Argentine President Javier Milei’s party secured a surprise, but decisive victory in the nation’s midterm legislative elections on Sunday. And citizens concerned about the potential election results purchased hoards of U.S. dollar stablecoins over the weekend, with experts noting a significant surge in “crypto dollar” usage.
Facundo Werning, LATAM head for stablecoin issuer Agora and former Tether expansion manager for Argentina, told Decrypt that he saw a “notable increase in volume across the USD stablecoin to [Argentine peso] trading pair,” with a conservative estimate of $13.4 million in trading volume on Sunday.
Similarly, the South American crypto app Lemon attracted its third-highest single-day volume of all time on Sunday and the highest hour of volume ever at 9pm local time—when the results were announced.
The Argentine peso is a notoriously unstable currency. It hit a record low of 1,491.50 pesos per U.S. dollar on Friday, per Reuters, despite a $40 billion bailout package from President Trump. However, it appears that some citizens felt the peso would’ve crashed even harder if Milei’s right-wing party La Libertad Avanza (LLA) had not won the most seats.
Milei is a divisive figure in Argentina due to his radical economic plans and his ties to corruption scandals—including the infamous LIBRA meme coin. As such, his approval rating has declined in recent months, making the midterms a make-or-break election in the eyes of many.
Santiago Vivanco, an Argentine who works in finance, told Decrypt that he doesn’t know anyone who went into the election with large amounts of money in the Argentine peso.
Across the weekend, the chances that left-wing party Unión por la Patria would win the most seats peaked at 55% on Polymarket. Vivanco said that he was anticipating the peso would crash if Unión por la Patria had won, claiming its left-wing economic policies would be bad for the peso.
Equally, Trump said the U.S. would not “waste our time” helping Argentina if Milei had lost. As such, citizens were purchasing USD stablecoins to avoid a potential crash.
It's important to note that exchange rates in Argentina aren’t straightforward. There are multiple rates, including the “official rate” available at banks, but citizens are limited to withdrawing only $200 a month; the unofficial “blue dollar,” which is the improved exchange rate offered at street exchanges; and the “crypto dollar,” which is determined by supply and demand via stablecoins.
A major difference between these three rates is that the crypto dollar never stops operating, while the official banks and unofficial street exchanges shut shop during off-hours. Therefore, the crypto dollar becomes the best way to track the price of the peso, especially during weekend elections.
“This behavior turned the crypto dollar into something more than just a savings tool,” a spokesperson for Lemon told Decrypt. “It became a real-time thermometer of Argentina’s economic and political pulse when the traditional market is offline.”
As expectations shifted, votes were counted, and the results were revealed, the crypto dollar fluctuated in valuation. Argentine citizens swapped pesos for stablecoins and stablecoins for pesos, in an attempt to squeeze the most out of their volatile local currency.
A Lemon dashboard tracking the election showed that on Sunday, the local currency hit a low exchange rate of 1,572.50 ARS per crypto dollar at approximately 2pm local time. This quickly changed as the results became more apparent, hitting a high of 1,350 ARS per dollar at 10am on Monday.
“Over the weekend, we initially saw the crypto dollar rise dramatically, and as results came in on Sunday, we saw it plummet against the peso,” Werning told Decrypt.
“This signals optimistic market sentiment,” the Lemon spokesperson added.
It appears that markets have reacted favorably to Milei’s victory, with the peso looking stronger Monday than at its Friday close.
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