Arthur Hayes foresees a powerful resurgence in bitcoin and crypto markets fueled by U.S. monetary expansion. The Bitmex co-founder wrote in his Nov. 4 essay Hallelujah that rising Treasury debt and the Federal Reserve’s growing balance sheet through its Standing Repo Facility (SRF) will inject liquidity and spark the next major bull cycle.

Hayes stated:

If the Fed’s balance sheet grows, that is dollar liquidity positive, and ultimately pumps the price of bitcoin and other cryptos.

He explained that U.S. deficits approaching $2 trillion annually require constant Treasury issuance, largely financed by leveraged investors relying on repo funding. When liquidity tightens, the SRF allows these investors to borrow from the Fed using Treasurys as collateral—effectively creating new money. Hayes called this mechanism “stealth QE,” noting that it quietly expands the money supply while policymakers deny engaging in quantitative easing. In his analysis, each increase in SRF balances signals that the Fed is monetizing government debt under a different label.

He further argued that expanding SRF activity is inherently bullish for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which thrive during periods of rising liquidity and declining real yields. As more dollars enter circulation, scarce digital assets are positioned to benefit most. Noting that current market weakness reflects temporary liquidity drains tied to Treasury funding pressures, Hayes said:

This phenomenon will reignite the bitcoin bull market.

He expects renewed capital inflows into bitcoin and the broader crypto market in the coming cycle, driven by stealth monetary easing that could boost global risk appetite. Hayes maintains his long-term forecast that bitcoin could reach $1 million, citing ongoing fiscal expansion, monetary debasement, and rising global demand for hard digital assets.

• Why does Arthur Hayes believe bitcoin will surge again?
  He links the next bitcoin bull run to U.S. monetary expansion and growing Fed liquidity that he says will pump digital assets.
• What is the Standing Repo Facility (SRF)?
  The SRF allows investors to borrow from the Fed using Treasurys as collateral, effectively adding new liquidity into the system.
• How does “stealth QE” impact crypto markets?
  Hayes argues that stealth QE quietly expands the money supply, driving capital into scarce assets like bitcoin and crypto.
• What does Hayes expect for the next crypto cycle?
  He predicts renewed inflows into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as global liquidity rises and investors seek higher returns.

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