In a Polymarket wager that’s seen $106 million in volume, the 40th governor of California, Gavin Newsom, sits in second place with 21% odds and $1.53 million in market volume, slipping one point from prior trading sessions.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the U.S. representative for New York’s 14th congressional district, commonly known as AOC, is holding a modest 9%, buoyed by nearly $1 million in wagers. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump — who would be 82 by Election Day — interestingly, still captures a 5% chance with $1.68 million in volume, sharing the same percentage as the 72nd United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, whose odds ticked up by one point.

U.S. election winners are based on the Polymarket bet recorded on Nov. 2, 2025.

In a field that ranges from senators to celebrities, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Tucker Carlson each hold 3% odds, trailed by former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and Ivanka Trump — all languishing at 2–3%. Even Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Kim Kardashian register at 1%, with Ramaswamy still attracting over $8 million in lifetime volume.

In the Republican nomination market, JD Vance holds a commanding 59% chance of becoming the party’s 2028 pick, with $1.42 million traded. That’s more than eight times Marco Rubio’s 7%, and far ahead of Donald Trump at 4%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and journalist Tucker Carlson each stand at 3%, while Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are practically rounding errors at 2% and 1%, respectively.

Nominee winners are based on the Polymarket bet recorded on Nov. 2, 2025.

The GOP market data paints a picture of consolidation: traders see Vance as the clear Republican heir apparent, with the Trump dynasty slipping into single digits.

On the Democratic side, Newsom maintains a firm grip with 38% odds and $2.79 million in total volume — the single highest across all Democratic bets. AOC follows with 14%, her strongest showing yet, backed by $1.1 million in trades.

Nominee winners are based on the Polymarket bet recorded on Nov. 2, 2025.

Pete Buttigieg stands at 6%, Kamala Harris at 5%, and Josh Shapiro and Jon Ossoff both at 4%. Wes Moore rounds out the top contenders at 3%. Newsom’s slight 1% uptick this week keeps him comfortably ahead, but AOC’s rise hints that bettors see potential volatility in the Democratic field.

While political insiders dominate the upper ranks, Polymarket’s data proves that celebrity speculation still drives engagement. LeBron James has amassed a stunning $17.25 million in trading volume despite holding only 1% odds. Kim Kardashian’s market sits at 1% as well, but still has seen $7.8 million traded — more than most governors and senators combined.

Tulsi Gabbard and Greg Abbott each hover around 1% too, but both show consistent volume, suggesting niche but active trader interest.

Taken together, the prediction markets suggest traders are coalescing around a likely JD Vance vs. Gavin Newsom matchup. Vance dominates the Republican market with over half of the total probability share, while Newsom controls nearly two-fifths of the Democratic one. Both candidates’ odds have been climbing gradually through the fall.

That leaves the 2028 race shaping up — at least in the eyes of Polymarket’s betting crowd — as a generational contrast between two governors-turned-party standard-bearers. And if the numbers are any indication, the trading community sees America’s political future in younger hands rather than a Trumpian three-peat.

For those unfamiliar, Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market built on blockchain technology that allows traders to wager real money on political, economic, and cultural outcomes. It’s become a go-to signal for probabilistic sentiment ahead of major elections, often outperforming traditional polls in forecasting accuracy.

With millions flowing into the 2028 contracts — $6.7 million for Stephen Smith alone, $17 million for LeBron James, and $8 million for Ramaswamy — the data provides a pulse on where crypto-native traders believe America is heading next. Still, there’s more than three years left with the current administration.

If these markets are any indicator, JD Vance has emerged as the Republican favorite, while Gavin Newsom continues to reign among Democrats. Prediction traders see the rest as background noise — entertaining, but unlikely to clinch the Oval Office. With Polymarket’s numbers constantly updating, bettors are treating the 2028 race like a long, slow-motion horse race — one where the early favorites are already separating from the pack.

• What are JD Vance’s odds of winning the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
  As of Nov. 2, 2025, Vance leads the Polymarket prediction charts with 29% odds and over $2.15 million in trading volume.
• Who is favored to win the Democratic nomination in 2028?
  On the same day in November 2025, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is leading the Democratic market with 38% odds and $2.79 million in trades.
• Which prediction market is providing these 2028 election odds?
  All data is sourced from Polymarket’s live trading platform for the 2028 election contracts.
• Who are the top Republican and Democratic contenders overall?
  JD Vance dominates the Republican field, while Gavin Newsom tops the Democratic side, according to Polymarket’s wagers.

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