Last night, NVIDIA delivered a stunning report card.
In the third quarter, revenue reached $57 billion, a staggering 62% year-on-year increase, and net profit soared 65% to $31.9 billion. This marks NVIDIA's twelfth consecutive earnings surprise. Following the earnings report, the stock price surged 4-6% in after-hours trading, and continued to rise 5.1% in pre-market trading the next day, adding approximately $22 billion to the company's market value and also boosting Nasdaq futures by 1.5-2%.
Logically, with such positive market sentiment, Bitcoin, the digital gold, should also benefit, right? However, reality slapped us in the face—Bitcoin not only failed to rise but instead fell, with the price sliding to $91,363, a drop of about 3%.
NVIDIA surged, but Bitcoin fell?
Those who once viewed Bitcoin as a safe haven are likely feeling uneasy now.
Initially marketed as a "tool against inflation" and a "safe haven during economic anxiety," its current performance resembles that of a high-risk tech stock rather than a safe-haven asset like physical gold.
The data is even more straightforward: after plummeting 26% from its historical high in early October, Bitcoin's price has essentially returned to the level it was at the beginning of the year. In other words, this entire year has been a wasted effort.
Meanwhile, what about real gold? It has soared 55% in 2025. The psychological gap for Bitcoin holders is indeed significant.
The factors driving gold prices up are quite clear: potential interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, increased market volatility, and an unclear economic outlook. According to traditional Bitcoin logic, these conditions should also push Bitcoin prices higher. But the reality is quite the opposite.
CME economist Mark Shore pointed out back in May that since 2020, Bitcoin and U.S. stocks have shown a positive correlation, which has persisted to this day. More critically, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into institutional investors through ETFs and publicly listed cryptocurrency companies has reached an all-time high over the past year.
In other words, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly "mainstream," but the cost is that it is also resembling a traditional risk asset more and more.
Of course, the reason for "NVIDIA surging while Bitcoin fell" also lies in the flow of funds.
NVIDIA benefits from the undeniable demand in the AI sector. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that "computational demand continues to accelerate," and the newly launched Blackwell chips are selling "off the charts," with $500 billion in order visibility directly alleviating market concerns about an AI bubble. Major cloud service providers, such as Amazon and Microsoft, have exceeded $380 billion in capital expenditures this year, with most of that money flowing to NVIDIA.
And Bitcoin? It is bearing the brunt of a widespread risk-averse sentiment. As a "high Beta risk asset," it is the first to suffer in a tightening liquidity environment. In just one week, it has dropped 12.5%. On November 13, cryptocurrency ETFs saw a net outflow of $867 million in a single day, with long-term holders beginning to sell off, and the supply of dormant Bitcoin has decreased from 8 million at the beginning of the year to 7.32 million.
So what conditions does Bitcoin need to rise?
Although the current situation is not very optimistic, it is not without a turning point. For Bitcoin to take off again, several key conditions may need to be met simultaneously.
Liquidity injection after the U.S. government reopens
The 43-day government shutdown officially ended on November 18. This shutdown affected 1.25 million federal employees, resulting in about $16 billion in lost wages and causing the consumer confidence index to drop to a three-year low of 50.4.
Now that the government has reopened, liquidity injection becomes crucial.
Here’s a concept to understand—TGA (Treasury General Account), which is the main operating account of the U.S. Treasury at the Federal Reserve. All government revenues and expenditures go through this account. When the TGA increases, it indicates that funds are flowing from the market to the government, reducing market liquidity; conversely, when the TGA decreases, government spending injects funds into the market, increasing liquidity.
Data shows that from October 1 to November 12, 2025, during these 43 days, the TGA balance continued to accumulate, reaching a peak of $959 billion on November 14. This level is far above the cash position typically maintained by the Treasury, mainly due to limited spending during the government shutdown and ongoing debt issuance, leading to a large accumulation of cash in the Treasury account.
Currently, TGA data does not show a significant decline.
Based on the timing of the government reopening on November 13, 2025, and referencing historical experience, it is expected that in the first week, government employees will first receive back pay, injecting about $16 billion into the economy, which will have a relatively small impact. In other words, before November 20, it will be difficult to see a large influx of liquidity.
In another 1-2 weeks, around early December, as the TGA normalizes operations, regular government spending resumes, and tax revenues return seasonally, the TGA balance will begin to fluctuate and release significantly, allowing the market to start feeling a noticeable improvement in liquidity.
Increased interbank liquidity and ample institutional funds would also mean that Bitcoin, as a risk asset, would receive inflows and experience a rise.
The experience from early 2019 provides an important reference. At that time, the U.S. government also experienced a long shutdown, lasting from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, for a total of 35 days. During the shutdown, the TGA balance also accumulated significantly, reaching $413 billion on January 29, 2019. After the government resumed operations, the Treasury quickly increased spending, reducing the TGA balance by $211 billion in just one month from January 29 to March 1, injecting those funds into the financial system and bringing significant liquidity improvement. This drove the stock market and Bitcoin to rise 8.5% and 35%, respectively, within 30 days after reopening.
Comparing the current situation, the TGA balance in November 2025 reached $959 billion, far exceeding the $413 billion in 2019, indicating a potentially more substantial scale of liquidity release.
Federal Reserve policy shift
Speaking of the Federal Reserve, this is another major factor influencing Bitcoin's trajectory.
The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that officials have serious disagreements about whether a third consecutive rate cut is necessary. Most officials believe that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks. White House economic advisor Hassett even admitted that "we have lost control of inflation."
Trump has once again expressed his "incompetent rage," directly attacking Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, stating that he "would love to fire him; he is extremely incompetent."
According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is only 36.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is as high as 63.8%.
Worse still, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the household data for October (used to calculate unemployment rates and other key statistics) cannot be backtracked, so the October employment report will not be released, and these non-farm employment data will be included in the November employment report, which will be released on December 16. This means that the Federal Reserve will not have access to critical employment data during its last meeting of the year.
Additionally, with U.S. Treasury yields rising, yields on major maturities have generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.5 basis points. Market expectations for a December rate cut have essentially evaporated, with the probability of a cut dropping to around 31%.
However, if we broaden our perspective, the situation may not be so bleak. The delayed November employment data will be released on December 16, and if the data is weak, it could still support expectations for the next wave of rate cuts, likely around January 27 next year. Currently, the probability of a rate cut is 48%, the highest for the 2026 meetings.
Furthermore, while the Federal Reserve's stance is ambiguous, other major central banks around the world, which are more dovish, have already taken action. This undercurrent could become an important driver for Bitcoin's rise.
For example, the European Central Bank is currently maintaining the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, but there is a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, as inflation has fallen to 2.1%, close to the target level. There is an interesting statistic: historically, the correlation between ECB rate cuts and Bitcoin price increases is as high as 0.85. Why? Because liquidity easing in the Eurozone spills over into global markets, enhancing overall risk appetite.
Significant economic improvement
The current U.S. economy presents a very subtle state—there are both bright spots and hidden concerns.
In August, the trade deficit narrowed significantly, dropping 23.8% to $59.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $61 billion. This was mainly due to a 6.6% decline in goods imports as a result of tariff effects. This change is expected to contribute 1.5-2.0 percentage points to third-quarter GDP growth, raising growth estimates to 3.8%. Sounds good, right? But the problem is that this improvement comes at the expense of imports, which may affect supply chains and consumption in the long run.
Although the 43-day government shutdown has ended, the damage it caused is still ongoing. The $16 billion in lost wages, the consumer confidence index dropping to a three-year low of 50.4, and the CBO estimating a 1.5 percentage point loss in fourth-quarter GDP—these numbers reflect real economic pain.
Food inflation is also critical; what used to cost $100 now costs $250, and the quality has worsened. The egg price surge has just eased, but the American favorite beef is facing new inflation.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on October 24 shows that the prices of roasted beef and steak have increased by 18.4% and 16.6% year-on-year, respectively. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the retail price of ground beef has skyrocketed to $6.1 per pound, setting a new historical high. Compared to three years ago, beef prices have cumulatively risen over 50%.
Additionally, coffee prices have risen by 18.9%, natural gas prices by 11.7%, electricity costs by 5.1%, and car repair costs by 11.5%. Many young Americans burdened with student debt are feeling even more pressure due to rising living costs.
The "K-shaped economic warning signal" may be the most concerning trend in the current U.S. economic situation. Nearly 25% of American households are living paycheck to paycheck, with wages for low-income groups stagnating, while high-income groups (which account for 50% of consumption) continue to benefit from AI investments. The risk of economic divergence is sharply increasing.
Moreover, tariff policies continue to drag down global export economies, with Japan, Switzerland, and Mexico all experiencing contractions in the third quarter. This chain reaction in the global economy will ultimately return to the U.S. market, affecting investors' risk appetite.
However, if the U.S. government can improve the economy, then various assets, including Bitcoin, will have the opportunity to rise.
Institutional funds returning
If the previous conditions are the "timing," then institutional funds represent the "people." This could be the most direct and immediate catalyst.
I have to say, the current data doesn't look good. From November 13 to 19, there was a net outflow of $2 billion from ETFs (about 20,000 Bitcoins), the largest weekly outflow since February this year. The current assets under management (AUM) stand at $122.3 billion, accounting for 6.6% of Bitcoin's total market value.
What does this mean? Institutional investors are retreating, and at a rapid pace.
After all, in the current macro environment, institutional funds are also facing multiple pressures: first, there is a severe liquidity stratification phenomenon. The tech/AI sector is receiving ample funding, traditional safe-haven assets like gold are performing strongly, while the liquidity of purely risk assets like cryptocurrencies is drying up. The money hasn't disappeared; it's just gone elsewhere.
Moreover, the typical behavior patterns of institutional investors and fund managers are often shaped by an incentive structure that emphasizes "avoiding mistakes." The internal evaluation system in the industry focuses more on "not falling behind peers" rather than "achieving excess returns." Within this framework, taking risks that contradict mainstream views often comes at a cost far greater than the potential rewards.
As a result, most managers tend to maintain a position structure consistent with mainstream market allocations. For example, if Bitcoin is undergoing an overall correction, and a fund manager maintains a significant long position, their drawdown will be interpreted as a "judgment error," leading to criticism that far outweighs the recognition gained from equivalent returns. Ultimately, under such institutional constraints, "conservatism" becomes a rational choice.
However, history tells us that the flow of institutional funds often reverses suddenly at a certain critical point. So where is this critical point? There are three clear signals:
Signal 1: Three consecutive days of net inflow
This is the most important signal. Historical data shows that when ETF fund flows turn positive and maintain net inflows for three consecutive days, Bitcoin tends to rise by 60-70% within an average of 60-100 days.
Why is this so magical? Because institutional investment is the area where the "herd effect" is most pronounced. Once the trend reverses, subsequent funds will follow like a domino effect. The rally at the beginning of 2024 started this way.
Signal 2: Single-day inflow exceeds $500 million
This represents a signal for large institutions to enter the market. In October 2024, a single week saw an inflow of $3.24 billion, directly pushing Bitcoin to break its historical high. Such momentum is something retail investors simply cannot achieve.
What does a single-day inflow of $500 million signify? It is equivalent to giants like BlackRock and Fidelity simultaneously deciding to increase their positions. This level of capital entering the market is often accompanied by clear macro judgments—they see signals that ordinary investors do not.
Signal 3: AUM ratio rebounds to above 8%
Currently, the $122.3 billion AUM accounts for 6.6% of Bitcoin's market value, which is relatively low historically. During the peak period in 2024, this ratio reached 8-9%. When this ratio begins to rise, it indicates that institutions are not only buying Bitcoin but are doing so at a pace that exceeds the rate of Bitcoin price increases.
So under what circumstances will institutional funds flow back?
Basically, it boils down to what was mentioned earlier: clear signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve; clarity in U.S. economic data; global central bank coordinated easing creating resonance; and technical breakthroughs at key resistance levels, etc.
Possible time points for a price increase
After discussing so many conditions, what everyone may be most concerned about is: when will it actually rise?
While no one can precisely predict the market, we can identify several key nodes based on the timeline of macro events.
December 10: FOMC Meeting
This is the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year and the most closely watched event in the market.
If a rate cut occurs, Bitcoin may experience a surge; if not, it could drop again.
A key point here: even if there is no rate cut, if the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals (such as emphasizing "maintaining flexibility" or "closely monitoring employment data"), it will still support market sentiment. Conversely, if there is no rate cut and the stance is hawkish, then be prepared for short-term pressure.
December 16: Delayed November Employment Data
This data will include a complete picture of October and November, confirming the true trends in the labor market.
If the data is weak for two consecutive months, the probability of a rate cut in early 2026 will significantly increase. This would provide mid-term support for Bitcoin. If the data is chaotic or contradictory, the market may continue to be entangled, and the range-bound pattern will persist.
The certainty of the data release is high, but the quality of the data itself may be unreliable (due to statistical chaos caused by the government shutdown), so market reactions may be more based on interpretations rather than the data itself.
Late December to Year-End: The "Traditional Peak Season" for Liquidity
This is an interesting seasonal pattern. Historically, from late December to the New Year, institutional investors engage in year-end rebalancing, and the reduced trading volume during the holidays amplifies price volatility.
If the earlier events create a cumulative positive effect, there may be a "Christmas rally" at the end of the year. However, one must also be wary of the "sell the news" effect—profit-taking after good news is realized.
First Quarter of 2026: The "Great Game" of Global Coordinated Easing
This is the time window with the most imaginative potential.
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December or January, and the European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China continue to maintain easing, a scenario of synchronized global liquidity improvement will form. In this case, Bitcoin could see a resurgence similar to the explosive rally in 2020—when it rose from a low of $3,800 in March to $28,000 by the end of the year, an increase of over 600%.
Of course, it is unlikely that 2026 will completely replicate 2020 (the pandemic stimulus was unprecedented), but a combination of global central bank coordinated easing, TGA fund releases, and institutional fund inflows could drive a significant market rally.
The likelihood of synchronized global liquidity easing is moderately high (60-65%). Central banks around the world are facing pressures from economic slowdowns, making easing a high-probability event.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
