November 19, 2025 · Highlights from Uweb Live Episode 206
Bitcoin has dropped from 125,000 to just over 90,000, the fear index has reached a new high since the pandemic, ancient whales have been caught, ETFs are continuously flowing out, and Wall Street is on Christmas break… all the negative news seems to have come together to crash the market.
While the entire market is asking, "Is the bull market really over?" Uweb invited Dr. Bear, who always appears at turning points, along with Teacher Wu Yaoshan, to thoroughly explain the three most painful questions of the moment with the calmest logic.
1. Is the four-year cycle really over? Answer: It's just a "leap month"
Dr. Bear started off straightforwardly:
"If this adjustment happened in May or June, everyone would just think it's a normal pullback. The reason everyone is panicking now is simply because it coincides with the psychological point of the 'four-year cycle.'"
He believes the three core reasons for this round of decline are not based on cyclical theory:
Multiple ancient OG whales have been judicially processed, and Bitcoin has been confiscated, triggering panic selling among similar holders (this is the fundamental reason for the recent surge in privacy coins);
The end-of-year Wall Street break + year-end accounting + tax payments will naturally lead to a significant contraction in liquidity, and Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to liquidity;
The normal pullback in the US stock market has been overly interpreted and brought into the crypto space, which is completely unnecessary.
"Assuming the four-year cycle really exists, it’s not a Newtonian law and can vary by a few months. The Earth takes a leap month to orbit the sun; Bitcoin has only gone through three or four cycles, so why can't it be delayed by two or three months?"
Teacher Wu added: East Asian KOLs shout "no cycle" but are frantically selling, and this consistent expectation may actually extend the cycle.
Dr. Bear's golden quote: "I've been in this for so many years, and I've never seen such a kind main force—overwhelmingly telling you 'the four-year cycle is over, run!' You'd wake up laughing from the dream."
Conclusion: The four-year cycle is most likely just a "leap month," and it’s not over yet.
2. Is the altcoin season really not coming? Answer: It will definitely come, it's just that valuations have finally become reasonable
For the past two years, everyone has been waiting for the old script of "Bitcoin breaking new highs → altcoin season," but what they got was a continuous decline in altcoins.
Dr. Bear hit the nail on the head:
"Altcoins have been in a bear market for a whole year! The leverage frenzy after Ethereum broke new highs in March 2024 directly led to the massive liquidations in October and November, clearing out almost all leveraged players holding altcoins. The chips are highly concentrated in the hands of the main force, the prices are extremely low, and the cost to pump is unprecedentedly low."
He believes the fundamental reason why altcoins couldn't rise before was that their valuations were too high, and the desire was too strong, making it impossible for the main force to push them up.
Now all three necessary conditions are met:
Valuation reconstruction is completely finished (there are many new spot listings on Binance below 50 million USD, the first time since 2019);
The lifeblood of exchanges is altcoin trading volume; Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have directed large funds to the US stock market, and exchanges are more anxious than anyone;
The October and November liquidations forcibly washed retail chips into the hands of the main force, which has both the ability and strong motivation to pump the market.
"Altcoin season will definitely come, likely in 2026; just be patient until the day the wealth effect forms."
How to buy? Dr. Bear directly provided the most hardcore coin selection framework:
Avoid the Ethereum ecosystem (innovation is not there, valuations rely entirely on speculation, making it impossible to estimate value).
Three types of altcoins worth buying the most:
Those with real income and ecosystem feedback (UNI, PUMP.fun) → the most stable, suitable for those looking to earn 3-5 times;
Binance spot + contracts, long-term market cap below 20-30 million USD (pure shell value) → the highest odds, limited downside;
Old altcoins that have gone through at least two cycles (NEO, QTUM, AEVO, ZEN) → they have never missed a bull market, and the bottom is extremely clear.
"If these old coins don't rise in a bull market, it means this is not a real bull market."
3. Comments on heavyweight projects in the inner circle (selected)
PUMP.fun: The most stable token in the Solana ecosystem, without a doubt, it will rise with Solana's rebound.
Trump Coin: Unprecedented scarcity, the first choice in the Solana ecosystem.
ZEN: Privacy is a necessity + Grayscale's entire family of products, strongly optimistic, with several times of potential.
UNI: The most stable, but don’t expect the crazy gains from the last round; the bottom can be seen as high as 4.5-5 USD.
APT: Much better value than SUI, with severe trading pair inversion.
FET > WLD: Both are old AI, FET is fully unlocked, while WLD still has unlocking + legal risks.
Spicy Strips (LTC): Too stable, but it needs a bloodbath first; only after that can it surge.
Meme coins on Binance below 20 million: You can buy with your eyes closed, limited downside, and can start rising from 10 times.
Dr. Bear concluded with this:
"Bitcoin is now over 90,000, and the vast majority of people have a cost below 100,000, so they can sell easily without losing. The real end of a bull market is when you can't sell at all. The main force is letting you sell so comfortably now? It means the goods are not out yet."
The altcoin season is not not coming; it has just finally reached a valuation that allows the main force to make big profits.
Just be patient, and we’ll see in 2026.
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