Last night, the non-farm payroll data for September was released, showing an increase of 119,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. The initial jobless claims data also performed reasonably well; however, the unemployment rate for September recorded at 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, indicating a rising trend. Nevertheless, the favorable non-farm payroll and initial jobless claims data for September supported the views of some "hawkish" Federal Reserve officials regarding a rate decision in December. October is expected to be a month of stagnation, and the unemployment rate is likely to remain poor, making the missing data more challenging for the December rate cut decision.

In the early morning, hawkish voices from the Federal Reserve emerged, with Governor Cook stating that "the likelihood of a significant drop in asset prices has increased," and Harmack mentioning that additional rate cuts would "increase financial stability risks." Barr and Goolsbee reiterated their concerns about inflation and emphasized the need for caution regarding further rate cuts. During this period, the cryptocurrency market faced pressured sell-offs.

Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market opened high but fell sharply during the day, experiencing the most severe intraday reversal since April, with the benchmark index dropping to a two-month low. The selling sentiment also affected the cryptocurrency market. Market panic spread intensely, with Bitcoin dropping again during the day, falling below 88,000 to around 86,000, and Ethereum testing 2,800 after breaking below 2,900, with selling pressure intensifying!

From a technical perspective, the recent trend has continued to lean towards weakness, with a breakout situation occurring. On the indicators, both the weekly and daily charts for BTC show multiple indicators pressing downwards. The MACD remains in negative territory with continued bearish volume, and a high ADX indicates a weak trend, with bearish sentiment prevailing. As mentioned in last week's analysis, after losing the 90,000 level, the next major support is in the 86,000-78,000 range, which is a densely packed support area visible on the technical chart and a key area for this downward correction. If it breaks down again, the characteristics of a bear market will become more apparent.

After a sharp short-term drop, the hourly and half-hourly indicators are severely oversold, and they are currently operating with reduced volume. Once the market stabilizes, there will be a demand for corrective rebounds during the day, with attention on the rebound situation during the Asian and European sessions. The short-term resistance above is focused on the 90,000 level.

Short-term trading suggestions for Bitcoin:

1. Defend long positions near the 86,000-85,500 area, targeting 87,300-88,000

2. Short positions near the 89,500-90,200 area on rebounds, targeting 89,000-88,500

Ethereum is also affected by both macroeconomic conditions and changes in capital flow, experiencing a decline due to weak buying pressure, similar to Bitcoin's trend.

From a technical perspective, ETH's movement shows characteristics of probing support but with weak rebounds. According to technical data, ETH's average true range is between 8.5% and 9.4%, indicating that its recent volatility remains quite intense. In terms of support/resistance structure, after breaking below the 3,000 level, it has tested a low of around 2,800. This area is also a key short-term support, and the critical support zone of 2,800-2,200 is essential for this round of decline. If this position is lost, it will further deepen the bear market characteristics, similar to Bitcoin.

After the oversold situation in the early morning, short-term indicators are expected to rebound and correct. The Asian and European markets will follow Bitcoin's rhythm to observe the rebound strength. In the short term, the support and resistance are shifting, with resistance now at 3,000, which is the level that needs to be overcome for a rebound during the day.

Short-term trading suggestions for Ethereum:

1. Defend long positions near the 2,810-2,770 area, targeting 2,870-2,930

2. Short positions near the 2,950-3,000 area on rebounds, targeting 2,900-2,870

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