Key Points:
The third wave expansion of Bitcoin may drive the price to between $200,000 and $240,000.
Despite a lackluster futures market activity in the fourth quarter, the long-term structure remains bullish.
The recovery of the U.S. economy and risk appetite sentiment may drive the next surge in Bitcoin.
The long-term price structure of Bitcoin (BTC) shows new strong momentum, with analysts expecting the next phase of its parabolic expansion. According to market analyst Gert Van Lagen, Bitcoin has rebounded again from its 40-week simple moving average (SMA).
Van Lagen stated that the corrective second wave phase seems to be nearing completion, with the third wave expansion on the horizon. The completion of the pattern could push the BTC price to between $200,000 and $240,000 in the coming months.
Van Lagen's "stair-step" Elliott wave model indicates that Bitcoin forms a solid foundation before each major breakout. The same setup in 2019 and 2023 before steep rises suggests that the current consolidation may serve as a launchpad for the next parabolic rise.
Crypto trader Jelle shares the same view. He noted that Bitcoin is currently facing resistance near the midpoint of its long-term ascending channel. Once this level is broken, Jelle believes the upper channel line around $350,000 will unleash strong upward potential.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic researcher Sminston With wrote that broader economic conditions may soon favor risk assets like Bitcoin.
With noted that the U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a measure of business activity, has been below 50 for nearly three years, marking the longest economic slowdown on record since 1948. Historically, such prolonged stagnation is often followed by a strong recovery as the business cycle rebounds.
With believes that this recovery or "mean reversion" typically attracts investors back to high-risk assets, laying the groundwork for an upcoming risk appetite environment. Therefore, Bitcoin, as a high-growth and speculative asset, could become one of the main beneficiaries once market confidence is restored.
While the long-term structure remains bullish, Bitcoin's short-term price movements continue to seek confirmation. On Tuesday, BTC filled the CME gap formed over the weekend and is now attempting to establish higher support above $105,000.
According to Glassnode, open interest in futures declined after the liquidation event on October 10, and derivative activity has slowed across exchanges. The average order size for BTC futures has also significantly reduced, reflecting decreased participation from large whales and increased influence from small retail traders.
However, on-chain liquidation patterns may be signaling a bullish reversal. Data from Hyblock Capital indicates that the long liquidation cluster observed around $100,000 on November 4 and Friday suggests a local mean reversion before a slight recovery.
If the recent liquidation pockets around the CME gap lead to another recovery, Bitcoin may form a bullish reversal pivot above $105,000, reinforcing the broader upward trend narrative described by analysts.
Related: Willy Woo proposes quantum threat response: Store Bitcoin (BTC) in SegWit wallets for 7 years
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