Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On November 19, the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets were in a state of insomnia as all eyes were on the highly anticipated AI first stock, NVIDIA, which was about to announce its earnings report. Its performance data would significantly impact the subsequent market fluctuations. The Nasdaq index briefly fell to 22,231, the S&P 500 dropped to 6,574, and Bitcoin plummeted from around $93,000 at 4 AM on November 19 to a low of approximately $88,600.
Fortunately, NVIDIA's earnings report brought good news to the market.
NVIDIA Q3 Revenue at $57 Billion, Exceeding Expectations
As the "shovel seller" of the AI era, NVIDIA not only supports half of the Nasdaq but has also become a barometer for global risk assets. Data shows that over the past six months, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) has remained high. The fluctuations of the Nasdaq largely depend on NVIDIA's performance.
On November 20, Beijing time, NVIDIA announced its Q3 earnings report (for the calendar year from August to October) with revenue of $57.01 billion, surpassing the expected $55.19 billion; adjusted EPS was $1.30, exceeding the expected $1.26; data center revenue reached $51.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%.
The performance remains unbeatable, with NVDA rising to $187 at one point.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated in the earnings announcement that the sales of the company's latest generation Blackwell architecture chips "far exceeded expectations, and cloud GPUs are sold out," adding that "the demand for training and inference computing continues to accelerate, showing exponential growth. We have entered a virtuous cycle of AI." He reiterated during the earnings call that the claims of an AI bubble are numerous, stating, "From our perspective, it is entirely different."
NVIDIA's earnings data reassured the U.S. stock market, halting the downward trend, and the cryptocurrency market also saw a rebound. BTC has now rebounded to around $92,000, fluctuating in that range.
Internal Divisions at the Federal Reserve, December Rate Cut Uncertain
The minutes from the October FOMC meeting released yesterday revealed rare divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue cutting rates in December. Hawkish members clearly stated a "stronger data dependency," expressing concerns about the risk of inflation rebounding; dovish members emphasized that the labor market is rapidly cooling and that "preemptive rate cuts" are needed.
The current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75%–4.00%, which is the level after the second rate cut of 25 basis points in 2025. However, a statement in the minutes that "a number of participants noted that it might be appropriate to pause" left the market in confusion.
The latest data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has plummeted from 95% two weeks ago to just 28%. Polymarket's latest data indicates that the market's bet on the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped to 30%, while the probability of no rate cut has risen to 67%.
Now that rate cut expectations have been halved, the shadow of tightening liquidity looms again, putting pressure on the prices of risk assets.
To make matters worse, the U.S. non-farm payroll report for November has been officially postponed to December 16 due to government funding expiration affecting the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) work. The October non-farm data had already been significantly revised down due to factors like hurricanes, and the September data was also delayed; now the November data will have to wait nearly another month.
The market has completely lost its most critical anchor.
Goldman Sachs' latest forecast suggests that November non-farm payrolls will likely only increase by 50,000 to 80,000 jobs, far below the previous value of 220,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rebounding to 4.3%. If the data turns out to be very poor, the hawks at the Federal Reserve will gain the upper hand, and the rate cut cycle may be paused directly in the first quarter of 2026. Conversely, if the data is unexpectedly strong, it will further reinforce the expectation of "no rate cuts."
Trump Slams Powell, New Federal Reserve Candidates May Be Announced Before December 25
Less than two hours after NVIDIA's earnings report was released, Trump gave an interview where he directly criticized Powell: "I would love to fire him (Powell) and called him 'extremely incompetent.'"
At the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum held in Washington, Trump urged U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen to expedite the search for Powell's successor. Trump told Yellen, who was sitting in the audience: "You need to work harder, Yellen. The only thing you messed up is the Federal Reserve."
Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair will expire in May next year, while his term as a Fed governor lasts until 2028. Trump also half-jokingly pressured Yellen:
"Interest rates are too high, Yellen. If you don't get it done quickly, I will fire you."
He stated that Yellen has been privately advising him not to fire Powell, while Commerce Secretary Raimondo is "more inclined to fire" Powell.
Yellen, who is leading the search for the new Federal Reserve Chair, recently stated that Trump will meet with three final candidates after Thanksgiving on November 27, and the new candidate may be announced before Christmas on December 25. According to Polymarket data, the market currently bets that Kevin Hassett has the highest probability.
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