This article is reprinted with permission from "Talking Outside the Box," and the copyright belongs to the original author.
In recent series of articles, we have revisited several macro-level data points, such as the DXY and Global M2 discussed in the October 9 article, QT and QE in the October 15 article, the scale of dollar debt and U.S. Treasury yields in the October 17 article, the continued discussion of the dollar index and Bitcoin trends in the October 22 article, and further exploration of the QT/QE topic in the November 3 article… and so on.
From the perspective of macro data over a long cycle, we have also expressed a somewhat subjective guess in several previous articles: the fourth quarter of this year (which may be pushed to the first quarter of next year) could be the last phase opportunity of this bull market, and the market may face a relatively deep adjustment or a phase bear market in the third/fourth quarter of 2026.
Since it is a public expression of my views and guesses, naturally, some will agree, while others will scoff. Although I read all the comments behind the scenes, I won't really refute others just because they have different opinions; I don't particularly enjoy arguing with others. As I mentioned in previous articles: different people often have different perspectives on issues, and thus the results may also differ. My personal views, thoughts, and strategies, whether right or wrong, ultimately only need to be accountable for my own results (positions).
Recently, the market seems a bit dull. Although many partners are watching old coins like FIL, ICP, and UNI surge, there seems to be no excitement inside. For example, FIL rose from $1.3 to $3.5 in just two days (November 7 - November 8), but some partners can only continue to smile politely when looking at their historical positions with a cost of over $100 for FIL that they have held for several years.
A few days ago, a partner commented that the market seems to offer opportunities to make money every day, but these opportunities seem to always be out of reach. If they chase the highs, they worry about being deceived again; if they don't chase, they feel distressed watching the continuous bullish candles. They spend every day in this sense of loss and entanglement, feeling exhausted.
In my view, there is nothing to be entangled about. The core of this issue often lies not in the market but in your personal position management. The market fluctuates 7x24 hours, and your mind cannot maintain synchronized fluctuations 7x24 hours. Therefore, the main focus should be on your position management, establishing a set of execution discipline that allows you to "sleep well without looking at K-line prices," and then just enjoy your life—play, eat, and sleep as needed.
For most people, reasonable position management can be summarized in a few words: time, grading, execution.
1) About Time
We discussed this issue in the October 22 article, as shown in the figure below.
In other words, you need to clarify which category you belong to among Position Trader, Day Trader, Swing Trader, and Investor. This is an important step we must consider when participating in the market. Of course, if you don't know which category suits you and don't agree with our views, that's fine. I believe that after experiencing a cycle of losses, you will probably know in the next cycle.
The issue of time itself will provide you with answers.
2) About Grading
Different time perspectives require different proportions of grading (division or allocation) for positions. For example, in my 2024 e-book "Blockchain Methodology," I mentioned: if you have a high-risk tolerance, you can adopt the principle of 2:2:4:1:1, meaning 20% of your position in Bitcoin, 20% in Ethereum, 50% in altcoins, 10% in MemeCoin, and 10% in cash that should not be touched (to cope with extreme black swan events)… and so on, as shown in the figure below.
Of course, the above is just a thought we provided last year. The market is changing, and your thinking should also be reconsidered based on your actual situation. For example, you can continue to think of other scenarios. Here are a few more examples:
If you still believe in potential opportunities before the end of this year (or the first quarter of next year), then your position grading may not need to retain too much cash liquidity (U), and you can continue to seize the opportunities you believe in, but you should also formulate a Plan B (what is your response if you are wrong).
If you are more conservative and believe that a bear market may come next year, then your position grading should retain at least 30% cash liquidity.
If you have achieved good returns over the past two years but are also worried that the market may face a deep adjustment next year, then you should consider taking profits in batches, for example, retaining 70% (or even more) cash to patiently wait for new opportunities next year.
3) About Execution
Sometimes, seeing something does not mean knowing it; knowing it does not mean being able to do it; doing it does not mean doing it well. Whether you are a Position Trader or a Swing Trader, what we are competing with others is not just the strength of capital (after all, it is difficult to directly compare capital strength; for example, some whales losing tens of millions of dollars may just be pocket change for them, while you losing hundreds of thousands of RMB could be all your savings from years of work). We should focus more on horizontal comparisons, that is, among retail investors, who has better execution ability, who can strictly adhere to their trading discipline, and who has a better chance of making long-term money in this volatile market.
In short, as we discussed in last year's e-book "Blockchain Methodology": different people may have different dimensions regarding time. Try to find a time frame that suits you, and develop your grading plan and execution strategy. If you are very optimistic about the future of the crypto industry and plan to invest long-term, what you may need is patience and strict trading discipline. If you only hope to speculate during the bull market, then don't just think about making big money; also consider how to respond if you lose money. It is best to find some indicators (such as MACD, Fibonacci, etc.) that can directly assist you in making judgments and strictly implement profit-taking and stop-loss plans. Also, if you don't have a high probability of certainty, don't easily leverage yourself.
A few days ago, a partner in the comments asked: Will the traditional four-year bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin really be broken? Could this bull market last longer?
Recently, I often browse social media in my spare time and find that opinions online seem quite divided. Some KOLs have completely turned bearish, while others continue to say that a bigger bull market has just begun.
In my view, most people seem to overcomplicate the issue of bull-bear cycles. Continuing with BTC, since the official approval of ETFs in this cycle, the increasing deep participation of institutions, and the establishment of reserve laws in countries like the U.S., BTC has completely transformed into a macro asset, becoming increasingly intertwined with macroeconomic cycles.
Of course, compared to traditional financial markets like stocks and gold, Bitcoin (or the crypto market represented by Bitcoin) still belongs to a category of extremely high-risk assets. Bitcoin can still enjoy the remaining liquidity, speculative liquidity, and hedging liquidity of these markets.
However, I believe that as time goes on, this situation will continue to change. From my observations, especially since this year, traditional Bitcoin whales (early investors/old players) seem to be systematically exiting. Moreover, these whales, who have weathered various exchange collapses, hacker attacks, multiple bans and crackdowns from some countries, several rounds of devastating bear markets, the COVID-19 pandemic, various regulatory uncertainties, and countless mainstream media reports labeling Bitcoin as a scam over the past decade, can finally choose to exit their positions and retire without disrupting the overall market structure due to the approval of ETFs, the entry of institutions, and some national-level "endorsements" (such as the "Genius Act" and "Clarity Act"). The market has finally matured to the point where early whales can exit large positions without causing widespread chaos.
In fact, we can also see from past large sell-off events that even the concentrated sell-off of $3 billion by the German government in July 2024 only caused BTC to drop from $62,000 to $53,000 (a 14% drop), which was quickly absorbed by ETF funds/institutional funds. Such a situation was unimaginable in previous bull markets. Imagine if $3 billion worth of Bitcoin had been sold in 2018; the liquidity at that time might not have been able to withstand it (it was estimated that a $1 billion sell-off could immediately halve the market), but now it can.
Therefore, if you seriously consider the special period we are in and think from a longer-term perspective, all the low emotions you see in the current market should actually be viewed positively. Bitcoin has finally matured and possesses its own liquidity and market depth. Traditional whales have finally found the perfect opportunity to exit, but their exit does not mean the market is failing; rather, it can prove one point: after more than a decade of accumulation, Bitcoin is truly on the verge of winning. We may currently be at the beginning of a new transformative era, with old whales continuously exiting and new buyers (represented by institutions as new long-term investors) starting to enter. The ownership (pricing power) of Bitcoin is continuously shifting from visionary and patient ancient whales to institutions, and Bitcoin is beginning to experience a new lifecycle.
Of course, while this may seem like a good time, it may not necessarily be "friendly" for most retail investors, as they will begin to face more professional institutional players rather than long-term holders and idealists of Bitcoin. However, from a neutral perspective, the current changes in underlying logic cannot be evaluated as good or bad; we are merely experiencing a necessary evolution in Bitcoin's lifecycle, and we happen to be at this important time node.
Returning to the topic of bull-bear cycles. Yes, Bitcoin still seems to be continuing the existing pattern of the four-year bull-bear cycle. There are many related indicators online guiding us to operate based on this cyclical pattern. However, even if Bitcoin continues to strictly follow the four-year cycle, or if the existing four-year bull-bear cycle is extended, does this really matter for your positions and operations?
Most of the old retail investors around me have experienced three rounds of bull-bear cycles:
The first complete bull-bear cycle lasted from January 2015 to December 2018, approximately four years (around 1430 days).
The second complete bull-bear cycle lasted from December 2018 to November 2022, also around four years (around 1430 days).
The third round (this round) has lasted from November 2022 to today (November 12, 2025), which is almost 1,100 days.
So let me ask: with such clear and straightforward cycles, have you really made a lot of money by now? Starting from now, do you really know what to do in the next 330 days?
Simply studying the four-year cycle is not useful; what can you do by maintaining the existing four-year bull-bear cycle? What if the existing four-year cycle is extended? The key to thinking about these issues still lies in the position management we mentioned above: what is your time dimension? What is your grading plan? What is your execution strategy? In other words, as long as we reasonably plan our trades and strictly execute our trading plans, it is not very meaningful to be entangled in whether the four-year bull-bear cycle will still be effective.
It's like in K-lines; some resistance levels are sometimes meant to be broken, while some support levels are sometimes meant to be breached. The cycle of Bitcoin no longer solely depends on Bitcoin itself (such as halving time, mining costs, etc.), but will change with the fluctuations of the macroeconomic cycle.
Here, let's continue to share two macro data points: the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) and the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI).
The former reflects the overall health of the U.S. manufacturing sector and is seen as a leading indicator of economic growth and inflation. Generally, a PMI above 50 indicates manufacturing expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The latter is mainly used to predict the economic direction of the U.S. in the next 3 to 6 months.
Let's directly compare these two macro indicators with the trend of BTC, as shown in the figure below.
From the above figure, it is not difficult to see that on a large cycle level, when the PMI (yellow line in the figure) begins to rise, indicating that the U.S. economy is recovering, Bitcoin (purple line in the figure) often experiences a noticeable phase of increase in the following months. Conversely, when the leading economic indicator (black line in the figure) turns downward and the PMI falls below 50, Bitcoin's price usually faces a phase of deep adjustment or enters a bear market a few months later.
From the latest chart, the PMI value released in October this year is 48.7, which seems to be lower than market expectations. If it cannot quickly rebound above 49 in the next three months, the risk of U.S. recovery expectations may significantly increase, and BTC may continue to experience high volatility or even a pullback.
Based on this, we can draw a large-scale guess:
The upcoming macro cycle may last longer than any previous cycle. We may have the opportunity to see Bitcoin above $150,000 next year (2026) and perhaps around $50,000, but for long-term investment, Bitcoin's peak will definitely not stay at $100,000 or $150,000. We may need to wait longer to see its peak price.
However, I also know that most people are not interested in this kind of long-term "nonsense." So here, we can make some short-term guesses based on the above macro indicators:
1) If the LEI indicator can maintain an overall upward trend in the next three months, but the PMI continues to stay within the current range and cannot break above 50, then during this period, Bitcoin will likely continue to maintain its current high volatility state, with $120,000-$130,000 remaining an important resistance level and support around $80,000-$90,000.
2) If the LEI indicator can maintain an overall upward trend before (including) the first quarter of 2026, and the PMI can break above 50, then macro risk assets like Bitcoin will likely strengthen again, giving us the opportunity to see Bitcoin above $120,000, or even $150,000.
3) If the LEI continues to show negative growth and the PMI falls below 45 (similar to June 2022), then we should prepare to welcome a bear market next year, meaning BTC may enter a bear market (a significant adjustment) 1-2 quarters earlier. In extreme cases, we might see Bitcoin at $50,000-$60,000 as early as the second quarter of 2026.
Of course, the above is merely a guess based on the macro data of PMI and LEI. Regardless of whether we consider it from a macro perspective, historical cyclical patterns, or various technical indicators… any guesses or predictions are merely "hypotheses" or "probabilistic" possible outcomes from different subjective angles. History may repeat itself, may just rhyme, or may be directly broken; no one can always predict future market trends with 100% accuracy.
If you believe that the four-year bull-bear cycle will still be effective, then theoretically, we are now in the bull tail of this cycle. The more we are at this point, the more we need to balance opportunities and risks. If you think the four-year cycle will be extended, then it depends on your own risk tolerance. You can continue to hold the Bitcoin you bought at a cost of $100,000 and patiently wait for $150,000, $200,000, or even $300,000, or you can be a bit more flexible—keeping a portion of your position that you will never sell for the long term, while planning to take profits in batches and patiently waiting for new pullback opportunities to buy and accumulate more (for example, in the second half of 2026). If you believe that this circle/industry has completely lost its future and hope, and still think, as some do, that Bitcoin is a conspiracy and scam from the U.S., then it might be better for you to resist the U.S. and choose to leave this field before you gamble away your entire fortune.
Since this is a long-term game about investment/speculation, never be too clever for your own good. Never directly copy or adopt others' ideas; create your own ideas. Being able to earn long-term money and make money over the long term is more important than what others think or tell you is "correct."
In summary, we still insist that the bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin will not be "broken," but with the silent exit of old whales and the shining appearance of new institutional players, the market may undergo further "institutionalization," meaning that cyclical patterns may deform and extend.
This will directly bring several noticeable changes to Bitcoin, including:
The duration of the bull market will be longer; for example, the original 12-month bull market may be extended to 18 months (or even longer, as institutional rotations require more time).
The depth (magnitude) of the bear market may deform (relatively converge); for example, the original depth of over 75% may become 60% (or even lower, as ETFs and institutional funds will create a bottoming effect).
Correspondingly, it will become increasingly difficult for retail investors to make money because of the added professionalism of institutions, along with the continued decrease in Bitcoin's volatility, which will naturally lead to a decline in the profit-making effect for retail investors.
The real question we should be concerned about is not whether the so-called "four-year bull-bear cycle will be extended," but rather whether you are currently prepared to face a potentially longer, slower, and more professional institutional bull market.
The core script of this cycle's beginning is: old giants exit, new institutions enter, and retail investors continue to buy. Are you really fully prepared?
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs see $1.7 billion outflow, but whale buying mitigates price impact.
Original: “A Necessary Evolution in Its Lifecycle: Will Bitcoin's (BTC) Four-Year Cycle Extend?”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
