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Waking up, Bitcoin is once again being pressed below 100K. At four in the morning, it dropped directly to 98K, as if someone pulled the covers off in the middle of the night and slapped you. What's even more frustrating is that this isn't the bottom yet…

Last night, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively plummeted, with the Nasdaq face-planting down 2.29%, and tech stocks being pressed down. Do you think this is the end? Don't be foolish; the decline in U.S. stocks has just begun to warm up.

As soon as U.S. stocks start to decline, high-risk assets like Bitcoin will inevitably be among the first to be thrown out. Those people on Wall Street run faster than anyone else; in the past month or two, ETF funds have been flowing out like a broken faucet—doesn't that seem obvious enough?

The lack of macro data has given the hawks a perfect opportunity to jump up and down, with the probability of a rate cut in December being torn down from 90% to 50%, which directly pressed market sentiment down. U.S. stocks have risen too much and need to correct, dragging the entire crypto market down with them.

Pessimism is the most disgusting thing; it consumes itself, falling more and more in fear, and the more it fears, the more it falls, creating a closed-loop chain of panic in the entire market. If new funds don't come in to prop things up, this broken situation in the crypto market can't be turned around.

A couple of days ago, I mentioned in my analysis not to dream that the U.S. government shutdown ending would bring you a bull market redemption. At most, it would just be a short-term rebound, like a car going downhill hitting the brakes; it might slow you down a bit, but the direction is still down.

Back to the market, Bitcoin briefly broke below 98K last night. The biggest resistance above is now stuck between 102K and 102.4K. If it can't push back up, then the range from 98K to 88.2K has already opened half the door waiting for you.

The only position in this range that can still be called a bottom is 94.2K, which is a major Fibonacci retracement level from the low of 74.4K on April 7 to the high of 126.2K in October.

If even 94.2K is broken, then the only significant support left below is 88.2K. Don't even think about trying to catch the bottom at those smaller levels; the long-term main strategy now is to short at highs.

Ethereum is just as miserable, dropping from a high of 3500 to around 3230 now, with a clear downward trend. Recently, the daily charts have been all bearish candles, but there was a slight rebound in the last few hours; that little upper shadow is pitifully short, indicating that the bears are just catching their breath, not disappearing.

Today's biggest pressure for Ethereum is between 3330-3380. If it can't get above 3440, the 800-point drop range from 3300 to 2520 could open up at any time. Within that range, 2880 is a hard point; once it breaks, if it goes below 2800, it will likely head straight for 2112…

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 103700

First Resistance Level: 100700

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 98000

Second Support Level: 95600

Currently, the 98K lower shadow area is the key short-term support. If 98K is broken again, the space below will continue to open up, so be careful of further declines.
The range from 100K to 100.7K constitutes strong resistance; only after breaking through can we hope to regain 100K.

The daily RSI shows a bullish divergence; if this divergence isn't broken, there is a chance for a small rebound. However, the selling pressure isn't clean yet, so don't treat the bearish risk as if it hasn't happened.

The first support at 98K is the upper edge of the range from February 7 to February 21, and it is the most important short-term support. The second support at 95.6K is the lower edge of the same range. While 98K is a temporary low, it is by no means the bottom. If 98K is lost, we can look down to 95K, and below that is the CME gap at 92K.

The first resistance at 100.7K is the low from June 22, and the second resistance at 103.7K is the upper edge of the range from November 7. Currently, the psychological barrier of 100K has been lost; if bulls want to come back, their first task is to reclaim 100K.

Before the market stabilizes, don't recklessly catch falling knives. 100K itself is a pressure point; rebounding to the resistance level can easily lead to another N-shaped drop. Since 100K has been broken again, the bears' advantage has increased; this is a fact.

Although there is a bullish divergence on the daily chart, you can try for a super short-term rebound, but don't fantasize about a trend reversal. In terms of operations, maintain a bearish mindset; shorting on rebounds is the more stable short-term strategy.

11.14 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in the 100700-101500 range, Target: Above 98000

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just look at a few market updates and jump to conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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