The basis between Bitcoin futures and spot has fallen into negative territory, marking a significant shift in trader sentiment towards risk aversion. Futures prices have dipped below spot prices for the first time since March, eliminating the premium that typically reflects strong leverage demand.
This shift to a futures discount phase indicates that BTC traders are increasingly unwilling to take on risk, opting for a more conservative pricing strategy regarding BTC's short-term outlook.
Key points:
The Bitcoin futures-spot basis turning negative suggests that traders are becoming cautious and are reducing their risk exposure.
A surge in internal exchange fund flows has historically indicated that BTC will face volatility and liquidity pressure.
Negative basis typically occurs during position liquidation periods or when the market is preparing for volatility. BTC is currently trading in the "basis zone," which is usually associated with strong selling pressure or reduced risk exposure. Both the 7-day and 30-day moving averages are trending downward, further confirming the bearish sentiment in the futures market.
However, historical patterns complicate the situation. Analysts point out that since August 2023, every instance of the 7-day SMA turning negative has closely coincided with the bottom formation areas of bull market phases. If the market has not fully transitioned into a bear cycle, this signal could once again indicate an early recovery.
If current conditions resemble those of January 2022, this signal could suggest the beginning of a deeper decline. A return of the basis to above the 0%-0.5% range would be the first clear sign of restored market confidence.
Data also shows that the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio has reset to around 0.3, indicating that the previously overheated leverage state from the second to third quarter has finally cooled down. A lower ratio reflects a decrease in forced liquidation risk and a healthy improvement in the futures market structure.
If bullish momentum returns to the market, this healthier leverage environment could serve as a positive catalyst, providing traders with the space to take on risk again and avoiding the market vulnerabilities seen earlier this year.
Cryptocurrency analyst Pelin Ay notes that internal fund flow data from exchanges further supports the current bearish narrative. This metric measures the transfer volume of BTC between internal wallets on exchanges, typically used for operational purposes or liquidity adjustments. While it does not directly reflect selling behavior, its sharp rise often coincides with periods of market turmoil and significant moves by large investors.
From late 2024 to early 2025, the market experienced a massive peak in internal transfers during a rapid price increase, followed by a significant pullback. This pattern reoccurred in May-June 2025 when BTC surged from $60,000 to $90,000, confirming the correlation between this metric and bullish trends.
Now, this metric has surged again, far exceeding its usual range of 5-10 in early November. This abnormal peak closely aligns with BTC's sharp decline from over $110,000 to $95,000. Historical data analysis shows that such spikes typically reflect market liquidity pressure, increased volatility, and price stress.
Considering multiple factors such as the negative basis, increased internal flows, and accelerated downward momentum, the Bitcoin market seems poised to continue exploring price bottom ranges.
Related: Short-term Bitcoin holders panic sell 148,000 BTC, analysts expect BTC to drop below $90,000.
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Rare Bitcoin (BTC) Futures Signal Could Catch Traders Off Guard: Is a Bottom Forming?”
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