According to Vineet Budki, CEO of venture capital firm Sigma Capital, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will continue to experience cyclical booms and busts, with a potential drawdown of up to 70% during the next market downturn.
Budki told Cointelegraph at the 2025 Global Blockchain Conference in Dubai, UAE, that BTC will see a correction of 65% to 70% within the next two years, as traders do not fully understand the assets they hold. He stated:
Nevertheless, Budki still predicts that Bitcoin will reach $1 million or more per coin within the next decade, and he noted that user adoption will grow through a combination of price speculation and, more importantly, real-world BTC use cases.
Analysts, industry executives, and investors continue to speculate on when Bitcoin will reach a seven-figure price, and whether the market dynamics that have defined BTC cycles since its inception in 2009 will still hold true in 2025.
According to market analyst and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, the four-year Bitcoin cycle has disappeared. Hayes stated that Bitcoin's price is now more influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates and the growth of the money supply, rather than cyclical patterns.
Other analysts point out that the growing institutional adoption and the presence of these financial institutions serve as a stabilizing force that can reduce price volatility and calm the market.
According to data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET, financial institutions, including governments, digital asset treasury companies, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and cryptocurrency exchanges, collectively hold over 4 million BTC, close to 20% of Bitcoin's total supply.
However, Seamus Rocca, CEO of crypto-friendly bank Xapo Bank, told Cointelegraph that the four-year cycle is still in effect, as investors currently view BTC as a risk asset, despite its value storage properties.
Related: U.S. Treasury Secretary Praises Singapore's Digital Asset Adoption at APEC Summit
Original article: “Sigma Capital: The Four-Year Cycle of Bitcoin (BTC) is Not Dead; A 70% Drop Expected in the Next Bear Market”
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