The U.S. government has restarted, marking the end of the biggest negative impact, with inflation and national debt becoming key factors for Bitcoin liquidity. The U.S. Senate has passed a short-term funding bill intended to finance government agencies until January 30, 2026, which has now been submitted to the House of Representatives for approval.
This bill will end a 41-day government shutdown, allowing the suspended statistical agencies to resume operations and normalizing national debt auctions. It will restart the official data releases that support interest rate expectations and the value of the dollar, while inflation data and national debt issuance will once again become core variables affecting Bitcoin's price movements.
For cryptocurrencies, the core value of the government restart lies in restoring the supply of macro data, returning national debt issuance to a predictable rhythm, and clarifying the direction of short-term real interest rates. These factors directly influence Bitcoin's market risk appetite and the flow of spot ETF funds.
During the shutdown, key data releases from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics were paused. Now, the data calendar is clear: the October CPI and real income data will be released on November 13, PPI on the 14th, and the import and export price index on the 18th. This data will shift the market focus back from fiscal news to inflation and the labor market, thereby adjusting interest rate bets and the dollar's trajectory.
For Bitcoin, the implied real interest rate of 10-year TIPS is a key indicator, currently at 1.83%, higher than mid-year levels.
If the CPI data is moderate, real interest rates are expected to fall, leading to a looser financial environment that would benefit risk assets. This could also tighten ETF spreads and improve the depth of the cryptocurrency secondary market. Currently, the depth of the cryptocurrency order book has significantly improved compared to 2022-2023, with lower slippage on large trades, allowing macro-driven capital flows to transmit more smoothly to prices.
The national debt supply plan is clear: quarterly refinancing will issue a total of $125 billion in 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds, with an additional $26.8 billion in financing, with auctions taking place in phases from Monday to Thursday.
The Treasury has made it clear that it will maintain stable bond coupon rates over the next few quarters, flexibly adjusting funds through Treasury bills and conducting repurchase operations to support the market. This will reduce short-term premium volatility, making CPI the core influencing factor for interest rate trends.
As of November 7, the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance reached $943 billion, higher than the same period in 2024, providing a buffer for the normalization of auctions.
Currently, the nominal yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is about 4.1%, and the interaction between CPI data and national debt issuance will dominate interest rate trends this week.
Additionally, the flow of spot Bitcoin ETF funds remains an important variable, having seen record inflows in early October, while early November saw a shift to net outflows in U.S. regional funds.
In the next 1-2 weeks, Bitcoin liquidity will face three major paths:
If CPI meets expectations and national debt refinancing goes smoothly, real interest rates may fall to 1.6%-1.7%, the dollar may weaken, and ETFs could see slight net inflows;
If CPI remains high and the Treasury issues more Treasury bills, real interest rates may exceed 1.9%, leading to a restart of ETF outflows and a defensive trend in cryptocurrencies;
If House approval is obstructed or CPI data is abnormal, capital flows may fluctuate, with institutions closely monitoring signals from national debt issuance and repurchase plans.
Currently, with high real interest rates, Bitcoin prices will react to inflation data and the dollar's movements.
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