Key Points:
Bitcoin derivatives indicators show that traders have taken precautions, but the data indicates that panic levels have not yet been reached.
The outflow of Bitcoin ETF funds and weakness in the tech sector have dampened market sentiment, leading to investor doubts about Bitcoin's ability to hold the $89,000 level.
On Wednesday, market data showed that Bitcoin failed to reclaim $93,500 in the previous trading day and retested the $89,000 mark again. This movement surprised traders and led to the liquidation of $144 million in leveraged long positions. Regardless of the driving factors behind this adjustment, the Bitcoin derivatives market has shown stability, suggesting that a bullish pattern still exists.
Data shows that on Wednesday, the monthly futures premium for Bitcoin remained about 4% higher than the spot price, slightly below the typically neutral level of 5%. Some analysts believe that when Bitcoin fell below $89,200 on Tuesday, this indicator briefly turned negative, but aggregated data from major exchanges does not support this claim. A futures contract trading at a discount usually indicates excessive confidence among short sellers.
To assess whether retail investors are more affected, it is necessary to observe perpetual contracts. These contracts are highly correlated with spot prices but balance leverage through funding rates. Under normal circumstances, long positions need to pay an annualized fee of 6% to 12% to maintain their positions, while rates below this range indicate a bearish market.
The funding rate for BTC perpetual futures approached 4% on Wednesday, consistent with the average level over the past two weeks. Although this level still reflects a bearish stance, there are no signs of panic or excessive confidence among bears. The weakness seems retrospective, as Bitcoin has been declining since reaching an all-time high on October 6.
Data shows that over the past week, the Bitcoin options delta skew has remained close to 11%, indicating that traders' overall risk expectations have not changed much. Cautious sentiment persists, as the premium for put options compared to call options remains above the neutral level of 6%. This suggests that large holders and market makers are still concerned about downside risks, although the current level is significantly distant from extreme pressure.
Statistics show that five consecutive trading days of net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have also put pressure on market sentiment. A total of $2.26 billion has been withdrawn from related products, leading market makers to sell in batches throughout the day, creating continuous selling pressure. However, this amount accounts for less than 2% of the entire Bitcoin ETF market.
Some of the world's largest tech companies, including Oracle (ORCL US), Ubiquiti (UI US), Oklo (OKLO US), and Roblox (RBLX US), have dropped 19% or more in the past 30 days. The shift towards risk aversion is not limited to cryptocurrencies but also reflects concerns about the weakness in the U.S. job market. The more risky segments, especially those related to AI infrastructure, have suffered the most severe losses.
Additional pressure comes from the consumer sector, which is feeling the impact of the U.S. government shutdown lasting until November 12. Retailer Target (TGT US) lowered its full-year profit forecast on Wednesday and warned that the holiday season will be weaker due to ongoing affordability pressures. Inflation remains a significant issue as it limits the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates.
Regardless of Nvidia's upcoming quarterly results, some analysts question "the nature of certain AI investments among Nvidia's own customers," according to Yahoo Finance. What drives investors away from Bitcoin's digital gold narrative remains uncertain, but at this stage, the likelihood of BTC reclaiming $95,000 is closely related to improvements in macroeconomic conditions.
Related: How Square's new Bitcoin (BTC) payment is changing the way merchants accept funds online
Original: “Even as BTC price drops to $89,000, Bitcoin futures traders refuse to capitulate”
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