Key Points:
BTC has broken below the MVRV mean band, making $75,700 the next major downside target.
As Wall Street analysts predict a 40% price rebound by the end of the year, BTC whales are accelerating their purchases.
BTC may be preparing for a deeper correction after breaking below a key long-term support level that has helped stabilize prices since 2023.
BTC support stems from the MVRV extreme deviation band, a set of technical indicators that indicate whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued relative to the purchase price of most holders.
The most important is the mean band (yellow), which is seen as BTC's "fair value." When BTC trades above it, the market is generally considered healthy. When it falls below, the market often shows weakness.
Last week, BTC fell below the mean band level for the first time since the end of 2022.
In previous cycles, once BTC lost this "fair value" line, the price typically continued to decline to the -0.5σ (cyan) band.
As of Tuesday, the cyan band aligns with the $75,700 price level, down about 18% from the current price, and has now become BTC's next downside target.
If it breaks below the cyan band, it could accelerate a wave of selling, pushing the price further toward the -1σ band (blue) at around $52,800, similar to what occurred during the bear markets of 2022, 2021, and 2018.
This bearish outlook comes as BTC has retraced 30% from its historical high of about $126,300, completely erasing this year's gains and putting its ETF investors in a loss for the first time.
On-chain data shows that BTC whale investors have been steadily accumulating over the past month, highlighting their strong confidence in a market recovery.
This has led some analysts, including Bitwise Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, to suggest that the BTC bottom is near.
Matt Hougan stated, "I think this is a great buying opportunity for long-term investors."
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee predicts that BTC will reach a new all-time high by the end of the year, which implies at least a 40% rebound from current price levels.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) whales turn to buying amid "extreme fear"
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) chart shows $75K as a bottom, but analysts predict a 40% rally before the end of 2025”
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