Key Points:
XRP has confirmed a bearish descending triangle pattern, facing potential risks of dropping to $1.55.
The bearish divergence signal from the weekly RSI indicator suggests that downward momentum is intensifying.
The low number of daily active addresses reflects insufficient network activity and liquidity, further amplifying the sell-off risk for XRP.
XRP's price has dropped 11% compared to a week ago, with multiple technical indicators converging to suggest a possible further adjustment to the $1.55 level.
Since breaking below the psychological threshold of $3 in October, XRP has formed a clear descending triangle pattern on the 8-hour chart.
Analysts point out that the descending triangle chart pattern—characterized by a flat support level and a downward-sloping resistance line—gets confirmed when the price breaks below the flat support level, typically leading to a price drop equal to the maximum height of the triangle.
The XRP/USD trading pair officially confirmed the completion of the descending triangle pattern when it broke below the pattern's support line at $2.20 on Monday.
Bullish investors are struggling to keep XRP above the $2 support level. Market experts believe that if this key level is breached, XRP's price is likely to drop towards the triangle measurement target of $1.55 before the end of November, representing a decline of about 25% from the current price level.
The breakout of the XRP descending triangle validates earlier technical analysis warnings, which indicated that if the key support level could not be maintained, the price could drop to as low as $1.61.
Glassnode's distribution heatmap shows a significant concentration of chips between $2.38 and $2.40 (surrounded by the 100-day moving average and triangle resistance line), with approximately 3.23 billion XRP bought in this range. This constitutes a strong resistance area for XRP, further increasing downward pressure.
Technical analysts state that XRP's downward trend is supported by the bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index (RSI).
The lower weekly chart shows that the XRP/USD pair steadily rose between November 2024 and July 2025, forming higher highs within an ascending channel. However, it is noteworthy that during the same period, its weekly RSI dropped from 92 to 68, forming lower highs, as shown in the lower weekly chart.
Market experts explain that a divergence where the price rises while the RSI declines is often an important signal of weakening dominant upward trends, leading traders to increase selling pressure at local highs as profit-taking intensifies and buying power gradually diminishes.
The RSI has further declined to 39, indicating that the current market conditions still lean towards a downward trend.
The above chart also reveals that XRP faces strong resistance from the 50-week moving average at $2.32. The upward pressure from this position may continue to suppress XRP's price performance in the coming weeks.
Over the past four months, network activity on the XRP ledger has consistently shown a sluggish trend. On-chain data analysis from Glassnode indicates that the number of daily active addresses (DAAs) on the network is currently far below the historical high of 577,000 DAAs set on June 14.
As of the time of writing, the XRP ledger maintains only about 44,000 DAAs, with user transaction volume significantly shrinking, a phenomenon that may indicate a decline in market interest or confidence in XRP's short-term development prospects.
The number of new addresses has also shown a significant downward trend, plummeting from 13,500 on November 10 to only 4,000 daily currently, further confirming the dual decline in network adoption and user engagement.
Historically, a decline in network activity often signals that prices are about to stagnate or drop, as decreased trading volume reduces liquidity and buying momentum.
Related: Ripple's $1 billion buyback plan fails to boost prices: Can XRP rebound?
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “XRP Price at Risk of a 25% Drop to $1.55: Here’s Why”
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