Bitcoin opened strongly this week, rebounding back above $106,500, with market sentiment primarily driven by expectations of the U.S. government restarting.
Bitcoin rebounded alongside risk assets as the market anticipates the U.S. government will end its record shutdown this week.
U.S. inflation data may return, providing important references for the Federal Reserve's future policies.
U.S. President Trump promised to distribute $2,000 to most Americans, reigniting enthusiasm for pandemic-era stimulus.
Bitcoin derivatives traders remain cautious, with limited interest in betting on new highs.
In 2025, Bitcoin whales continue to be a focal point in the market, consistently acting as sellers.
Bitcoin finally brought hope to bulls at the weekly close, finishing above $104,500.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView also confirmed that BTC/USD maintained a key nearby support trend line—its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA).
What a weekly candle close. Are we ready for a green week on the markets?
“Watch the 4-hour trends of $GOLD and $BTC,” trader Skew told followers in his latest X post.
The U.S. government shutdown marks a key event in market sentiment, affecting the cryptocurrency and broader risk asset landscape.
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass indicates that even relatively small BTC price fluctuations have significant liquidity at risk. Meanwhile, 24-hour cross-cryptocurrency liquidations were nearing $350 million at the time of writing.
When discussing support and resistance levels, trader CrypNuevo has a clear boundary in mind.
“Another convergence point is the short-term liquidation cluster at $105,500. Prices may target that area,” he wrote in an X thread.
There remains a significant amount of cautious sentiment, with many market participants warning that a rise to near the local high of $107,000 could easily reverse.
$BTC so far so good. I like the fact that volume is dropping & we just retested the long-term weekly uptrend. https://t.co/VKHP4IcWLn pic.twitter.com/dKfgrvH3ci
As discussions about the end of the U.S. government shutdown heat up, inflation data has returned to the forefront for the Federal Reserve and risk asset traders.
BREAKING: The U.S. Senate votes 60-40 to advance a bill in a major breakthrough to end the U.S. government shutdown.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be released on Thursday, along with initial jobless claims, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) the next day.
The end of the shutdown will provide a critical window into economic conditions, including the impact of U.S. trade tariffs.
These tariffs are currently under review by the Supreme Court, and any related announcements could inject new volatility into the market.
“During the data void, the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, and market volatility is returning,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized on Monday.
Kobeissi mentioned expectations for further rate cuts in 2025, with data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating that the Fed is expected to cut rates by another 0.25% at its December meeting.
With the U.S. outlook improving, stocks rebounding, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company believes the current market trend may be “the most unloved bull market ever.”
“While the impact of the government shutdown and speculation about its duration dominate headlines, private sector data suggests the economic backdrop still supports profit prospects,” it noted in its latest newsletter.
Mosaic also pointed to “excessive fear levels,” as reported by several market sentiment indicators.
“If the stock market climbs the ‘wall of worry,’ then this recent stock market rebound may be unprecedented in terms of investor fear relative to market gains,” it added.
Bitcoin reacted immediately to comments from U.S. President Donald Trump later on Sunday, who promised to pay $2,000 to most American citizens.
Related to Trump's international trade tariffs, this payment was disclosed in a post on Truth Social.
“A bonus of at least $2,000 (excluding high-income individuals!) will be paid to everyone,” the post stated.
In response, Kobeissi quickly likened this move to the stimulus checks during the COVID-19 period.
“Stimulus checks are officially back,” it wrote on X.
As Cointelegraph reported, the repeated issuance of checks at that time triggered a bullish price trend in the cryptocurrency market due to its implied impact on the U.S. money supply. The $1,200 checks from April 2020, when invested in Bitcoin, are now worth about $20,000.
Analysts told Cointelegraph last week that this time may not be different, as they focus on “additional liquidity catalysts.”
The increase in U.S. and international liquidity has supported the bullish case for cryptocurrencies throughout the year. The global broad money supply has now reached $142 trillion—a new record.
“Year-to-date, the money supply has surged +9.1%, primarily driven by China and the U.S.,” Kobeissi reported, describing the supply as “skyrocketing.”
Meanwhile, the tariff plans remain unresolved, with the U.S. Supreme Court deciding on their legality.
Bitcoin derivatives traders are “lacking confidence” in a bottom near $100,000, while open interest has rebounded.
Research from on-chain analysis platform Glassnode warns that “fear” remains the primary driver in the Bitcoin options market.
Later last week, analyzing put-call volume, Glassnode had little good news for bulls.
“Put-call volume shows a lack of confidence in the bottom. Bearish activity surged during price declines, then bullish volume spiked as traders rebounded near $100,000,” it wrote in an X thread.
Data further indicates that traders lack a long-term mindset regarding Bitcoin, even being skeptical about the possibility of a rebound to $120,000.
“Options data suggests the market remains in fear mode, with a lack of confidence in a lasting bottom,” the thread emphasized.
Open interest had significantly declined during price drops but has begun to slowly recover.
As Cointelegraph reported, bulls may need more time to stabilize prices and initiate their own rebound.
Bitcoin whales have made headlines during the BTC price decline, as relentless selling has left traders feeling anxious.
As Cointelegraph reported, 2025 is marked by long-term whales reducing their BTC holdings overall. On average, whales are selling more than 1,000 Bitcoins daily.
However, from a broader perspective, the accumulation of Bitcoin has been different. In its Sunday “Quicktake” blog post, on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant provided several bullish reasons.
“Today, these early large holders can finally exit the market more easily, making this distribution phase crucial,” contributor Darkfost stated.
The accompanying chart confirms that the annual change in whale holdings has remained positive over the past two years.
Even in recent months, the trend has stabilized—pointing to a brighter price outlook.
“After a strong August, whale holdings sharply dropped from 398,000 Bitcoins to 185,000 Bitcoins in October, just as Bitcoin broke through $123,000. Since then, accumulation has resumed, with holdings rising to 294,000 Bitcoins as of November 7,” the post continued.
Bitcoin accumulation wallets added a massive 50,000 Bitcoins to their total holdings in a single day when BTC/USD returned below the $100,000 level.
“From a medium to long-term perspective, some whales are still increasing their holdings, and the current trend looks completely different from the distribution phase at the end of the 2021 cycle,” Darkfost concluded.
Related: Bank of England launches stablecoin regulatory consultation, plans to issue final rules by 2026
Original article: “The Most Hated Bull Market Ever? 5 Things to Watch for Bitcoin (BTC) This Week”
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