: I had this idea ten years ago.

At that time, I had just started to accumulate some assets, but I was extremely busy, flying more than 50 times a year. Every time the plane took off, I thought, if there was even the slightest chance, my assets would absolutely be untraceable by my family.

I am someone who has an absolute desire for independent management of assets and does not want my family to intervene too early. But on the other hand, if my unexpected situation leads them into a difficult life, I cannot accept that outcome at all.

At that time, I wondered if there was a mechanism to resolve this contradiction. High-end family trusts could work, but the threshold is too high, often requiring hundreds of millions of dollars and being very expensive.

I needed a reasonably priced tool that ordinary people could use, but that could effectively address this "emergency" issue. This is the original intention behind creating "Anchpor."

Mercy: How does "Anchpor" solve this problem? Who are its target users?

Lao Mao: Its core is a "smart transmission of important clues" function. Users can set an interaction cycle with the software (for example, 30 days), and if there is no login interaction for a long time, our platform will contact you via SMS, email, or even phone to confirm your status.

Once it is confirmed that you are unreachable after all efforts, the system will send a pre-prepared encrypted clue package to your designated recipient after your preset calm period (for example, 180 days).

The best part is that the password for this clue package can take the form of a "zero-knowledge proof." For example, you can hint to the recipient that the password is "the last four digits of your mother's passport" plus "the name of your family pet." This information is known only to you and the recipient, and our platform has no way of knowing it. This perfectly balances independent asset management and the ultimate protection for family members.

Its target users are people like me: those with certain assets who wish to manage them independently but have a strong sense of responsibility towards their family and are willing to spend $100 a year to provide their family with an "invisible insurance."

6. The Ultimate Outcome of Assets: A Person Who Never Sells

Quotable Insight: "I have always had an obsession: if the money in my external world is confirmed to be useless, the moment I buy Bitcoin is when I truly 'take profits' — profiting from the real world and buying Bitcoin as the conclusion of this transaction. I have not learned how to sell; I really do not know how to sell."

Mercy: MicroStrategy's strategy is "buy only, never sell," which is quite similar to yours. Have you considered selling Bitcoin to "take profits"?

Lao Mao: He really started much later than I did. What I am about to say may not sound human to newcomers, but I must speak the truth: I have never considered the so-called "taking profits." For me, that concept does not exist.

I have indeed sold some Bitcoin to buy a house and for living expenses in different places for my family.

But at this moment, I do not have a single stablecoin in the crypto world.

I have always had an obsession: when I feel that the fiat currency in my real world is no longer useful, the moment I use it to buy Bitcoin is when I truly "take profits." It is profiting from the real world and buying Bitcoin as the conclusion of this transaction.

Others say I am greedy for not selling when I have such cheap chips. I do not mind. I still think Bitcoin is too cheap right now. I have given up the thrill of volatility, leverage, and buying low and selling high because I truly understand that the collapse of the fiat currency world will continue indefinitely.

So, I really have not learned how to sell, and I do not know how to sell. As long as my existing fiat currency is enough, I will not sell.

7. The Next Ten Years: Two Tracks, One Principle

Mercy: Looking ahead to the next 5-10 years, which track would you choose to invest in?

Lao Mao: I choose two tracks: AI and Crypto. And my choice is particularly simple; in AI, I only invest in Tesla, and in Crypto, I only invest in Bitcoin.

These are both assets I would hold for over ten years. Tesla is the only unique company that integrates AI with the real world and possesses strong industrial production capabilities; its vision is unmatched. The Tesla I drive is gifted by Tesla stock (laughs).

Mercy: Do you have any advice for young people?

Lao Mao: I have only one piece of advice for young people because I have gone through it myself: Please be sure to understand that the crypto industry is actually in a process of continuous falsification.

Many things that seem correct now may be disproven after a while, leading to a value of zero. There are opportunities in this process, but the risks are greater.

So, never bet everything on a single thing; always give yourself a chance to start over.

The reason I have come this far over the years is that I have always been deliberately conservative and have been very, very restrained in my desires.

8. About OKX: A Steady Long-Termist

Mercy: What is your impression of OKX? What kind of company do you think OKX is?

Lao Mao: I previously expressed some opinions on Twitter about some minor issues, but later I found that OKX has indeed made significant efforts to resolve those issues. I think OKX is a company leaning towards stability and a technical route. You are working on compliance and have even obtained some licenses in many places; it is a long-termist company.

Disclaimer:

This article is for reference only. It represents the author's views and does not reflect the position of OKX. This article does not intend to provide (i) investment advice or recommendations; (ii) offers or solicitations to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of such information. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins and NFTs) involves high risks and may fluctuate significantly. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and past performance does not represent future outcomes. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. Please consult your legal/tax/investment professionals regarding your specific circumstances. You are responsible for understanding and complying with applicable local laws and regulations.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。