1. Technical Analysis: Rebound Momentum Full, Bollinger Bands Hide Secrets
In the 1-hour chart of ETH/USDT perpetual contracts, the Bollinger Bands show a "contraction followed by an upward attack" pattern: the current price of 3877.56 is approaching the upper band of 3897.05, indicating sufficient short-term rebound momentum; the 7-period MA (3845.14) and EMA (3849.81) form a strong support zone, with moving averages collectively turning upwards, solidifying the foundation for the rebound. Looking at the MACD indicator: green bars continue to shrink, red bars are emerging, and the DIF and DEA are about to golden cross, bullish momentum is explosively recovering—the technical rebound signal is very clear!
2. On-chain Data: Whales Quietly Accumulating, Retail Investors Still Hesitant
Through on-chain data monitoring, we have detected: in the past 24 hours, multiple large buy transfers have occurred from ETH "whale addresses" (holding over 10,000 coins), with over 200,000 ETH flowing from cold wallets into just Coinbase and Binance, which is a typical signal of institutional-level funds "buying the dip"! At the same time, the number of active addresses on the Ethereum chain has increased by 15% week-on-week, Gas fees remain low, and the on-chain ecosystem's activity is warming up, providing fundamental support for ETH's value.
3. News Front: ETF Expectations + Ecological Prosperity, Double Positive Impact
ETF Progress: The U.S. SEC's review of the ETH ETF has entered a "critical window period," with multiple institutions' applications moving into the "substantive evaluation stage," and the expectation for compliant products to land is continuously heating up, injecting strong external momentum into ETH.
Ecological Prosperity: Ethereum Layer 2 leaders Arbitrum and Optimism have reached new highs in trading volume, and the DeFi and NFT ecosystems remain hot, with ETH serving as the anchor point for ecological value, making the fundamental support increasingly solid.
Operational Strategy: Catch the Rhythm, Don’t Hesitate to Profit
Preferred (Short on Rejection): Short in three batches within the 3880–3895 range, with a stop loss at 3920, taking profits in batches at 3780 / 3700 / 3620; Alternative (Confirming Bullish): If it breaks out with volume and stabilizes above 3930 (1H close), switch to long, with a stop loss at 3890, targeting 4020 / 4100.
Support Levels: Gradually build long positions in the 3840-3820 range, relying on short-term moving averages and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands for defense;
Resistance Levels: The first target is the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 3897; if it breaks out with volume, it could reach the 3920-3950 range;
Risk Warning: If the price touches the resistance level and shows volume stagnation, it is necessary to decisively reduce positions to avoid a pullback.
The cryptocurrency market changes rapidly. Want to accurately grasp every rise and fall of ETH? Follow me, for daily in-depth analysis of technical aspects, on-chain data, and news, guiding you from being "harvested" to becoming a "profit taker"! Tomorrow at the same time, we will reveal hidden opportunities in BTC, don’t miss it! Follow the public account: Mu Zhou Talks Coins
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