Crypto markets are experiencing a tentative recovery after last week's broad financial market decline, though analysts caution the rebound may be short-lived as significant macroeconomic risks persist.
The recent bounce followed a Senate vote last Sunday advancing a bill to reopen the U.S. government, sparking synchronized gains across crypto, gold, and equities.
Market sentiment reflects this optimism, with users of prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, assigning a 96% chance to the shutdown ending before November 15.
However, this development is a "short-term reprieve that avoids holiday disruptions," analysts at Singapore-based trading desk QCP Capital wrote in a Wednesday note. They described it as a "textbook case of 'kick-the-can' policymaking that removes immediate tail risks but doesn't resolve the structural issue."
The recovery remains fragile amid ongoing concerns, including the government shutdown, U.S.-China tariff tensions, and credit market volatility.
"Bitcoin's dip on Tuesday to $103,000 stems from broader risk-off sentiment, including cooling in the AI trade and profit-taking after recent highs," Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told Decrypt.
What’s next?
Though official data releases remain paused due to the shutdown, private data has maintained the Federal Reserve's "data-driven policy-making" narrative, QCP analysts highlighted. Thursday's inflation data is particularly critical for setting market tone through year-end.
"Expect higher intraday volatility," Rachel Lin, CEO and Co-Founder of SynFutures, told Decrypt. "Price will be driven by a tug-of-war between continued OTC/institutional accumulation and headline-driven liquidity shocks."
Despite near-term uncertainty, "potential Fed cuts and resilient corporate earnings should support risk sentiment and Bitcoin into year-end," QCP analysts noted.
On Myriad, users place a 28% chance on there being two Fed rate cut changes in 2025.
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