Key Points:
XRP surged 12% to $2.53 following news of Trump's stimulus plan.
Profit-taking by long-term holders may slow the price recovery.
Resistance in the $2.60-$2.80 range will pose a significant obstacle for XRP prices.
XRP prices rose strongly by 12% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced $2,000 stimulus checks for most Americans. The current trading price is close to $2.53, but a continued climb towards $3 may be constrained by accelerated profit-taking from investors and strong resistance above.
XRP’s potential to stage a sustained rally this week is in question as long-term holders (LTHs) — those who have held XRP for more than 155 days — ramp up profit-taking.
Glassnode noted, "Previous waves of profit-taking actually occurred in sync with price increases, as long-term holders locked in significant gains during this period."
"Unlike previous waves of profit-taking that accompanied price increases, since the end of September, profit-taking volume (7-day moving average) has surged from $65 million per day to $220 million, an increase of 240%," Glassnode researchers wrote.
This profit-taking coincided with XRP's price decline from $3.09 to $2.30, a drop of 25%.
This situation aligns with the phenomenon of large whales continuing to sell off, as large holders noticeably intensified their selling activity when XRP prices fell below $3.
Santiment's supply distribution indicator shows that whales holding between 1 million to 10 million XRP tokens have offloaded another 500,000 tokens in the past 48 hours.
These entities currently hold about 6.23 billion XRP, a significant decrease from approximately 7 billion in early September.
However, after a total sell-off of $650 million, the outflow from whale wallets has begun to ease, suggesting that XRP may be forming a potential bottom.
This sign could boost XRP's price performance in the coming weeks, especially when combined with rising risk appetite, primarily driven by the positive stimulus that the U.S. government may reopen this week.
The XRP/USD trading pair is currently in a downtrend, oscillating within a descending parallel channel, as shown in the chart below.
The current price is testing the key resistance level of $2.60, which is the confluence area of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day simple moving average.
If this key barrier can be broken, it would significantly increase the likelihood of XRP launching an attack towards the upper boundary of the descending channel at $2.80 (100-day simple moving average).
Market bulls need to effectively break through this resistance level to make a push towards the $3 price level, thereby having a chance to challenge the 7-year high of $3.66.
Glassnode's distribution heatmap shows a significant supply concentration near $2.80 (100-day simple moving average), with approximately 1.86 billion XRP bought by investors at this price level, which could pose a substantial obstacle to any price recovery.
Technical analyst ChartNerd pointed out on X platform: "XRP's next target is to break through the $2.70 resistance level," he further added:
According to Cointelegraph, if XRP can break through the 50-day simple moving average ($2.63) and subsequently break the descending trend line at $2.80, it will clearly indicate stable demand at lower levels, which is favorable for driving the price towards the psychological barrier of $3 for a strong rebound.
Related: CryptoQuant: Evernorth's unrealized losses in XRP expose increasing pressure on DATs
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “XRP Profit-Taking Signals Weakness: Will It Delay Recovery to $3?”
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