As Bitcoin prices undergo a significant correction and market sentiment fluctuates, Michael Saylor, the founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and a staunch advocate and largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has made bold statements once again. He not only dismisses Wall Street's concerns about Bitcoin's volatility but also makes an audacious prediction: as the asset matures, Bitcoin's volatility will continue to decline, potentially reaching levels comparable to the S&P 500 index in the future, and "its performance will also be 1.5 times better than the S&P 500." This assertion, combined with the current changes in the internal structure of the cryptocurrency market and potential macroeconomic risks, has sparked deep reflections on how institutional entry will disrupt traditional financial paradigms.
- Michael Saylor's "Bitcoin Maturity Theory": Declining Volatility and Outperforming the S&P 500
As a "preacher" of Bitcoin and the largest corporate holder, Michael Saylor's predictions for Bitcoin's future are filled with optimism and confidence.
Significant Decline in Volatility: He pointed out that when he began purchasing Bitcoin for Strategy in 2020, its annualized volatility was around 80%. Since then, Bitcoin's volatility has been on a downward trend, currently around 50%. He believes that Bitcoin's volatility may further decrease by about 5 percentage points every few years, and as the asset matures, Bitcoin's volatility will approach 1.5 times that of the S&P 500 index.
Outperforming the S&P 500: Saylor boldly predicts that Bitcoin's performance will also exceed that of the S&P 500 index by 1.5 times in the future.
Withstanding Significant Drawdowns: Additionally, Michael Saylor expressed that he is not worried about Bitcoin experiencing larger declines, as the company's design can withstand drawdowns of 80% to 90% and still operate normally.
- Structural Changes in the Market: Speculative Capital Flowing into Binance, Driving Volatility
Meanwhile, the internal structure of the cryptocurrency market is undergoing notable changes, with the Bitcoin Day-One Dominance (DOD) indicator on Binance revealing the dominant role of short-term speculative capital.
DOD Soars to Historic Highs: According to CryptoOnchain's analysis of the Bitcoin Day-One Dominance (DOD) chart on Binance, DOD measures the percentage of Bitcoin inflows that have been in the market for less than a day, reflecting how much of the capital flowing into Binance is "hot money" actively participating in the market. The data shows that this indicator surged from about 70% in 2022, breaking the 90% mark in early 2025, and recently reached a historic high of nearly 100% (99.9%).
Speculation Driving Volatility: This significant increase indicates that nearly all Bitcoin inflows into Binance come from active wallets and short-term traders, rather than long-term holders selling. This highlights two key points: Binance has solidified its position more than ever as the primary battleground for day traders, short-term traders, and high-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms. This trend, synchronized with the rise in Bitcoin prices, suggests that recent volatility is primarily driven by short-term speculative capital rather than selling pressure from established investors.
- Macroeconomic Background: U.S. Stock Market Correction and Federal Reserve Concerns
As the structural changes in the Bitcoin market unfold, the macroeconomic backdrop is also filled with uncertainties.
U.S. Stock Market Correction and Buying Opportunities: JPMorgan's trading department stated that the longest consecutive decline in U.S. stocks since August has created opportunities for bargain hunters. Due to concerns about the sustainability of the AI concept rally and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, the S&P 500 index has fallen for four consecutive days, down a cumulative 3.4% as of Tuesday's close. Andrew Tyler, JPMorgan's global market intelligence chief, believes this correction represents a "technical washout" in the stock market, and the adjustment period may be over.
Federal Reserve's Concerns About Stock Market Declines: The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that several participants emphasized the possibility of a disorderly decline in the stock market, especially in the event of a sudden reassessment of AI-related prospects.
Risks in the Repurchase Market: The manager of the SOMA (System Open Market Account) suggested that the Federal Reserve should promptly halt the reduction of its balance sheet, as excessive volatility in the repurchase market poses risks to the Fed's interest rate control and the Treasury market.
Banks Resist Federal Reserve Suggestions: Dealers rejected the New York Fed's suggestion to use loan tools to ease market tensions. They believe that borrowing directly from the central bank carries a certain stigma risk, which may be seen as a signal of problems, and this is one of the reasons they are reluctant to use the Standing Repo Facility (SRF).
- Long-Term Outlook for Bitcoin: Institutional Entry and Volatility Management
Michael Saylor's predictions, along with the current structural changes in the cryptocurrency market, collectively paint a picture of Bitcoin's long-term prospects.
Impact of Institutional Entry: With the decline in Bitcoin's volatility and the entry of institutions, Bitcoin is gradually being accepted by mainstream financial markets, becoming an important component of institutional investors' asset allocation.
Volatility Management: Although Bitcoin's price is driven by speculative capital in the short term, in the long run, as the asset matures and the process of institutionalization accelerates, its volatility is expected to further decrease, making it more attractive for investment.
Disrupting Traditional Finance: The rise of Bitcoin and its acceptance by institutions heralds a quiet transformation that is disrupting traditional financial paradigms. Bitcoin is gradually moving from a fringe asset to the core of the financial system.
Conclusion:
Michael Saylor's audacious prediction regarding the decline in Bitcoin's volatility and its future performance exceeding that of the S&P 500 has injected strong optimism into the cryptocurrency market. Although the current market is driven by short-term speculative capital and the macroeconomic backdrop is filled with uncertainties, the potential of Bitcoin as a mature asset is increasingly evident. With institutional entry and advancements in volatility management techniques, Bitcoin is poised to disrupt traditional finance and become an important part of asset allocation in the future.
Related Reading: Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan: International shipping rents will be "tokenized," stablecoin licenses will be issued next year
Original Article: “Michael Saylor: Bitcoin (BTC) Volatility Drops to 50%, Poised to Double and Outperform the S&P 500”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
