As a cryptographer and cypherpunk cited in the Bitcoin white paper, Adam Back stated that Bitcoin is unlikely to face a substantial threat from quantum computing in the next two to four decades.

On November 15, Back responded to a user's question about the risks to Bitcoin on the X platform, writing, "There probably won't be a problem for 20 to 40 years." He also added that there are already post-quantum cryptography standards approved by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and Bitcoin can implement relevant upgrades "long before cryptographically significant quantum computers appear."

The discussion was sparked by a user posting a video of Canadian-American venture capitalist and entrepreneur Chamath Palihapitiya, who predicted that the quantum threat to Bitcoin could become a reality within two to five years. He pointed out that quantum computers would need about 8,000 qubits to break the SHA-256 encryption standard that Bitcoin relies on.

In an interview with Cointelegraph in mid-April this year, the cypherpunk had stated that the pressure from quantum computing might reveal whether the pseudonymous founder of blockchain, Satoshi Nakamoto, is still alive. Back explained that quantum computing could put the Bitcoin held by Nakamoto at risk of theft, forcing him to move assets to a new address to avoid losing control over the tokens.

Current quantum computers are either too noisy to support breaking encryption or are far from the necessary scale. For example, the neutral atom array at Caltech—currently the most qubits in physics—has up to 6,100 physical qubits but still cannot break RSA-2048, even though it theoretically requires only about 4,000 logical qubits to do so.

The reason is that these 4,000 qubits are just an idealized model assuming perfect local qubits, without considering the noise present in the real world. In short, 4,000 qubits refer to the number needed to run the Beauregard version of Shor's algorithm to break RSA-2048 in a fault-free environment, and these qubits are known as logical qubits.

Ion trap systems with lower error rates, such as Quantinuum's Helios, have achieved 98 physical qubits, corresponding to 48 error-corrected logical qubits—meaning it takes two physical qubits to yield one usable logical qubit. In the realm of universal gate-type quantum computers, Atom Computing has reached 1,180 qubits, becoming the first system to break the 1,000 qubit barrier by the end of 2023.

Currently, existing quantum computers are still far from threatening mainstream encryption standards. However, experts disagree on how long it will take to close this gap; some believe progress will be linear, while others expect breakthrough advancements as the field continues to attract significant investment.

While it is unlikely that a quantum computer capable of breaking modern encryption systems will emerge in the near future, it is very likely to happen eventually, posing a real threat. "Collect first, decrypt later" is one attack method, where attackers first gather data and store it, waiting for future technology to mature before decrypting it.

This issue will not affect Bitcoin, as it employs cryptographic methods to ensure that only legitimate owners can access their assets. As long as Bitcoin can timely deploy quantum-resistant security mechanisms, its security can be assured.

However, such attacks would impact all groups relying on encryption to protect information over the long term. If dissidents in a repressive state rely on encryption to protect their data, they hope that this data will remain secure for 10, 15, 20 years, or even longer.

Gianluca Di Bella, a smart contract researcher focused on zero-knowledge proofs, recently told Cointelegraph, "We should migrate to post-quantum cryptography standards now." He noted that practical commercial-level quantum computing may still take 10 or 15 years, but warned that "large institutions like Microsoft or Google may come up with solutions in a few years."

Related: Singapore warns that unregulated stablecoins may pose systemic risks as new regulations are about to be introduced.

Original article: “Adam Back: Bitcoin (BTC) has no quantum risk in the next 20 to 40 years”

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。